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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Oh okay. Sorry messenger. Love ya! haha

Anyway, yeah, not looking too bright

I'd saw off my hands before I'd ever want to be a mod. I'd like doing that as much as taking care of 45 kids ages 2 to 5 while trying to watch a football game. I think this site functions fine and the moderators do a pretty decent job overall.

But yes I was kidding and agreeing with you. At least for the reasonably foreseeable future, it looks not like much fun.

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I may be thinking too deeply, but what would an example be of a negative mtn torque event? I thought it was the result of the frictional force from strong westerly winds over the mtns of East Asia. Or, do I have this wrong?

Negative torque would be produced by higher surface pressures on the upslope side of the mountain range, and lower surface pressures on the downslope side, with westerly flow over the range ... momentum is then transferred from the atmosphere to the ground

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This my be the perfect winter to plan a trip south.

SnowNH is heeding to San Diego and perhaps the deep SW trof will make it hard to do outdoor stuff. I recall many a December week populated with rainy days in the 50s.....heck you can stay here for that..

Oh trust me, That has definitely crossed my mind lol. I'm actually starting to wonder if one day out there will be like 53 degrees and here it will be like 59 degrees. That would be a sick joke.

If a cutoff does happen tho, it really wouldn't bother me. I am at a rented beach house with my family and brother (who lives out there) and I don't have to work. Sounds much better than sitting in MHT where it actually is supposed to to snow from Dec. 18-25.

Heavy Heavy Wine... heck maybe even a drunken meltdown post on like Wendsday lol

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C'mon guys paint it however you want but when the GFS can't even deliver a snowstorm inside of 324 hours we're screwed. This is the model that routinely has 3 or 4 snowstorms per run even post changes during the good times.

IMO the first step towards the eventual change is going to be more storms first, then cold and storms. We're starting to see evidence of more storms towards the 20th, which should hopefully lead to a change in early January.

Interesting way to put it.

We need some significant medium wavelength storm to shake things up.

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I'd saw off my hands before I'd ever want to be a mod. I'd like doing that as much as taking care of 45 kids ages 2 to 5 while trying to watch a football game. I think this site functions fine and the moderators do a pretty decent job overall.

But yes I was kidding and agreeing with you. At least for the reasonably foreseeable future, it looks not like much fun.

:lol:

Like I said, I was in fight mode lol! Sorry.

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Negative torque would be produced by higher surface pressures on the upslope side of the mountain range, and lower surface pressures on the downslope side, with westerly flow over the range ... momentum is then transferred from the atmosphere to the ground

Alright so I had the right thinking I guess. Sort of that convergence you can get from flow "piling up" on the windward side of the mtns. That's what I figured. Thanks.

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Head up to eh mountains....perhaps the snow level will be low enough for you to have the last laugh on all of us.

The mountains aren't doing too bad. Just getting by.

I'm heading to Anchorage, AK for a few days next week though, so maybe I can get a little fun there.

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I'm not optimistic at all for the next month....wouldn't be shocked to sit here on Jan 15th with 5.5" of snow still.

I wouldn't be shocked either I suppose. Hard to imagine good times during the bad.

But we are seeing some positive signs in the stratosphere now, and tropical forcing has moved out of the Indian Ocean and over Indonesia, which is making some positive progress. Who knows. Maybe things will come together for a second epic January in a row

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I wouldn't be shocked either I suppose. Hard to imagine good times during the bad.

But we are seeing some positive signs in the stratosphere now, and tropical forcing has moved out of the Indian Ocean and over Indonesia, which is making some positive progress. Who knows. Maybe things will come together for a second epic January in a row

I still think the second half of winter may hold some tricks. I don't think it will totally follow the same path as previous Feb and Mar have done. I think the first part of January may be shot, but hoping that it improves as we head through the month. Hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised, but I'm just going to keep things in perspective for now.

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I still think the second half of winter may hold some tricks. I don't think it will totally follow the same path as previous Feb and Mar have done. I think the first part of January may be shot, but hoping that it improves as we head through the month. Hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised, but I'm just going to keep things in perspective for now.

I'm not sold early January is shot yet, I'll give it another week or so.

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Perhaps I am a complete dumb arse for predicting accumulating snow dec 22-23 in New England, given the pattern, but I still think the threat is on.

Will this upcoming scenario end up being like Dec 3-8 all over again in terms of evolution? I have no idea.

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Perhaps I am a complete dumb arse for predicting accumulating snow dec 22-23 in New England, given the pattern, but I still think the threat is on.

Will this upcoming scenario end up being like Dec 3-8 all over again in terms of evolution? I have no idea.

I'm hoping the 18-20 tries to do something, but I admit the snow threats haven't been turning out all to well..lol.

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I'm hoping the 18-20 tries to do something, but I admit the snow threats haven't been turning out all to well..lol.

I agree about the early THU wintry mix potential. At the very least, it has to be watched. It wouldn't be anything too significant but it could be a problem for someone.

Models are once again not handling the southern stream feature very well day 6-10. ECMWF has some company from a few GFS ensemble members (not all were quick to eject that wave out like the op). We'll see what the euro ensembles do.

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