powderfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 And at times we've had ridging in nw Canada. In fact, the EC ensembles do try to indicate that, which might...might try to help out near Christmas, but we have a -PNA pattern with a raging +AO. Together, they combine with a stout se ridge. If that ridge happened to be a little weaker, or the AO relaxed a little...we would have had a decent winter. Canada looks like it could get colder after Christmas, so we'll see if that tries to seep south. I'm hoping January tries to get a little better with some SWFE. Even if it does get cold, we need to start to see more storminess across the country. Its been very dry lately (of course it warms up to rain) but there just aren't a lot of systems moving through. Even if temps are a bit mild, it would be nice to start to see some precip events every few days instead of maybe 1 per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 06z GFS doesn't even show much in the way of ice...surface is well above freezing into western Maine. The high slips offshore too quickly and sets up SE flow off really warm SSTs. I don't think this is any more than a rain storm. I wouldn't expect the GFS to be correct with the 0C line at the surface. There will probably be some mixed precip at first in NNE, but it will likely go over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 06z GFS doesn't even show much in the way of ice...surface is well above freezing into western Maine. The high slips offshore too quickly and sets up SE flow off really warm SSTs. I don't think this is any more than a rain storm. Now this will have substantial ice for many in NNE. Euro had that signal as well. I wouldn't base the forecast on the d4-5 off hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I will rofl of somehow Logan gets an inch out of something like that. LOL, no I wouldn't expect any accumulation because of the warmer boundary layer. I just threw it out there for something semi-interesting. It very well might not even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Anyway.....quiet week wxwise. Works for my big event next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Now this will have substantial ice for many in NNE. Euro had that signal as well. I wouldn't base the forecast on the d4-5 off hour GFS. I disagree that the ice will be substantial. To have a significant ice event, you need the high pressure farther west so you have NE/ENE flow at the surface to counter the strong SW winds in the mid-levels. In this case, the high is way offshore...ice doesn't last very long with SE winds coming from the warm ocean. Will a few high valleys see some minor icing before going over to rain? Probably. But the antecedent airmass and the position of the high argue against a larger ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I wouldn't expect the GFS to be correct with the 0C line at the surface. There will probably be some mixed precip at first in NNE, but it will likely go over to rain. Yeah I was just going by climo... in those situations the low mountain hollows and towns will always take a while to scour out the surface air. Its the same when folks use that product to show why an event will be all rain in SNE but then you, Will, and others tear them a new one saying the models will always scour out the cold too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I wouldn't expect the GFS to be correct with the 0C line at the surface. There will probably be some mixed precip at first in NNE, but it will likely go over to rain. Your right, Why would it start now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I just use the NAM and GFS to fill in the time slot between the 0z-12z Euro run......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 70 for somebody later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 abandon ship. pattern sucks. prepare the lawn chairs and speedos. December is over. done. dead. kaput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 abandon ship. pattern sucks. prepare the lawn chairs and speedos. December is over. done. dead. kaput. what happened to our cold and snow you kept talking about all fall:(? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 70 for somebody later next week? Maybe the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 70 for somebody later next week? A weenie suicide watch has been issued for most of NewEngland, keep an eye on your snow and cold loving friends until the pattern breaks.... .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Not up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Maybe the Carolinas? I was thinking ewr easily, enjoy the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 what happened to our cold and snow you kept talking about all fall:(? I woke up this morning and the sun was gone. December was never a lock on anything good here. Though my pattern call was off too. We'll see how January performs. It has always held more promise than December. I haven't had any time to really dive into long range stuff for the last few weeks. I just glance at ensembles. But in the interest of simplicity, I call December dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 A weenie suicide watch has been issued for most of NewEngland, keep an eye on your snow and cold loving fiends until the pattern breaks.... .... Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 W~I~N~T~E~R C~A~N~C~E~L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 W~I~N~T~E~R C~A~N~C~E~L You need to pick a side and stay with it, You flop around like a fish out of water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 W~I~N~T~E~R C~A~N~C~E~L Cool trolling bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Fixed +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS not very torchy up here next week, Gets pretty cold after the FROPA on thurs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The GFS at hr 150 looks like it is trying to brew something. That's the potential "threat" in the 18-20 time. But it could be close to a threading the needle event. You have a pretty strong sw US trough with a very cold airmass across se Canada. If the trough in se Canada is too quick in moving out, the storm could go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Cool trolling bro. Just having a little fun in a ridiculously warm and boring weather pattern thats on month 4, until we can get some sustained ridging up over Greenland with some high latitude blocking its more of the same with one or two day transient cold shots. I think will, scooter, ryan and tippy have laid out the pattern pretty well. Not much to talk about, cant control the weather just have to enjoy whatever comes our way, and next week its rain and a torch. Happy Festivus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS not very torchy up here next week, Gets pretty cold after the FROPA on thurs.. Yeah. Next weekend promises to be very cold. Something brewing near AR/MO. Maybe we can get that to be a SWFE. Nice 1036 HP north, blocking it from driving into the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah. Next weekend promises to be very cold. Something brewing near AR/MO. Maybe we can get that to be a SWFE. Nice 1036 HP north, blocking it from driving into the GL. Where is your avatar from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Where is your avatar from? I think it's from that early Feb (bust) you guys had last winter. Post hour 162, looks like most energy hangs back to the SW, allowing the HP to become less ideal. With that monster SE ridge, this will find a way to cut west. (at least as modeled 7+ days out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah. Next weekend promises to be very cold. Something brewing near AR/MO. Maybe we can get that to be a SWFE. Nice 1036 HP north, blocking it from driving into the GL. Could be decent if we can hold the CAD from retreating, 504 dm in northern maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I think it's from that early Feb (bust) you guys had last winter. That's what I thought...lol why do you even have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.