Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Yo yo TIP FTW!! "You may have been wondering about the validity of the 79 mph wind report we listed from Point Judith, RI from 4 AM this morning in our PNS. Upon reviewing this further, we have concluded that it is, in fact, likely to be a real occurrence. (There were also reports of tree and wire damage at Westerly and Scituate and a 63 mph wind gust at Burrillville.) At first thought, you might think it was thunderstorm-related, but the thunderstorms were past there by then. Radar imagery showed a pronounced back edge to the rapidly deepening cyclone. There was a tremendous pressure rise-fall couplet associated with back side of the storm. Forecast model data showed that the 1.5 PV (potential vorticity) surface, which is the best PV surface to approximate the tropopause, was lowering to approximately 550 mb at that time...quite low. If you recall the December 9th event from several years ago, where there were 100+ mph winds gusts with thunderstorms and snow squalls along the south coast/Cape Cod/Islands...the tropopause surface had 'folded' down to as low as 700 mb in that event. In recent years, this feature has gained some notoriety and has been dubbed a 'sting jet' in the professional literature. There was an article in the November, 2010 edition of the Monthly Weather Review journal entitled "Sting Jets in Simulations of a Real Cyclone by Two Mesoscale Models." The original article is from 2004 by K.A. Browning, published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ("The Sting at the End of the Tail..."). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I was wondering about this last night. It really woul not have taken much to have made that into a pretty good event...maybe epic. The preceding air was just so foul and warm. That's why I think the pattern has changed, we have puked out the foul putrid SE air sent it to Scotland via 150 mph jet. At least now we are somewhat in a better antecedent position. Fook the SE ridge may it die down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Yo yo TIP FTW!! "You may have been wondering about the validity of the 79 mph wind report we listed from Point Judith, RI from 4 AM this morning in our PNS. Upon reviewing this further, we have concluded that it is, in fact, likely to be a real occurrence. (There were also reports of tree and wire damage at Westerly and Scituate and a 63 mph wind gust at Burrillville.) At first thought, you might think it was thunderstorm-related, but the thunderstorms were past there by then. Radar imagery showed a pronounced back edge to the rapidly deepening cyclone. There was a tremendous pressure rise-fall couplet associated with back side of the storm. Forecast model data showed that the 1.5 PV (potential vorticity) surface, which is the best PV surface to approximate the tropopause, was lowering to approximately 550 mb at that time...quite low. If you recall the December 9th event from several years ago, where there were 100+ mph winds gusts with thunderstorms and snow squalls along the south coast/Cape Cod/Islands...the tropopause surface had 'folded' down to as low as 700 mb in that event. In recent years, this feature has gained some notoriety and has been dubbed a 'sting jet' in the professional literature. There was an article in the November, 2010 edition of the Monthly Weather Review journal entitled "Sting Jets in Simulations of a Real Cyclone by Two Mesoscale Models." The original article is from 2004 by K.A. Browning, published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ("The Sting at the End of the Tail..."). NICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Yo yo TIP FTW!! "You may have been wondering about the validity of the 79 mph wind report we listed from Point Judith, RI from 4 AM this morning in our PNS. Upon reviewing this further, we have concluded that it is, in fact, likely to be a real occurrence. (There were also reports of tree and wire damage at Westerly and Scituate and a 63 mph wind gust at Burrillville.) At first thought, you might think it was thunderstorm-related, but the thunderstorms were past there by then. Radar imagery showed a pronounced back edge to the rapidly deepening cyclone. There was a tremendous pressure rise-fall couplet associated with back side of the storm. Forecast model data showed that the 1.5 PV (potential vorticity) surface, which is the best PV surface to approximate the tropopause, was lowering to approximately 550 mb at that time...quite low. If you recall the December 9th event from several years ago, where there were 100+ mph winds gusts with thunderstorms and snow squalls along the south coast/Cape Cod/Islands...the tropopause surface had 'folded' down to as low as 700 mb in that event. In recent years, this feature has gained some notoriety and has been dubbed a 'sting jet' in the professional literature. There was an article in the November, 2010 edition of the Monthly Weather Review journal entitled "Sting Jets in Simulations of a Real Cyclone by Two Mesoscale Models." The original article is from 2004 by K.A. Browning, published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ("The Sting at the End of the Tail..."). Matty N channeled Tippy k*** ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Lol Yeah hard to believe climo at BDL is now 24/40. We've been nowhere near that. ....in years it sometimes seems LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 What - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Matty N channeled Tippy k*** ftl How about posting that in Kush's attack thread instead of letting Ginxxx and I defend Tip by ourselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You know its a bad pattern when you have to go trolling in OT and come back full of bullet holes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 How about posting that in Kush's attack thread instead of letting Ginxxx and I defend Tip by ourselves? I did before you lolz Edit after you sorta did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I did before you lolz Edit after you sorta did Eh, I don't know what is the origin of that person's animosity toward me, but it is unrelenting... He pm-ed me a few times, going out of his way to outline why I am douche bag during the tropical season, to which I didn't have a response because let's face it - there is nothing you can say to persons of that ilk that will penetrate their minds. Here we are months later since his rant, and I have had 0 correspondence with him/her in forum or pm, and he/she is still at it. That person claims I don't know anything and that I am clueless. Clearly that is the truth! The problem is, you can't defend yourself by pointing out your successes, lest you are branded douche bag self-promoter; yet that is the only way to defend against that sort of attack? Catch-22. I guess at the end of the day I know that person's opinions mean far less than mine in the grand scheme of things. Einstein once famously stated, "Great spirits always encounter violent opposition from mediocre minds". While I don't claim to be a great spirit, the spirit of what that quote is intended to convey certainly applies. Dec 2005, the collapse of the AO in late Jan 2006, Feb 2006, June (heat) 2008 just to name a few, and a multitude of scenarios just like this last one are among hefty resume builders and pretty much owned by yours truly. Much of which all played out before that person was on the board, and during Eastern's better days. Frankly, this American forum would be a far better organization/resource to all if that person was excommunicated from its use altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Eh, I don't know what is the origin of that person's animosity toward me, but it is unrelenting... He pm-ed me a few times, going out of his way to outline why I am douche bag during the tropical season, to which I didn't have a response because let's face it - there is nothing you can say to persons of that ilk that will penetrate their minds. Here we are months later since his rant, and I have had 0 correspondence with him/her in forum or pm, and he/she is still at it. That person claims I don't know anything and that I am clueless. Clearly that is the truth! The problem is, you can't defend yourself by pointing out your successes, lest you are branded douche bag self-promoter; yet that is the only way to defend against that sort of attack? Catch-22. I guess at the end of the day I know that person's opinions mean far less than mine in the grand scheme of things. Einstein once famously stated, "Great spirits always encounter violent opposition from mediocre minds". While I don't claim to be a great spirit, the spirit of what that quote is intended to convey certainly applies. Dec 2005, the collapse of the AO in late Jan 2006, Feb 2006, June (heat) 2008 just to name a few, and a multitude of scenarios just like this last one are among hefty resume builders and pretty much owned by yours truly. Much of which all played out before that person was on the board, and during Eastern's better days. Frankly, this American forum would be a far better organization/resource to all if that person was excommunicated from its use altogether. Congrats on the call Tip, meh on the troll. Life is too short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Congrats on the call Tip, meh on the troll. Life is too short. Thx! that said it will be interesting in postmortem if the sting jet's verified. Isallobaric wind pulse may also explain the wind, too, and that type of phenomenon may not contain a stinger. I did mention both possibilities, however, and Scott would certainly confirm as he and I had an discussion about all that leading this last event. I don't really want to get into it further, but this business about only saying what could happen, but not forecasting is a bunch of bullshyte. All forecast are what "could" happen. The former nonesense is just indefensibly stupid on a so many levels and exposes that persons pure yet baseless animosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 00z Euro ontinues theme of being warmer than 12z .Been happening the last 4 cycles. Our late week swfe looks ok,,still alot to iron out if it cuts NW or is crushed by the confluence. Day 10 Euro has most of western and central Canada torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Ensembles say what torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Ensembles say what torch? d11-15 isn't as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 d11-15 isn't as good. Is it horrid or just less cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I see the "grinch storm" is showing up on the goofus. I guess if there is no snow on the ground it won't sting as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Is it horrid or just less cold? Same difference if it's not snowing, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 d11-15 isn't as good. Yeah they aren't the best. They flattened the ridge a bit out in the GOA, which is why I wanted to make sure it carried it over the next several runs. It did change the orientation a bit of the big vortex and try to chill off Canada...especially western Canada, but the se ridge continues. I also think that "cold shot" could eventually look pretty average as we get closer.Hopefully it's more like the euro op, but this has been the trend so far...why go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Much fewer lights this year vs average. Warm weather has effected the holiday spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Yeah they aren't the best. They flattened the ridge a bit out in the GOA, which is why I wanted to make sure it carried it over the next several runs. It did change the orientation a bit of the bog vortex and try to chill off Canada...especially western Canada, but the se ridge continues. I also think that "cold shot" could eventually look pretty average as we get closer.Hopefully it's more like the euro op, but this has been the trend so far...why go against it. You've been working hard and have a very good read on the pattern and have since mid autumn. