CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol..congrats MRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Take a good look at the GFS...that's about as good as it will get and about a 1 in 100 shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm so perplexed. Every sign points to q winter like I originally forecasted. Yet the squirrels are as fat as I've ever seen them and that has never failed to be a huge snow signal. I'm wondering if we end up with big snow but above normal temps? I think it's just going to take some time. If you look at the last month we are gradually heading in the right direction but we all keep looking for that defining event that marks the change - I don't think that's going to happen, I think it's just this gradual shift. We are getting our shots about every 2-3 weeks, this week is our shot. Some mood snow around the 6-7th and a shot at something bigger...that's how last winter started too. I made a post about a week ago, that some of the big AO regimes eventually flipped negative like 4-6 weeks after they peaked. I think we have to be careful of some of those years because ENSO might be different, but a co-worker of mine was looking back at these big AO regimes in November/December and then rolling forward. Below I feel like we may finally see a semblance to a second half winter. I could be wrong, but there are a few signs that it could happen. We are getting there. we will have shots this week but whether it's like last year where they target SE areas or miss who nows. I think by January we are looking good and if not we are going to be in one of those really extreme years and it could be unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Will made a point in the MA thread...funny how it bombs like that with a deamplifying S/W. It can still strengthen...but looks funny as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol..congrats MRG MRG>Never lose faith, ULLR always delivers>MRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Will made a point in the MA thread...funny how it bombs like that with a deamplifying S/W. It can still strengthen...but looks funny as shown. Actually it is more compact upon further look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 12Z GFS says that my thoughts on late week may have some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Good to see the GFS give Pete and Rick snow. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Eh, I wouldn't get excited just yet. The GFS is on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 If Kevin wasn't in Buffalo he'd toss the 00z euro and claim something about a bias...and how the 12z gfs has the most realistic situation and this is the one time it should be used. Then he'd make some comment about how some obscure model like the JMA agrees and we should lock up the storm for Thursday. well he could accept the GFS, but it's a rain storm for him anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL I didn't even pay much attention to exactly who it was getting the best ...just happy to see it shows something to track. Now JI will have to come back over to this sub forum maybe. Good to see the GFS give Pete and Rick snow. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS is legimimtely bitter for Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The northern stream is even faster this run...maybe it's giving the srn vort a little more room to play with and not put completely through the paper shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 well he could accept the GFS, but it's a rain storm for him anyway. Yeah I deleted the post, it was only out to 96hr for me when I posted that. It looks like its barely snow for Pete. I don't know what's wrong with the twisterdata snow maps though, it shows 6+ for almost all of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Take a good look at the GFS...that's about as good as it will get and about a 1 in 100 shot. It's the GFS but I don't think it's unreasonable that the low ends up further north and stronger than the 0z. The SE ridge is stronger this run and the energy doesn't dig as far south. That said: And and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 KBUF: Overcast and Breezy BKN040 BKN050 OVC170 53 31 well he could accept the GFS, but it's a rain storm for him anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well the PV is really rather far north ....there is some room maybe. The northern stream is even faster this run...maybe it's giving the srn vort a little more room to play with and not put completely through the paper shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS is legimimtely bitter for Friday and Saturday. Widespread teens on Friday morning...with the coast struggling to freezing and elevated interior staying in the 20s and probably only mid 20s for Pete at 2K...that would be nice. Saturday morning is probably single digits for some areas...teens at the coast. But its day 5 on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yesterday the GFS had a cutter to the west. Then it lost it. Then last night well out to sea south of NE. 6Z had it closer and 12Z brought it further NW. Every run is different but it seems to want to do something late next week. 100 hours out is not that far but models are all over the place. Fun for theweenies for next couple of hours till Dr No comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well the PV is really rather far north ....there is some room maybe. I think someone is going to get nailed and that someone could be anyone from Phil and messenger to our friends in buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm so perplexed. Every sign points to q winter like I originally forecasted. Yet the squirrels are as fat as I've ever seen them and that has never failed to be a huge snow signal. I'm wondering if we end up with big snow but above normal temps? I think that is quite possible. I mentioned it to torchylibations a while back. lol..congrats MRG Take a good look at the GFS...that's about as good as it will get and about a 1 in 100 shot. You always want to take my snow. MRG>Never lose faith, ULLR always delivers>MRG I'm going to start sacrificing twice a day. It always works. Good to see the GFS give Pete and Rick snow. Phew. Thanks for caring Scooter, You're a good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The northern stream is even faster this run...maybe it's giving the srn vort a little more room to play with and not put completely through the paper shredder. GFS loves to speed up the nrn stream sometimes. Will be interesting to see the euro. I'm not shocked by something like that, but it really is threading the needle..lol. Makes me think that solution right there is hard to believe at this moment...but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Clown map for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS loves to speed up the nrn stream sometimes. Will be interesting to see the euro. I'm not shocked by something like that, but it really is threading the needle..lol. Makes me think that solution right there is hard to believe at this moment...but we'll see. Yeah odds of this verifying are low... but I've thought for the last day or two Thursday had some potential. Threading the needle is an understatement lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 At least all the guidance bring us below normal for at least a few days. That in itself is quite novel this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Clown map for your area. Sorry messenger....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS loves to speed up the nrn stream sometimes. Will be interesting to see the euro. I'm not shocked by something like that, but it really is threading the needle..lol. Makes me think that solution right there is hard to believe at this moment...but we'll see. So did the 00z euro get warm here on Friday-Saturday? It's amazing how cold the gfs is, looks like 20s for highs Friday-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yeah odds of this verifying are low... but I've thought for the last day or two Thursday had some potential. Threading the needle is an understatement lol Yeah still hoping the next week or so has something in the timeline we were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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