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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Some of the big boys in LR forecasting are now offering some positive things as we head twds the last 10 days of the month. Maybe we can up our chances of a white Christmas from 10% to 15%

Did you throw in the towel yesterday on this winter season? Your mood swings more than a pregnant chick...hotdog.gifhotdog.gifhotdog.gif

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I can hardly read a map and I have missed this conversation for the last couple day but when I look at that I see a big ridge bulding towards the pole (-AO), a vortex over Hudson Bay and a SE Ridge. There is low pressure in the SW. Wouldn't those lows be ejected into a pressing gradient giving us swfe?

I opened that image at the gtg last night and the mets started crying. We had to call for help.

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Thats pretty accurate for here, Close to 90% chance of a white christmas, Otherwise then that ,This pattern blows

Yeah 90%+ chance of white Xmas seems pretty correct here. Someone who's worked at a lodge in town for quite some time said they can't remember the last truly brown Xmas holiday season. I guess to have a white Christmas it doesn't have to be a foot of snow, I have a feeling it'll end up looking like it does today with a couple inches of snow cover. As long as we can get a cold shot or two right before Xmas, the orographics around here will transfer that cold into a white ground.

Growing up in the Hudson Valley it seemed like a 50% shot... but that's why I moved to an area with an insurance policy in the name of the Green Mountain Spine, lol.

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Ok, so ORH is +8.2 for December, this week is an inferno especially late week with possibly RECORD breaking heat, December now has a very legit chance to be the warmest ever on record and this met winter should be top 3 warmest met winters ever, the records keep falling, stock up on sunscreen and banana hammocks folks.........best winter ever has arrived.sun.gifsun.gifsun.gif

Circle of Sizzle

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Last year we did not have a major snowstorm until the 26th, so why is this early season so much worse?

Well the pattern could always change in a couple of weeks I suppose, but the difference between last year and this year is the pattern. Last year the pattern become more favorable before Christmas in which the Cape got upwards of a foot of snow on the 20-21.

The pattern this year is horrible. and it doesn't look like it wants to break anytime soon. At least we are getting deeper into winter, so even fleeting cold airmasses will allow for mixed precip. It's harder to do that in late November/early December.

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Ok, so ORH is +8.2 for December, this week is an inferno especially late week with possibly RECORD breaking heat, December now has a very legit chance to be the warmest ever on record and this met winter should be top 3 warmest met winters ever, the records keep falling, stock up on sunscreen and banana hammocks folks.........best winter ever has arrived.sun.gifsun.gifsun.gif

Circle of Sizzle

Break out the toaster, all rain to northern Maine:

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Thats what's so frustrating. We've had cold on our side. But we can't get to it. Without Cahirs wed have a full blown 2001-02 complete with the dryness IMHO.

And at times we've had ridging in nw Canada. In fact, the EC ensembles do try to indicate that, which might...might try to help out near Christmas, but we have a -PNA pattern with a raging +AO. Together, they combine with a stout se ridge. If that ridge happened to be a little weaker, or the AO relaxed a little...we would have had a decent winter. Canada looks like it could get colder after Christmas, so we'll see if that tries to seep south. I'm hoping January tries to get a little better with some SWFE.

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Ok, so ORH is +8.2 for December, this week is an inferno especially late week with possibly RECORD breaking heat, December now has a very legit chance to be the warmest ever on record and this met winter should be top 3 warmest met winters ever, the records keep falling, stock up on sunscreen and banana hammocks folks.........best winter ever has arrived.sun.gifsun.gifsun.gif

Circle of Sizzle

Burlington is +5.5F so far... Montpelier is +5.8F... Morrisville-Stowe is +6.5F

Our average overnight mins at MVL are colder than BTV/MPV, and we haven't been getting close to normal so that's why MVL is a degree higher than BTV. I'd suspect a lot of the normally colder mountain valleys are seeing similar departures due to the lack of really cold mornings.

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There might be a weak coastal front Wednesday. Sometimes there is a band of "steadier" precip along that convergence line. It is possible that might spit out some snow or graupel if it comes down heavier over se mass. Otherwise it's just a little light QPF with sprinkles or flurries.

LOL, that's the extent of the excitement.

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There might be a weak coastal front Wednesday. Sometimes there is a band of "steadier" precip along that convergence line. It is possible that might spit out some snow or graupel if it comes down heavier over se mass. Otherwise it's just a little light QPF with sprinkles or flurries.

LOL, that's the extent of the excitement.

I will rofl of somehow Logan gets an inch out of something like that.

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