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You've been working hard and have a very good read on the pattern and have since mid autumn. What do you think? Well the period near the 18th or 19th might offer something I suppose since it gets colder, but again it is just a "chance" and I say that without seeing anything concrete. It looks like it will be one of those positively tilted troughs that come se in a sw-ne orientation, and then bounce out of here as if it hit a trampoline. After that...maybe some sort of warm up and then western Canada really gets cold it seems. Sometimes when that happens..we can get glancing shots of arctic air and our SWFE, so we'll have to hope for that. The se ridge doesn't seem like it will go anywhere for now, and when that happens...we know what the risk can be. The models still at times want to try and amp the ridge up in the NPAC, but we need a more stout ridge. I did like how the PV tried to settle south a little into nrn Hudson Bay. It could act to try and shove colder air south later in the 11-15 day, but overall...I don't see any significant changes. Hopefully we can sneak something in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Well the period near the 18th or 19th might offer something I suppose since it gets colder, but again it is just a "chance" and I say that without seeing anything concrete. It looks like it will be one of those positively tilted troughs that come se in a sw-ne orientation, and then bounce out of here as if it hit a trampoline. After that...maybe some sort of warm up and then western Canada really gets cold it seems. Sometimes when that happens..we can get glancing shots of arctic air and our SWFE, so we'll have to hope for that. The se ridge doesn't seem like it will go anywhere for now, and when that happens...we know what the risk can be. The models still at times want to try and amp the ridge up in the NPAC, but we need a more stout ridge. I did like how the PV tried to settle south a little into nrn Hudson Bay. It could act to try and shove colder air south later in the 11-15 day, but overall...I don't see any significant changes. Hopefully we can sneak something in here. Thanks Scott. Your work here is much appreciated as others have said as well. It sounds like we have some chances but things have to break just right particularly in the long range with the southern placement of the pv ala 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Well the period near the 18th or 19th might offer something I suppose since it gets colder, but again it is just a "chance" and I say that without seeing anything concrete. It looks like it will be one of those positively tilted troughs that come se in a sw-ne orientation, and then bounce out of here as if it hit a trampoline. After that...maybe some sort of warm up and then western Canada really gets cold it seems. Sometimes when that happens..we can get glancing shots of arctic air and our SWFE, so we'll have to hope for that. The se ridge doesn't seem like it will go anywhere for now, and when that happens...we know what the risk can be. The models still at times want to try and amp the ridge up in the NPAC, but we need a more stout ridge. I did like how the PV tried to settle south a little into nrn Hudson Bay. It could act to try and shove colder air south later in the 11-15 day, but overall...I don't see any significant changes. Hopefully we can sneak something in here. What happened to the event late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Much fewer lights this year vs average. Warm weather has effected the holiday spirit. Jerry..hate to say it but this looks like a mild winter..I know when I see a clunker,been around too long.So I'm in a take what you can get mode and not expecting much..maybe we can get a few good weeks..my expectations are low..and really can't complain..we have had quite a decade of great winters..we were due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Jerry..hate to say it but this looks like a mild winter..I know when I see a clunker,been around too long.So I'm in a take what you can get mode and not expecting much..maybe we can get a few good weeks..my expectations are low..and really can't complain..we have had quite a decade of great winters..we were due SNE's totally different than us in a Nina winter Keith, you should know this by now. We could very easily go 07-08 ridiculous gradient pattern where NYC gets ice or rain and Boston gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 What happened to the event late next week? What "event"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Jerry..hate to say it but this looks like a mild winter..I know when I see a clunker,been around too long.So I'm in a take what you can get mode and not expecting much..maybe we can get a few good weeks..my expectations are low..and really can't complain..we have had quite a decade of great winters..we were due It's hard to argue with this reasoning. The only thing however that keeps sticking in me is the corpulence of the squirrels...they are enormous and eating like crazy. Maybe they think we're in Winnipeg? So that signal is not going away and speaks to a flip to furious cold and snow sometime. But yes...statistically we're a long shot for a decent winter at this point. I'm going to hold out until mid January before pulling the plug and enjoy the weather....it's the only weather I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's hard to argue with this reasoning. The only thing however that keeps sticking in me is the corpulence of the squirrels...they are enormous and eating like crazy. Maybe they think we're in Winnipeg? So that signal is not going away and speaks to a flip to furious cold and snow sometime. But yes...statistically we're a long shot for a decent winter at this point. I'm going to hold out until mid January before pulling the plug and enjoy the weather....it's the only weather I get. Jerry they are huge. They have ballz too. Maybe they are just street tough city squirrels, but I walked up to one yesterday and he just stood up and looked at me....as if to say "What!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's hard to argue with this reasoning. The only thing however that keeps sticking in me is the corpulence of the squirrels...they are enormous and eating like crazy. Maybe they think we're in Winnipeg? So that signal is not going away and speaks to a flip to furious cold and snow sometime. But yes...statistically we're a long shot for a decent winter at this point. I'm going to hold out until mid January before pulling the plug and enjoy the weather....it's the only weather I get. maybe we can squeeze a snowfall in around Christmas..even the mildest winters and Decembers have had a snow event around the 25th..74,84,90,98,ect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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