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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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The squirrels have never let me down.

I'm beginning to wonder if the squirrels are so fat merely because of the positive anomaly of food being consistent with the postive anomaly in temp. smile.png

Nice near normal (that would be the NNN index) day out there today. Clouds, a couple flakes, out there sizing wood. Taking a break to run to Tractor Supply and to get the truck inspected (ftl).

As we have seen, we can still get wintry weather in the midst of above normal temps. The above normal departures will continue to become closer to the wintry threshold Fear not.

33.2/25

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I'm beginning to wonder if the squirrels are so fat merely because of the positive anomaly of food being consistent with the postive anomaly in temp. smile.png

Nice near normal (that would be the NNN index) day out there today. Clouds, a couple flakes, out there sizing wood. Taking a break to run to Tractor Supply and to get the truck inspected (ftl).

As we have seen, we can still get wintry weather in the midst of above normal temps. The above normal departures will continue to become closer to the wintry threshold Fear not.

33.2/25

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I'm beginning to wonder if the squirrels are so fat merely because of the positive anomaly of food being consistent with the postive anomaly in temp. smile.png

Nice near normal (that would be the NNN index) day out there today. Clouds, a couple flakes, out there sizing wood. Taking a break to run to Tractor Supply and to get the truck inspected (ftl).

As we have seen, we can still get wintry weather in the midst of above normal temps. The above normal departures will continue to become closer to the wintry threshold Fear not.

33.2/25

All wildlife is morbidly obese right now because they're hard wired to eat and eat before it gets cold. They've been eating since August.

Wildlife is really taking advantage of the weather. For the birders out there a great article this morning about the vast array of species not normally seen in these quantities around here. With the sea birds some of that is happening because the sand eels haven't left yet due to the warm water so there is plenty of food.

http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20111210/NEWS/112100322/-1/NEWS01

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I haven't really looked so things turned from being able to be perceived as neutral to bad again?

The 0z GFS out at the end looked like it's really wanting to build back the SE ridge which is something newer for it.

everything looks about the same...which isn't good obviously...I wouldn't say it looks worse though. I think there is decent support for a decent -EPO ridge around 7-8 days which could make things interesting...but again looks transient.

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everything looks about the same...which isn't good obviously...I wouldn't say it looks worse though. I think there is decent support for a decent -EPO ridge around 7-8 days which could make things interesting...but again looks transient.

Right I'd agree we have our little interlude period but I think there's increasing indications we go back into Decembers version of snow hell after that.

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I'm thinking in memory this start reminds me of 3 seasons' Decembrs:

1959-60

1998-99

1999-00

1959 was a dead ratter winter saved by a spectacular HECS in early March.

1998 was very warm and got coold right around 12/25 and then back and forth. We had our chances that year but overall it was sub par.

1999 may have been the best match to this year. BOS had not a trace of snow until 1/12. However, 1/12-2/20 brought a sustined bitter cold and snowy period. It then lifted out and winter was over. However, despite a lousy winter, we did have a furious stretch.

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HM likes the idea of a very cold January...so that's encouraging at least...I think he's the best around.

Figuring this started in November carries through to December I'd think it's likely we see the change underway 1/1, throw in a week or so for good measure and by MLK I think we're into good winter everywhere here.

I think that would put this one on the high end of established stink periods. Winter will come and I think we will see the more traditional snow bomb periods (first week of February etc) produce this year.

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Incidentally, the flip in late February was amazing. March od 1960 did not have a max of 40+ qt BOS until 3/18! And the month itself was similar in temps to many a February.

Worst case I think it gets delayed into mid or later January. In reality what's really the difference if we have a good month? That's all we've really gotten the last two years anyway.

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updated- 12-10-11

Scott

MeteoTrade?

Amy

Diane

Garth

Kevin

Ray

Phil

Ginxy

TB

Wizzy

hubbdave- 5pmish

OldmanBob- 5pmish

Max

Socks

Chris (nwct)

Will?

Typhoon Tip? 6pmish

IWC?

All right ladies and gents, kickoff in T-2.5hrs!

looks like i've got a maybe from our God's Country kinfolk- Mrg, and Happy Valley...let's hope they show! smile.png

Dec 10th, 2pm until whenever...Worcester, Funky Murphys

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Worst case I think it gets delayed into mid or later January. In reality what's really the difference if we have a good month? That's all we've really gotten the last two years anyway.

I just remember being in 7th grade and frustrated all winter. In the last few days of February, a strong fropa occurred and the progs were cold and I was thinking how wasted this cold would be......

Then snow strted showing up in the forecast. 3/4 was on a Friday and by 7am snow began with a temperature near 20. It was one of those snows with wisps blowing across the pavement and immediate accumulation with low water. Of course in those days no matter what the warnings we went to school unless a lot was alredy on the ground. By 9AM it was raging and of course my eyes woud not leave the window and fortunately it was so intense others were like that as well. We were dismissed at noon and snow continued for another 12 hours. One of the great blizzards of my life to date.

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I'm thinking in memory this start reminds me of 3 seasons' Decembrs:

1959-60

1998-99

1999-00

1959 was a dead ratter winter saved by a spectacular HECS in early March.

1998 was very warm and got coold right around 12/25 and then back and forth. We had our chances that year but overall it was sub par.

1999 may have been the best match to this year. BOS had not a trace of snow until 1/12. However, 1/12-2/20 brought a sustined bitter cold and snowy period. It then lifted out and winter was over. However, despite a lousy winter, we did have a furious stretch.

Id take that Jerry, we only has about 6 weeks or so last year of excitement.

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