weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 A good Euro 12Z run.....when have we seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why are all the 12z euro runs ok/decent and the 00z ones suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I agree about the early THU wintry mix potential. At the very least, it has to be watched. It wouldn't be anything too significant but it could be a problem for someone. Models are once again not handling the southern stream feature very well day 6-10. ECMWF has some company from a few GFS ensemble members (not all were quick to eject that wave out like the op). We'll see what the euro ensembles do. We are going to ride your back on this one. You are all we've got. Take us to the promised land. Rutgers FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 We are going to ride your back on this one. You are all we've got. Take us to the promised land. Rutgers FTW? Oh boy... With no blocking, this one is going to come down to good timing again. You can see that the GGEM, UKMET, ECMWF and a few GFS ensemble members are leaving that southern stream system behind with a very progressive/active northern stream. It is one after another, so expect more crazy medium range solutions to come. Of course, when is that not the case? It's like, no sh-t, HM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 HM storm is brewing d10 on today's euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why are all the 12z euro runs ok/decent and the 00z ones suck? A few years ago there was quite a discussion on this and a major difference in verification between the 0z and 12z. I don't believe anyone figured out why that was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Keep in mind the Euro's bias of holding back energy over the SW US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Oh boy... With no blocking, this one is going to come down to good timing again. You can see that the GGEM, UKMET, ECMWF and a few GFS ensemble members are leaving that southern stream system behind with a very progressive/active northern stream. It is one after another, so expect more crazy medium range solutions to come. Of course, when is that not the case? It's like, no sh-t, HM! It def does look like the majority of the modelling and their respective ensemble members are trying to conjure something up in the day 10-12 time frame. Hopefully it doesn';t end up as another Northern Maine snow event as we so often see with no blocking. Seems like there's growing concensus among the LR mets of some SSW as we head twds end of month. If so,, Jan may end up alot more wintry than what many are forecasting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I agree about the early THU wintry mix potential. At the very least, it has to be watched. It wouldn't be anything too significant but it could be a problem for someone. Models are once again not handling the southern stream feature very well day 6-10. ECMWF has some company from a few GFS ensemble members (not all were quick to eject that wave out like the op). We'll see what the euro ensembles do. I was hoping more in the 18th-20th..but it will come down to how the models handle that pesky sw cutoff. I do see what you mean about the 22-23rd or so. There is some ridging into the GOA which hopefully can deliver the cold far enough south. It seems that the SW cutoff will be there and it will eject disturbances out from time to time...but models will be horrible. GFS will probably suppress it all, and the euro will always have the bias in the southwest of digging the low to far south. What a nightmare...lol. With no blocking..we know what the risks can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Keep in mind the Euro's bias of holding back energy over the SW US. Always do. In this case, it has company (12z GGEM, UKMET and about 40-50% of the GFS ensemble members). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I was hoping more in the 18th-20th..but it will come down to how the models handle that pesky sw cutoff. I do see what you mean about the 22-23rd or so. There is some ridging into the GOA which hopefully can deliver the cold far enough south. It seems that the SW cutoff will be there and it will eject disturbances out from time to time...but models will be horrible. GFS will probably suppress it all, and the euro will always have the bias in the southwest of digging the low to far south. What a nightmare...lol. With no blocking..we know what the risks can be. It could be that soon (18th-20th) but then don't expect it to ride up the coast or come anywhere near us. If it phases with a northern s/w that soon, it will be a Midwest problem (12z ECMWF yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It could be that soon (18th-20th) but then don't expect it to ride up the coast or come anywhere near us. If it phases with a northern s/w that soon, it will be a Midwest problem (12z ECMWF yesterday). That's what I'm afraid and alluded to earlier...a very thread the needle situation. Even 2-4" followed by rain would work for me...just something to break up this pattern. But with that cutoff in the sw..I suppose timing will be all over the place. What looks like one period where we could see something turns into another. Models will be awful with that feature, as we know. Nothing really impresses me at all right now and we're going to need some good ridging into the GOA in order to even get a SWFE. However as usual, we'll hope that any "threat" will pan out for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Sunny and boring weather continues up here in C/NNE. Few inches of snow on the ground from about Plymouth NH north and west. With this pattern I don't bother looking at the models. Just fire up the computer earlyeach afternoon, read a page or two of this thread, get depressed and forget about the weather for another 24 hours. Winter sports enthuastists (probably spelled wrong) up here are going into panic mode, no good ice on the lakes, no snowmobiling and only limited skiing. The ski resorts must be spending alot of money trying to make snow in marginal cold conditions. I'll check back tomorrow for another depressing AMWX weather read! Chow... Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That's what I'm afraid and alluded to earlier...a very thread the needle situation. Even 2-4" followed by rain would work for me...just something to break up this pattern. But with that cutoff in the sw..I suppose timing will be all over the place. What looks like one period where we could see something turns into another. Models will be awful with that feature, as we know. Nothing really impresses me at all right now and we're going to need some good ridging into the GOA in order to even get a SWFE. However as usual, we'll hope that any "threat" will pan out for something. The only real news today from the global / tropical front is that the MJO / phase 5 convection induced East Asian MT is occurring. We'll see what that can do this week (probably nothing, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Sunny and boring weather continues up here in C/NNE. Few inches of snow on the ground from about Plymouth NH north and west. With this pattern I don't bother looking at the models. Just fire up the computer earlyeach afternoon, read a page or two of this thread, get depressed and forget about the weather for another 24 hours. Winter sports enthuastists (probably spelled wrong) up here are going into panic mode, no good ice on the lakes, no snowmobiling and only limited skiing. The ski resorts must be spending alot of money trying to make snow in marginal cold conditions. I'll check back tomorrow for another depressing AMWX weather read! Chow... Gene Ditto...me too! Weather is boring most of the time and fun some of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Perhaps I am a complete dumb arse for predicting accumulating snow dec 22-23 in New England, given the pattern, but I still think the threat is on. Will this upcoming scenario end up being like Dec 3-8 all over again in terms of evolution? I have no idea. A little panic has been taking over here during our record warm fall that has produced over 2 feet of snow for CNE and NNE and parts of SNE. I bet we have a widespread 4+ snowfall over most of New England before xmas. Gradients can look pretty warm from far out eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Meh... this is no big deal. Probably helping our consumerist economy. More people out shopping instead of buried under inches of deadly dendrites We survived 2006-2007 We survived 1979-1980 We will make it through this boring "almost" winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Euro ensembles offer a split flow pattern late in the period. By that, I mean some ridging in NW Canada and a strong cutoff low in the southwest US. If the ridging in Canada is strong enough, that may offer the hope of the period HM likes..or possibly afterwards like 25th or 26th, but again..just speculation. It's still not a pretty pattern, but it doesn't hurt to have ridging in NW Canada. With the +AO and sw trough, the se ridge is still alive and well, so you know what that can mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Euro ensembles offer a split flow pattern late in the period. By that, I mean some ridging in NW Canada and a strong cutoff low in the southwest US. If the ridging in Canada is strong enough, that may offer the hope of the period HM likes..or possibly afterwards like 25th or 26th, but again..just speculation. It's still not a pretty pattern, but it doesn't hurt to have ridging in NW Canada. With the +AO and sw trough, the se ridge is still alive and well, so you know what that can mean. Just catching up after a 48 hour weather hiatus. Glad to see nothing has changed from the all out torch-assault. It's sad when I'm looking at 11-15 day ensemble output and saying "well, it's not that bad" when most winters we'd be all in agreement those patterns are horrible. 12z Euro offers the hope for something around 12/22??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Today was the first below normal day at BDL since 11/24. 16 days straight at or above!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just catching up after a 48 hour weather hiatus. Glad to see nothing has changed from the all out torch-assault. It's sad when I'm looking at 11-15 day ensemble output and saying "well, it's not that bad" when most winters we'd be all in agreement those patterns are horrible. 12z Euro offers the hope for something around 12/22??? Yeah there was some improvements, but the overall pattern still looks hostile. The only difference is that NW Canada looks better and may offer a chance for the nrn jet to dip into the US, but it would have to be timed perfectly since the se ridge flexes. I thought something was also hinted at the 25-26, but looking for signs in the ensemble mean that far out is an act of desperation...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I agree with lc /jb and steve on big time weather pattern change coming in the next two weeks . Models wont see it for while but will likely have white christmas for sne and the Northeast area. When the change does come this month it will come hard with snow after snow . I still say above normal snowfall for Southern New England area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Meh... this is no big deal. Probably helping our consumerist economy. More people out shopping instead of buried under inches of deadly dendrites We survived 2006-2007 We survived 1979-1980 We will make it through this boring "almost" winter Saving on heating oil too, I suppose that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Today was the first below normal day at BDL since 11/24. 16 days straight at or above!!!! Same for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 A little panic has been taking over here during our record warm fall that has produced over 2 feet of snow for CNE and NNE and parts of SNE. I bet we have a widespread 4+ snowfall over most of New England before xmas. Gradients can look pretty warm from far out eh? Of those 2 feet, the vast majority has occurred prior to 11/1. The pattern blows....no need to sugar coat it. The 11/23 storm threaded the needle for you guys but overall it's a pattern only it's mother could love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Of those 2 feet, the vast majority has occurred prior to 11/1. The pattern blows....no need to sugar coat it. The 11/23 storm threaded the needle for you guys but overall it's a pattern only it's mother could love. 18z gfs is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Some pretty big differences between the 18z gfs and the 12z with the storm around the 18th........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Some pretty big differences between the 18z gfs and the 12z with the storm around the 18th........... 18z run being weenie again. That's the 1st period I was hoping, but it is heavy heavy needle threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Of those 2 feet, the vast majority has occurred prior to 11/1. The pattern blows....no need to sugar coat it. The 11/23 storm threaded the needle for you guys but overall it's a pattern only it's mother could love. I don't like a winter to blow its load too quickly....much prefer to have a long warm fall and warm pattern now. Once it changes we are in for a good ride. I think it changes by the 25th as you predicted. Yesterday was the 10th, very cold night last night, my pond frozen all day...the really strong + anomolies are gone. It's on schedule Rebbe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 18z run being weenie again. That's the 1st period I was hoping, but it is heavy heavy needle threading. Quite the east shift with that system, It would be a big weenie solution............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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