CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS is going to do exactly what I didn't want...lol. Eh, who knows at 180 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The GFS at hr 150 looks like it is trying to brew something. That's the potential "threat" in the 18-20 time. But it could be close to a threading the needle event. You have a pretty strong sw US trough with a very cold airmass across se Canada. If the trough in se Canada is too quick in moving out, the storm could go west. Going to take a festivas miracle with the high pressure slipping like that. Old cold air and a track that looks like it wants to at least attempt to go west of us. It's 12/11, the month is more than a 1/3 over. Temps are well above normal snow below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That's what I thought...lol why do you even have it? Why? Bad juju? I'm out...GL w the rest of this afternoon's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Could be decent if we can hold the CAD from retreating, 504 dm in northern maine As currently modeled, the timing is poor with the shortwave being slow to amplify and move east, allowing the high pressure to slide offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS is going to do exactly what I didn't want...lol. Eh, who knows at 180 hrs out. Yeah, Track west of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Truncates and moves due ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Disaster continues on both GFS/EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Problem is that we haven't seen AAM anomalies characteristic of a La Nina. They've been mostly neutral, with the GWO oscillating right around the center. We need a more negative AAM regime to establish itself. Right now, propagation of positive anomalies northward is fueling a strong Pacific jet, and solidifying the polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I take it FWIW, Its out past 7 days, Still time for changes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The making of the xmas blizzard at hr 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The making of the xmas blizzard at hr 288 That storm has been there almost every run for the past 3 days, and now its pretty much inside 300hrs...lock it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Problem is that we haven't seen AAM anomalies characteristic of a La Nina. They've been mostly neutral, with the GWO oscillating right around the center. We need a more negative AAM regime to establish itself. Right now, propagation of positive anomalies northward is fueling a strong Pacific jet, and solidifying the polar vortex But how come the MJO is in classic Nina form? If the AAM isn't in Nina form, how can the MJO be? I thought there is a relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 C'mon guys paint it however you want but when the GFS can't even deliver a snowstorm inside of 324 hours we're screwed. This is the model that routinely has 3 or 4 snowstorms per run even post changes during the good times. IMO the first step towards the eventual change is going to be more storms first, then cold and storms. We're starting to see evidence of more storms towards the 20th, which should hopefully lead to a change in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I take it FWIW, Its out past 7 days, Still time for changes.. It's not worth the time. Get outside, run around, enjoy life. Two trends are likely with this set-up: 1) The progression of disturbances that bring the cold air next weekend gradually wavebreak a little further northward with each run, and forecasts get progressively warmer. 2) The s/w moving into the Pacific NW behind the cut off low becomes more amplified with each run, amplifying ridging over the SE, and tugging (maybe phasing) the cut off low to the northeast. Give up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Beautiful day today near the climo norm. Overall, while I trilled with my 1/10-/125 while at the gtg last nigh, I thiink those dates may be the new mantra. Beautiful day today near the climo norm. Overall, while I trolled with my 1/10-/125 while at the gtg last nigh, I thiink those dates may be the new mantra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It's not worth the time. Get outside, run around, enjoy life. Two trends are likely with this set-up: 1) The progression of disturbances that bring the cold air next weekend gradually wavebreak a little further northward with each run, and forecasts get progressively warmer. 2) The s/w moving into the Pacific NW behind the cut off low becomes more amplified with each run, amplifying ridging over the SE, and tugging (maybe phasing) the cut off low to the northeast. Give up now. You should take some time away from the board. This type of reasoning is not permitted here. GFS heading towards the pain at the end. High getting ready to go Hanz and Franz in the SE and the pattern is going horizontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 C'mon guys paint it however you want but when the GFS can't even deliver a snowstorm inside of 324 hours we're screwed. This is the model that routinely has 3 or 4 snowstorms per run even post changes during the good times. IMO the first step towards the eventual change is going to be more storms first, then cold and storms. We're starting to see evidence of more storms towards the 20th, which should hopefully lead to a change in early January. I think most are resigned to the fact that we'll get next to nothing through at least mid January....I know I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 But how come the MJO is in classic Nina form? If the AAM isn't in Nina form, how can the MJO be? I thought there is a relationship. There is a relationship, but there's also a separate mode of variability in the AAM, usually connected to mountain torque toward the subtropics. We have seen at least two distinct east Asian positive torques in the last 40 days that contributes to strengthening westerlies in the upper mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There is a relationship, but there's also a separate mode of variability in the AAM, usually connected to mountain torque toward the subtropics. We have seen at least two distinct east Asian positive torques in the last 40 days that contributes to strengthening westerlies in the upper mid latitudes. I thought Mt torque events in East Asia actually helped with forming -EPO ridges. Or perhaps the westerlies are just too anomalous to allow blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS heading towards the pain at the end. High getting ready to go Hanz and Franz in the SE and the pattern is going horizontal. Not exactly http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNA372.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You should take some time away from the board. This type of reasoning is not permitted here. GFS heading towards the pain at the end. High getting ready to go Hanz and Franz in the SE and the pattern is going horizontal. No, you should take some time away from the board.... I was told my a certain poster on here that we'd be cold by Thanksgiving and snowing by the first. This kinda works out perfect for me, I get to take a nice break from this monotonous weather/ discussion and I won't miss anything but Rain and Above normal temps when I'm gone. I just have to PRAY something changes for when I get back or I'll have another meltdown. I'm probably just going to re read the 10/29 thread until the patriots... You kidding me? "not permitted"? Is this like your campaign to be a mod? That reasoning is perfectly legitimate, based on standard model trends and the large scale pattern in place. He's being sarcastic Sam.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There are plently of winter enthusiasts in the east ready to go horizontal....I'll tell you that. Count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You kidding me? "not permitted"? Is this like your campaign to be a mod? That reasoning is perfectly legitimate, based on standard model trends and the large scale pattern in place. He was joking. He agrees with you. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I thought Mt torque events in East Asia actually helped with forming -EPO ridges. Or perhaps the westerlies are just too anomalous to allow blocking? Negative torques do ... producing easterly anomalies that propagate northward. Positive torques produce westerly anomalies that are linked to +EPO and amplified polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 He was joking. He agrees with you. lol Oh okay. Sorry messenger. Love ya! haha Anyway, yeah, not looking too bright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Where do you want meal 1 messenger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You kidding me? "not permitted"? Is this like your campaign to be a mod? That reasoning is perfectly legitimate, based on standard model trends and the large scale pattern in place. Your sense of humor needs work....it's going to take something far more powerful than an amped up MJO wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Negative torques do ... producing easterly anomalies that propagate northward. Positive torques produce westerly anomalies that are linked to +EPO and amplified polar vortex Oh right....ok that makes sense. Gotcha. Thanks Sam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Your sense of humor needs work....it's going to take something far more powerful than an amped up MJO wave. I was in the mindset to defend against snow weenies bashing my rapid dismissal of the threat lol I have been away from the board for a bit, so I didn't know in what stage of grief everyone was at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Negative torques do ... producing easterly anomalies that propagate northward. Positive torques produce westerly anomalies that are linked to +EPO and amplified polar vortex I may be thinking too deeply, but what would an example be of a negative mtn torque event? I thought it was the result of the frictional force from strong westerly winds over the mtns of East Asia. Or, do I have this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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