Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Me too this 00Z Op run Verbatim.. if that. Plenty of chances on the 0z GFS. Looks like some nice post frontal snows at 320+ I'm just happy to see a definitive downturn in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Every run has a different solution, Models are struggling hard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Every run has a different solution, Models are struggling hard.. I'm not sure they're struggling all that much. I think people are having a hard time with the fact they aren't showing any big winter storms. We're just seeing the normal noise. Definitive trend towards more seasonable but that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Plenty of chances on the 0z GFS. Looks like some nice post frontal snows at 320+ I'm just happy to see a definitive downturn in temps. Agree.. after the day 5 wave.. Temps. get a lot colder. I'm hoping the NAO moves downward too. Also, that the PAC NW ridge holds/ re-builds in that period too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Agree.. after the day 5 wave.. Temps. get a lot colder. I'm hoping the NAO moves downward too. Also, that the PAC NW ridge holds/ re-builds in that period too.. It's still questionalbe as to what pattern we have 12/20ish...still could torch again. I dont think we'll see consistency in the modeling until after this trough moves through in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm not sure they're struggling all that much. I think people are having a hard time with the fact they aren't showing any big winter storms. We're just seeing the normal noise. Definitive trend towards more seasonable but that's to be expected. Probably should of clarified, Next weeks storm is issue with the models being all over the board, Not the pattern overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Probably should of clarified, Next weeks storm is issue with the models being all over the board, Not the pattern overall Is what it is. Bluewave and Don posted some great stuff in the main thread. I'm hoping we get something here in the next few weeks but we've got to remember it's been like looking in the rear view mirror "cold outbreaks may appear larger than they are." I'll be happy with 2 cold snowy periods this winter if they last 5-10 days each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 1995-96 kicked off with a swfe. Keep hope alive 6 days left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 And "WHOOOOOSH" go any threats this week. At least we have some reasonable temperatures on tap for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 . And "WHOOOOOSH" go any threats this week. At least we have some reasonable temperatures on tap for a few days. Likely to change again with the next suite. HOWEVER...THE 00Z UKMET AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE TRACK MUCH FURTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 And "WHOOOOOSH" go any threats this week. At least we have some reasonable temperatures on tap for a few days. This is definitely shaping up to be one of those cold and dry, or warm and wet type of Decembers. Hopefully it doesn't last all winter but the chances of getting decent precip in a cold dome looks very slim right now. We will have to nickel and dime any flurries or snow showers we can get with any weak vort maxes passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 i have a winter storm to track in DC....see you in a few days my new friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This is definitely shaping up to be one of those cold and dry, or warm and wet type of Decembers. Hopefully it doesn't last all winter but the chances of getting decent precip in a cold dome looks very slim right now. We will have to nickel and dime any flurries or snow showers we can get with any weak vort maxes passing through. I'll take the cold and dry over the warm and wet. At least help freeze some of the ponds and lakes.and to make it feel a little nipply out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxGkcC1VrhU How do we attach videos now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm just happy to see areas of low pressure sliding to the south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yeah it is nice to see storms go out underneath us instead of west of us. At least we know the pattern is slowly trending cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm just happy to see areas of low pressure sliding to the south of New England. Yup. Jerry's timeline is going to work out well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 let's hope these next few days are the last time we see consecutive big double digit departures for a while. i feel like we may have to enjoy what's coming temp-wise wed-sun...but we'll see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I have a question. I am typing something up but I want to make sure what I am going to say is correct before I do so b/c there's probably a good chance it will be wrong. On the following images below is one reason we really haven't seen this Nina intensify further and remain rather steady strength wise with only minor strengthening occurring b/c there are still more westerly trade winds right there on the coast of Central/South America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 one good thing to see this week is the northern stream (hopefully) having the ability to flatten the top of the SE ridge enough to allow things to cool off wednesday instead of friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 let's hope these next few days are the last time we see consecutive big double digit departures for a while. i feel like we may have to enjoy what's coming temp-wise wed-sun...but we'll see i guess. Yeah...the op EC gets pretty warm again by d10 and the EC ens bring neg hgt departures again to AK and Greenland d10-15. Like you said, it'd be nice to keep the warmups to +5 to +10 instead of the > +10s for multiple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I wonder if it's time to give up on the idea of that last piece of southern stream energy generating an event Thur/Fri ...or could it still be a player? I could see that going a couple ways. It might just get squished out by the digging polar stream trough or it could yet phase with that and in such a case there would even be the