Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 HM likes the idea of a very cold January...so that's encouraging at least...I think he's the best around. January 1994! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve d- Stratospheric warming process has begun at 5 MB: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/05mb9065.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 January 1994! i'd take it...35" in BUF and the 7th coldest January on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 January 1994! That would be a treat... for now, the squirrel model is kaput... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That would be a treat... for now, the squirrel model is kaput... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve d- Stratospheric warming process has begun at 5 MB: http://www.cpc.ncep....re/05mb9065.gif Doesn't that usually imply cold weather within two weeks or something? i'd take it...35" in BUF and the 7th coldest January on record. Coldest january of 20th century in Ottawa, coldest January-February period since 1945 in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Worst 00z GFS run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Wow, the EURO is an unmitigated disaster NOAA point and click is above normal 5 of the next 7 days carrying about the same ratios as the last 45 days. Pattern change fail. Euro ensemble mean has a zonal flow at the end of the run while the op shows a big ridge in the east. Blah. Average daily temps are dropping each day and we're starting to see some movement in the stratsosphere. The change will come but when and to what extent is TBD. Based on all the numbers guys are putting out there it looks like early January is the target for the change and we should really rock for at least a few weeks, maybe two months. But all we're seeing now is a step down from incredible record warmth to just seasonal or slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Euro ensemble mean has a zonal flow at the end of the run while the op shows a big ridge in the east. If only it was only zonal. Ensembles agree with the op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Big ridge east of the Caspian there..... ] If you can deliver vodka source region air into NAMER, an apparent eastern ridge can still be suppressed south of us with frozen precip gradient flow events north of the boundary. If only it was only zonal. Ensembles agree with the op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It isn't that it isn't cold enough at times, it's just not an active storm threat pattern. Yes yes I know some areas got "buried" the other day but soon enough December will be running behind in snow while running well above temps. Jerry I think your Jan dates may be too pessimistic, but I'm not overly enthusiastic for the next two weeks. That isn't being a Debbie Downer or warmanista, it's just not living at the north pole while being deluded. There's a reason the post frequency has dropped off on many regional forums and here....because the vast majority see that this pattern blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Maybe something in the cards for the 18th-20th or so. Models have a trough hanging back over the sw with some possible wave(s) moving into the northeast during the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 No worries. LC in his newsletter is calling for motherlode of arctic cold to drop south right around Christmas and making comparisons to 76/77 and 83. Everyone can relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 If only it was only zonal. Ensembles agree with the op... I can hardly read a map and I have missed this conversation for the last couple day but when I look at that I see a big ridge bulding towards the pole (-AO), a vortex over Hudson Bay and a SE Ridge. There is low pressure in the SW. Wouldn't those lows be ejected into a pressing gradient giving us swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 No worries. LC in his newsletter is calling for motherlode of arctic cold to drop south right around Christmas and making comparisons to 76/77 and 83. Everyone can relax Just add 2-3 weeks to that and that'll be closer to the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 No worries. LC in his newsletter is calling for motherlode of arctic cold to drop south right around Christmas and making comparisons to 76/77 and 83. Everyone can relax I can't honestly believe some of the stuff being thrown around wrt arctic cold for Christmas. Maybe I'm wrong....but it makes me wonder if some people should have their degrees revoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I can't honestly believe some of the stuff being thrown around wrt arctic cold for Christmas. Maybe I'm wrong....but it makes me wonder if some people should have their degrees revoked. LOL..check out his newsletter from yesterday. Wes and a few others in the medium range thread on the main page do offer some promise around day 10 and beyond. First time I've seen Wes positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 maybe some light rain/snow showers for some of the area on wednesday? it's about all we got. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I can't honestly believe some of the stuff being thrown around wrt arctic cold for Christmas. Maybe I'm wrong....but it makes me wonder if some people should have their degrees revoked. LC knows his stuff. He says " not sure it will verify" So whats wrong with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 LOL..check out his newsletter from yesterday. Wes and a few others in the medium range thread on the main page do offer some promise around day 10 and beyond. First time I've seen Wes positive There will be some colder shots of air that come in here, but it still looks like the same old story. Our only hope is to some how try and cash in on any SWFE or wave that develops along the front to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 LC knows his stuff. He says " not sure it will verify" So whats wrong with that! So claiming a shot of arctic cold will invade the US and then also say not sure it will verify. A win/win!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 maybe some light rain/snow showers for some of the area on wednesday? it's about all we got. lol. Yeah maybe messenger will drive up and down Rt 6 looking for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I can't honestly believe some of the stuff being thrown around wrt arctic cold for Christmas. Maybe I'm wrong....but it makes me wonder if some people should have their degrees revoked. Crankypants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Not going to lie...pants are getting a little cranky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Well it appears that the 12/6-12 period did bring a coastal low and cold shot (ongoing). Looks like if you didn't have elevation on your side, the snow amounts on the 7th-8th are going in the book as traces. However, I am glad that this did get down into the Mid-Atlantic, even if it wasn't anything memorable. The models are now keying in on the 12/18-20 period for a Midwest cyclone and Arctic plunge. It is very phase 7 looking, per the MJO composites. The semi-permanent E PAC ridge feature will likely expand as wavelengths elongate toward winter. The PNA will likely be a viable contender through the holidays and the start of January with perhaps another cold shot / snow potential near New Years. The original forecast for a "decent New England snowstorm 12/20-23" still holds; although, I'd like to make a few adjustments. Baroclinic zone likely arrives 12/20-22, so the threat is more like 12/22-24. Also, it could manifest as another fast-moving coastal storm, possibly favoring the interior Mid-Atlantic and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Some of the big boys in LR forecasting are now offering some positive things as we head twds the last 10 days of the month. Maybe we can up our chances of a white Christmas from 10% to 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Some of the big boys in LR forecasting are now offering some positive things as we head twds the last 10 days of the month. Maybe we can up our chances of a white Christmas from 10% to 15% Opening up the gifts wearing shorts this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Opening up the gifts wearing shorts this year. That happens almost every Christmas anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Some of the big boys in LR forecasting are now offering some positive things as we head twds the last 10 days of the month. Maybe we can up our chances of a white Christmas from 10% to 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That happens almost every Christmas anyways. Well last Christmas was at least cold and then we had a nice gift on the 12z runs. At least we are getting deeper into winter so any cold shot will have a little more legs than the previous one. I just don't see a huge change yet for at least another 2 weeks. We'll have to hope we can cash in on these fleeting ridges in the GOA. Maybe in the last week of the month it gets more gradient like towards New England, but that is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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