CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Well it just snowed in a week that was anywheres from +6to+13 region wide, so anything can happen and the euro weeklies BLOW. Yes I know.....I'm just saying what they show. The overall theme is that it wasn't a very wintry pattern...but of course they could be wrong...I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Not sure he is humping it....just laying out a plausibilty based off of it. That's probably our next realistic time frame of any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Great read today folks. Thanks My snow survived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The se ridge builds through weeks 3 and 4. 850 temps anomaly are +1 week 3 (not bad) to +3 at week 4 (bad). The one thing that is semi ok, is the ridge in the NPAC which may have some amplification, but the se ridge is on HGH on the weeklies. Hope they are wrong. May I ask what they show for my region, in Southern ONT..just north of u, in terms of temps and precip. I had all the models before but I stopped subscribing lol. And I'm sure they show no blocking and weaken the AK vortex? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The reason lakes flash freeze like that too can be attributed to the fact that in order for a body of water to freeze, the whole volume has to cool to 4*C. Even if it's -20 out, the lake will not freeze quickly because the whole thing needs to reach that critical temp. Once those temps mix in, the top layer freezes and it works down from there. Maybe it was sitting on that threshold and finally broke allowing freezing to take place. yes i'm aware. it's still fascinating to see such a large body of water such as James Bay just lock up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yes I know.....I'm just saying what they show. The overall theme is that it wasn't a very wintry pattern...but of course they could be wrong...I know. And remember we just had a blizzard with really warm departures. Heavy heavy disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 May I ask what they show for my region, in Southern ONT..just north of u, in terms of temps and precip. I had all the models before but I stopped subscribing lol. And I'm sure they show no blocking and weaken the AK vortex? Thanks! They show the same in terms of temp anomalies for your area. I can't see precip anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 They show the same in terms of temp anomalies for your area. I can't see precip anomalies. Wow how sad....starting to look like 2001 and 2007 again and I mean 2006-07 lol. Perhaps we can squeeze in a few storms given the Active Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet at times though with the QBO finally starting to descend across 50mb maybe we can nudge in a bit of stratospheric warming later on in the season but the AK vortex is still holding its own. Trade Winds are continuing strong across the Pacific and this combined with the MJO wave is really keeping the Arctic away from the East haha. Lets see but I do think we'll see some progression of decent cold anomalies come early-Mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow how sad....starting to look like 2001 and 2007 again and I mean 2006-07 lol. Perhaps we can squeeze in a few storms given the Active Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet at times though with the QBO finally starting to descend across 50mb maybe we can nudge in a bit of stratospheric warming later on in the season but the AK vortex is still holding its own. Trade Winds are continuing strong across the Pacific and this combined with the MJO wave is really keeping the Arctic away from the East haha. Lets see but I do think we'll see some progression of decent cold anomalies come early-Mid Jan. Nah, things can turn around fast. If the 12z Euro mean pans out that whole mid month warming is big trouble. The MJO has no culpability on the AO, btw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I dont think the EURO and GFS latest is all bad... ridge out on the west coast seems to want to hang around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow how sad....starting to look like 2001 and 2007 again and I mean 2006-07 lol. Perhaps we can squeeze in a few storms given the Active Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet at times though with the QBO finally starting to descend across 50mb maybe we can nudge in a bit of stratospheric warming later on in the season but the AK vortex is still holding its own. Trade Winds are continuing strong across the Pacific and this combined with the MJO wave is really keeping the Arctic away from the East haha. Lets see but I do think we'll see some progression of decent cold anomalies come early-Mid Jan. Well I don't want them to sound any more valid then they should be. It's week 4 and prone to errors so they are not gospel. They have done ok with the overall pattern, but hopefully the ridging ends up better than shown. That would help the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Nah, things can turn around fast. If the 12z Euro mean pans out that whole mid month warming is big trouble. The MJO has no culpability on the AO, btw - If the PV splits then things could get interesting but the PV remains locked across Northern Canada, lol. A -EPO would certainly help but I dont see any sustained cold anomalies, at least not thru the next 1-2 weeks across the East. Well I don't want them to sound any more valid then they should be. It's week 4 and prone to errors so they are not gospel. They have done ok with the overall pattern, but hopefully the ridging ends up better than shown. That would help the northeast. Still lots of time to change things. Though it would be nice to get the MJO into Phases 78/1 and improve the Pacific to better establish a Aleutian Ridge and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 A 7 day stretch upcoming with 1 slightly below normal day. Torch continues. Euro weeklies now show a building torch with possibly record warmth after new years. Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 A 7 day stretch upcoming with 1 slightly below normal day. Torch continues. Euro weeklies now show a building torch with possibly record warmth after new years. Disaster. Man, sometimes you're just diabolical. T minus 10 minutes until Kevin takes the bait. (p.s. I am more in your camp but the next week still looks at least brisker than what it has been... lol, "brisk" is our consolation prize... sure beats 60 F with high dews and sweating through one's sheets in Dec.