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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Not sure if this means much but I did a composite correlation of wetter than normal Augusts at BDL since 1950 to temperature the following met. winter. The first map indicates that following a wetter than normal August we typically see a slightly above normal temperature regime. The second map excludes 1976 since it obviously skews the mean and it shows quite a bit stronger correlation, FWIW.

post-532-0-57781100-1323549781.jpg

post-532-0-78136200-1323549792.jpg

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This could fit with a lot of individuls...

Myself included. The constant drumbeat of "this Winter sucks" is fatigueing. I'd rather totally tune out and be blissfully ignorant of our plight and be surprised and happy when the snow flies unexpectedly. Yep, going to just quit paying such close attention. A watched pot never boils.....

See you for the 00z suite.

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Its amazing how different they want to be. Take your pick. GFS or Euro. Euro has it warm. GFS has it cold for the East in long range.

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

LARGE DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE AMOUNT OF

COLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT. WHILE THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE

FRONTAL SYSTEM TIMING...THEY VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF

THE UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR TO FOLLOW. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT

HEIGHT DIFFERENCES NEXT SAT...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A RIDGE

BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS HAS MUCH LOWER

HEIGHTS AND A STRONG COLD POOL DROPPING ACROSS THE NE. HEIGHTS

VARY BY OVER 200 METERS.

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I think I'm done with any models beyond about day 7.... wasting too much time on this long range pattern change patter and nobody really knows.

I accept that we may never get into a long term great pattern this winter and we will probably have to "pick our spots" so to speak and score some snow events periodically when things turn temporarily favorable. And enjoy the nuances of winter wx events and not be focused on huge Nor'easters because they probably aren't happening with this La Nina.

Now if the big pattern change should happen after all, then great......

Stop. Your original call will verify pretty closely,

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I think I'm done with any models beyond about day 7.... wasting too much time on this long range pattern change patter and nobody really knows.

I accept that we may never get into a long term great pattern this winter and we will probably have to "pick our spots" so to speak and score some snow events periodically when things turn temporarily favorable. And enjoy the nuances of winter wx events and not be focused on huge Nor'easters because they probably aren't happening with this La Nina.

Now if the big pattern change should happen after all, then great......

I never get too high or too low over the LR stuff. Verification scores are low. A week to 10 days is about as far out as model clairvoyance goes. Things will improve.

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wouldn't know we're in a warm pattern from my home obs right now. Already down to 23 there...other stations surrounding are at 27 and up. Nice to live in a cold location, isn't it MRG? haha...too bad it's still like 30 at school. Oh well, a cold one tonight all around!

21/12, cold is good.

ditto

Nice to have snow on the ground despite the warministas constant proclamations Winter is dead.

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