weathafella Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Id take that Jerry, we only has about 6 weeks or so last year of excitement. Except last year had 3-4 times the amount of snow...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Except last year had 3-4 times the amount of snow...lol... 12z OP GFS looks nice toward Christmas..nice +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z OP GFS looks nice toward Christmas..nice +PNA It'll snow or storm around the 25th...flight insurance FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z OP GFS looks nice toward Christmas..nice +PNA Not a bad run, Wish we were inside 96 hrs though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I suppose if we have another fleeting -EPO ridge before Christmas....maybe we can get a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 GC better show up. I can't this go 'round. My daughter's 7th birthday party instead. A different kind of GTG. 31.5/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I can't this go 'round. My daughter's 7th birthday party instead. A different kind of GTG. 31.5/18 birthday party at Funky Murphy's FTW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 birthday party at Funky Murphy's FTW!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z euro is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z euro is awful. I guess that would mean status quo and the 18-23 period has now warmed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 All we've heard for weeks is gradient pattern.swfe..we've had NONE..Nothing looks different the next 2 weeks You need to take a break from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 You need to take a break from the board. The boards need to be shut down for a few days people getting crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 You need to take a break from the board. I think a lot of people need to take a break. A lot of people are starting to have meltdowns on the other forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z euro is awful. SE ridge is king on this run. Grr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 SE ridge is king on this run. Grr... you clown...i tried and tried and tried to get in touch with you to get you to come to the g2g today in worcester!!! but you ignored all my efforts!!! sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Not sure if this means much but I did a composite correlation of wetter than normal Augusts at BDL since 1950 to temperature the following met. winter. The first map indicates that following a wetter than normal August we typically see a slightly above normal temperature regime. The second map excludes 1976 since it obviously skews the mean and it shows quite a bit stronger correlation, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 You need to take a break from the board. This could fit with a lot of individuls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Pattern change begins 1/10 and is complete 1/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 This could fit with a lot of individuls... Myself included. The constant drumbeat of "this Winter sucks" is fatigueing. I'd rather totally tune out and be blissfully ignorant of our plight and be surprised and happy when the snow flies unexpectedly. Yep, going to just quit paying such close attention. A watched pot never boils..... See you for the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Its amazing how different they want to be. Take your pick. GFS or Euro. Euro has it warm. GFS has it cold for the East in long range. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off LARGE DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE AMOUNT OFCOLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT. WHILE THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TIMING...THEY VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR TO FOLLOW. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT DIFFERENCES NEXT SAT...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS HAS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS AND A STRONG COLD POOL DROPPING ACROSS THE NE. HEIGHTS VARY BY OVER 200 METERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Pattern change begins 1/10 and is complete 1/25 Stop. Your original call will verify pretty closely, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Its amazing how different they want to be. Take your pick. GFS or Euro. Euro has it warm. GFS has it cold for the East in long range. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off I can tell you the one model i would like to believe is correct , But more then likely its not the one that we all want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Wow, the EURO is an unmitigated disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Its amazing how different they want to be. Take your pick. GFS or Euro. Euro has it warm. GFS has it cold for the East in long range. Euro ensemble mean has a zonal flow at the end of the run while the op shows a big ridge in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I think I'm done with any models beyond about day 7.... wasting too much time on this long range pattern change patter and nobody really knows. I accept that we may never get into a long term great pattern this winter and we will probably have to "pick our spots" so to speak and score some snow events periodically when things turn temporarily favorable. And enjoy the nuances of winter wx events and not be focused on huge Nor'easters because they probably aren't happening with this La Nina. Now if the big pattern change should happen after all, then great...... Stop. Your original call will verify pretty closely, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I think I'm done with any models beyond about day 7.... wasting too much time on this long range pattern change patter and nobody really knows. I accept that we may never get into a long term great pattern this winter and we will probably have to "pick our spots" so to speak and score some snow events periodically when things turn temporarily favorable. And enjoy the nuances of winter wx events and not be focused on huge Nor'easters because they probably aren't happening with this La Nina. Now if the big pattern change should happen after all, then great...... I never get too high or too low over the LR stuff. Verification scores are low. A week to 10 days is about as far out as model clairvoyance goes. Things will improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 wouldn't know we're in a warm pattern from my home obs right now. Already down to 23 there...other stations surrounding are at 27 and up. Nice to live in a cold location, isn't it MRG? haha...too bad it's still like 30 at school. Oh well, a cold one tonight all around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I never get too high or too low over the LR stuff. Verification scores are low. A week to 10 days is about as far out as model clairvoyance goes. Things will improve. ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 wouldn't know we're in a warm pattern from my home obs right now. Already down to 23 there...other stations surrounding are at 27 and up. Nice to live in a cold location, isn't it MRG? haha...too bad it's still like 30 at school. Oh well, a cold one tonight all around! 21/12, cold is good. ditto Nice to have snow on the ground despite the warministas constant proclamations Winter is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 21/12, cold is good. Nice to have snow on the ground despite the warministas constant proclamations Winter is dead. It just begining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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