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The bottom line with the EC ensembles, is that we need to make sure it's not a phantom run showing this ridging. I'd like to see 3-4 runs showing this and not having it pushed back. Until then, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I have to say based on the pattern and the Euro ensembles it really does finally appear we are turning the corner to a colder more wintry pattern. Today is the first day you can actually look at things and feel fairly content. The key is going to be keeping the EPO negative..We've had some bitter periods thru the yrs with -EPO and +NAO..Storm track may be suppressed, but we'll take our chances with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I have to say based on the pattern and the Euro ensembles it really does finally appear we are turning the corner to a colder more wintry pattern. Today is the first day you can actually look at things and feel fairly content. The key is going to be keeping the EPO negative..We've had some bitter periods thru the yrs with -EPO and +NAO..Storm track may be suppressed, but we'll take our chances with that The euro ens may show a bit of relief by day 12 but I'm not too excited. Still looks hideous beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I'm shocked that there is no talk about this system. A signal has been showing up on the GGEM,GFS,Euro ensembles and now the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Man, sometimes you're just diabolical. T minus 10 minutes until Kevin takes the bait. (p.s. I am more in your camp but the next week still looks at least brisker than what it has been... lol, "brisk" is our consolation prize... sure beats 60 F with high dews and sweating through one's sheets in Dec.) Lol Yeah hard to believe climo at BDL is now 24/40. We've been nowhere near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'm shocked that there is no talk about this system. A signal has been showing up on the GGEM,GFS,Euro ensembles and now the GFS ensembles. There has been some discussion of it. I brought it up around noon today. There's not much to discuss except that its there but it could travel over bos or over mineapolis or be nothing at all. If things break right it could be a decent swfe for someone. Odds are slim though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'm shocked that there is no talk about this system. A signal has been showing up on the GGEM,GFS,Euro ensembles and now the GFS ensembles. Seriously? Were in a DUMP pattern and were going begin discussions on a storm 240 hours who's current odds are about <1% of actually occurring. Not the place you want to come to If you want mythical, fantasy, wishcasting discussion..... Here's a good place to check out... http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi Channeling my inner Ryan.... haha ETauntonMA... you're thinking of the system at day 7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 There has been some discussion of it. I brought it up around noon today. There's not much to discuss except that its there but it could travel over bos or over mineapolis or be nothing at all. If things break right it could be a decent swfe for someone. Odds are slim though. Maybe I'm thinking of a different system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 SOS, Pawcatuck River RI overflowed its banks at French Village in Hopkinton. Flood warning, wow where was this in 10? My stream the Snake Meadow River in Moosup overflowed onto North Sterling Road. I drove through it up to my axles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 633 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011 RIC009-090530- /O.NEW.KBOX.FA.W.0026.111208T2333Z-111209T0530Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WASHINGTON RI- 633 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND... * UNTIL 1230 AM EST * AT 629 PM EST...THE PAWCATUCK RIVER AT WESTERLY WAS REPORTING A VALUE OF 7.53...ROUGHLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUING TO RISE. * REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF URBAN AREAS BECOMING INUNDATED WITH WATER AROUND THE PAWCATUCK RIVER. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED FROM MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER INCLUDE LOW LYING HOMES IN FRENCH VILLAGE OFF OF ROUTE 3 IN HOPKINTON. FLOODWATERS ALSO APPROACH THE LOWEST LYING HOMES ALONG HISCOX ROAD IN WESTERLY. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. && LAT...LON 4131 7187 4132 7187 4132 7185 4134 7183 4142 7185 4142 7180 4146 7180 4149 7161 4145 7160 4135 7163 4132 7175 4132 7177 4130 7185 $$ SIPPRELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 but the se ridge is on HGH on the weeklies. Hope they are wrong. Makes sense given the expected ripping easterlies west of the dateline for the next 10 days... that should teleconnect to a stronger SE ridge in general through at least D18. With no MJO help, not sure what stops them, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Makes sense given the expected ripping easterlies west of the dateline for the next 10 days... that should teleconnect to a stronger SE ridge in general through at least D18. With no MJO help, not sure what stops them, either. Sounds like a decent pattern for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Sounds like a decent pattern for New England. It's all about the EPO. 70/71 Style, all the SE Ridge does is round out and allow for a nuke conditions like we saw yesterday. What we need is for Ecanada to stay frigid, lots of snow cover in Quebec. Euro ENS show this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 SOS, Pawcatuck River RI overflowed its banks at French Village in Hopkinton. Flood warning, wow where was this in 10? My stream the Snake Meadow River in Moosup overflowed onto North Sterling Road. I drove through it up to my axles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Who cares.. they have been awful Have they? Or have they been pretty spot on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's all about the EPO. 70/71 Style, all the SE Ridge does is round out and allow for a nuke conditions like we saw yesterday. What we need is for Ecanada to stay frigid, lots of snow cover in Quebec. Euro ENS show this well. I was wondering about this last night. It really woul not have taken much to have made that into a pretty good event...maybe epic. The preceding air was just so foul and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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