HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Bears watching Would be nice to see a long term verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Thats pretty accurate for here, Close to 90% chance of a white christmas, Otherwise then that ,This pattern blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Some of the big boys in LR forecasting are now offering some positive things as we head twds the last 10 days of the month. Maybe we can up our chances of a white Christmas from 10% to 15% Did you throw in the towel yesterday on this winter season? Your mood swings more than a pregnant chick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 No sense of wishcasting a good pattern in here, tried being positive but the weather just does not care, this year has one theme and one theme only.............. winter cancel and............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I can hardly read a map and I have missed this conversation for the last couple day but when I look at that I see a big ridge bulding towards the pole (-AO), a vortex over Hudson Bay and a SE Ridge. There is low pressure in the SW. Wouldn't those lows be ejected into a pressing gradient giving us swfe? I opened that image at the gtg last night and the mets started crying. We had to call for help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I opened that image at the gtg last night and the mets started crying. We had to call for help. Boys really were crying for their mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Boys really were crying for their mama. Those ambulances that kept driving by were trying to find the weather related heart attack victims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Those ambulances that kept driving by were trying to find the weather related heart attack victims They were going to Will's apt after he saw the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Not going to lie...pants are getting a little cranky. Pre-treating with Tide will take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Thats pretty accurate for here, Close to 90% chance of a white christmas, Otherwise then that ,This pattern blows Yeah 90%+ chance of white Xmas seems pretty correct here. Someone who's worked at a lodge in town for quite some time said they can't remember the last truly brown Xmas holiday season. I guess to have a white Christmas it doesn't have to be a foot of snow, I have a feeling it'll end up looking like it does today with a couple inches of snow cover. As long as we can get a cold shot or two right before Xmas, the orographics around here will transfer that cold into a white ground. Growing up in the Hudson Valley it seemed like a 50% shot... but that's why I moved to an area with an insurance policy in the name of the Green Mountain Spine, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Last year we did not have a major snowstorm until the 26th, so why is this early season so much worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Pre-treating with Tide will take care of that. I might just have to put a match to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ok, so ORH is +8.2 for December, this week is an inferno especially late week with possibly RECORD breaking heat, December now has a very legit chance to be the warmest ever on record and this met winter should be top 3 warmest met winters ever, the records keep falling, stock up on sunscreen and banana hammocks folks.........best winter ever has arrived. Circle of Sizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 But I did think that looked like a Cahir's Ridge over there..... I opened that image at the gtg last night and the mets started crying. We had to call for help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 More of the same from last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Last year we did not have a major snowstorm until the 26th, so why is this early season so much worse? Well the pattern could always change in a couple of weeks I suppose, but the difference between last year and this year is the pattern. Last year the pattern become more favorable before Christmas in which the Cape got upwards of a foot of snow on the 20-21. The pattern this year is horrible. and it doesn't look like it wants to break anytime soon. At least we are getting deeper into winter, so even fleeting cold airmasses will allow for mixed precip. It's harder to do that in late November/early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 But I did think that looked like a Cahir's Ridge over there..... Thats what's so frustrating. We've had cold on our side. But we can't get to it. Without Cahirs wed have a full blown 2001-02 complete with the dryness IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ok, so ORH is +8.2 for December, this week is an inferno especially late week with possibly RECORD breaking heat, December now has a very legit chance to be the warmest ever on record and this met winter should be top 3 warmest met winters ever, the records keep falling, stock up on sunscreen and banana hammocks folks.........best winter ever has arrived. Circle of Sizzle Break out the toaster, all rain to northern Maine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Last year we did not have a major snowstorm until the 26th, so why is this early season so much worse? You were below normal mtd last year. Probably a difference of 10F in temps 2010 vs 2011. Don't compare the months, it is a ridiculous comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Break out the toaster, all rain to northern Maine: Low levels are a lot colder than H85 at the time of that map... its still not pretty here, but I bet that's ice up near SkierinVermont in Rangley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I can only pray that spring is not a disaster, hopefully above normal SSTS will help the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Thats what's so frustrating. We've had cold on our side. But we can't get to it. Without Cahirs wed have a full blown 2001-02 complete with the dryness IMHO. And at times we've had ridging in nw Canada. In fact, the EC ensembles do try to indicate that, which might...might try to help out near Christmas, but we have a -PNA pattern with a raging +AO. Together, they combine with a stout se ridge. If that ridge happened to be a little weaker, or the AO relaxed a little...we would have had a decent winter. Canada looks like it could get colder after Christmas, so we'll see if that tries to seep south. I'm hoping January tries to get a little better with some SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Low levels are a lot colder than H85 at the time of that map... its still not pretty here, but I bet that's ice up near SkierinVermont in Rangley. YIPEE ice ice baby lol thats a very telling post right there folks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Wednesday is going to bust cold for a change.....high to the north ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Wednesday is going to bust cold for a change.....high to the north ftw. Yeah it could be chilly around here. Probably some OE sprinkles/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ok, so ORH is +8.2 for December, this week is an inferno especially late week with possibly RECORD breaking heat, December now has a very legit chance to be the warmest ever on record and this met winter should be top 3 warmest met winters ever, the records keep falling, stock up on sunscreen and banana hammocks folks.........best winter ever has arrived. Circle of Sizzle Burlington is +5.5F so far... Montpelier is +5.8F... Morrisville-Stowe is +6.5F Our average overnight mins at MVL are colder than BTV/MPV, and we haven't been getting close to normal so that's why MVL is a degree higher than BTV. I'd suspect a lot of the normally colder mountain valleys are seeing similar departures due to the lack of really cold mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 YIPEE ice ice baby lol thats a very telling post right there folks lol Wow, ice-->rain in NW Maine in mid-December. That's something to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There might be a weak coastal front Wednesday. Sometimes there is a band of "steadier" precip along that convergence line. It is possible that might spit out some snow or graupel if it comes down heavier over se mass. Otherwise it's just a little light QPF with sprinkles or flurries. LOL, that's the extent of the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 06z GFS doesn't even show much in the way of ice...surface is well above freezing into western Maine. The high slips offshore too quickly and sets up SE flow off really warm SSTs. I don't think this is any more than a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There might be a weak coastal front Wednesday. Sometimes there is a band of "steadier" precip along that convergence line. It is possible that might spit out some snow or graupel if it comes down heavier over se mass. Otherwise it's just a little light QPF with sprinkles or flurries.LOL, that's the extent of the excitement. I will rofl of somehow Logan gets an inch out of something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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