threat of a cutter on the table. With no upstream blocking it's always gonna be volatile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I wonder if it's time to give up on the idea of that last piece of southern stream energy generating an event Thur/Fri ...or could it still be a player? I could see that going a couple ways. It might just get squished out by the digging polar stream trough or it could yet phase with that and in such a case there would even be the threat of a cutter on the table. With no upstream blocking it's always gonna be volatile.... Silence is deafening. If you read the data from Don, Wes and Bluewave from a numbers point we don't have much real hope until January sometime. The AO is cranking at historic levels again. We get a lull in the warmer condition and then it probably returns for one last horrible stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I wonder if it's time to give up on the idea of that last piece of southern stream energy generating an event Thur/Fri ...or could it still be a player? I could see that going a couple ways. It might just get squished out by the digging polar stream trough or it could yet phase with that and in such a case there would even be the threat of a cutter on the table. With no upstream blocking it's always gonna be volatile.... I think a cutter is off the table. The southern s/w gets severely dampened in the longwave flow and there's really no room for amplification. I wonder if we'll see some sfc inverted troughiness -SN's develop in downeast ME if the longwave trough moves in quick enough to keep a trough hanging back. I think a SNE scrape is still in the cards though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Silence is deafening. If you read the data from Don, Wes and Bluewave from a numbers point we don't have much real hope until January sometime. The AO is cranking at historic levels again. We get a lull in the warmer condition and then it probably returns for one last horrible stay. Silence is deafening? Not much worth discussing that hasn't been rehashed a million times already. It feels like a cold snap coming back to equal chances.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm not entirely discouraged by that outlook because it seems to be hinting at a gradient pattern and the >normal anomaly isn't that pronounced at all in the Northeast. Also being inland here our normals are coming down nicely in the middle December period. But anyway my modis operandi is more to look for any snow chances inside the realistic 5 or 7 day window ...hence my thoughts above. I'll worry about this week for now and enjoy the colder air (albeit maybe cold/dry). LES is also a bit of a diversion here so not quite at desert-like as on the coastal plain. Silence is deafening. If you read the data from Don, Wes and Bluewave from a numbers point we don't have much real hope until January sometime. The AO is cranking at historic levels again. We get a lull in the warmer condition and then it probably returns for one last horrible stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm not entirely discouraged by that outlook because it seems to be hinting at a gradient pattern and the >normal anomaly isn't that pronounced at all in the Northeast. Also being inland here our normals are coming down nicely in the middle December period. But anyway my modis operandi is more to look for any snow chances inside the realistic 5 or 7 day window ...hence my thoughts above. I'll worry about this week for now and enjoy the colder air (albeit maybe cold/dry). LES is also a bit of a diversion here so not quite at desert-like as on the coastal plain. The other thread has been very interesting. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30594-ao-winter-analogs-when-december-reaches-35/ It will be interesting to compare general analogs vs extreme analogs and how well they performed come April. My guess is extreme will play a big roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm not entirely discouraged by that outlook because it seems to be hinting at a gradient pattern and the >normal anomaly isn't that pronounced at all in the Northeast. Also being inland here our normals are coming down nicely in the middle December period. But anyway my modis operandi is more to look for any snow chances inside the realistic 5 or 7 day window ...hence my thoughts above. I'll worry about this week for now and enjoy the colder air (albeit maybe cold/dry). LES is also a bit of a diversion here so not quite at desert-like as on the coastal plain. Silence is here because nothing has changed....lol. EC ensembles are a little better in the 11-15 day, but still nothing exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The other thread has been very interesting. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30594-ao-winter-analogs-when-december-reaches-35/ It will be interesting to compare general analogs vs extreme analogs and how well they performed come April. My guess is extreme will play a big roll. I'm so perplexed. Every sign points to q winter like I originally forecasted. Yet the squirrels are as fat as I've ever seen them and that has never failed to be a huge snow signal. I'm wondering if we end up with big snow but above normal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The other thread has been very interesting. http://www.americanw...ber-reaches-35/ It will be interesting to compare general analogs vs extreme analogs and how well they performed come April. My guess is extreme will play a big roll. I made a post about a week ago, that some of the big AO regimes eventually flipped negative like 4-6 weeks after they peaked. I think we have to be careful of some of those years because ENSO might be different, but a co-worker of mine was looking back at these big AO regimes in November/December and then rolling forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm so perplexed. Every sign points to q winter like I originally forecasted. Yet the squirrels are as fat as I've ever seen them and that has never failed to be a huge snow signal. I'm wondering if we end up with big snow but above normal temps? I feel like we may finally see a semblance to a second half winter. I could be wrong, but there are a few signs that it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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