Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The reason lakes flash freeze like that too can be attributed to the fact that in order for a body of water to freeze, the whole volume has to cool to 4*C. Even if it's -20 out, the lake will not freeze quickly because the whole thing needs to reach that critical temp. Once those temps mix in, the top layer freezes and it works down from there. Maybe it was sitting on that threshold and finally broke allowing freezing to take place. The magic 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 EC ensembles sort of look like the op. Roll over ridge into nw Canada. SW US trough. Split flow big time with a trough in the northeast at d10. Pretty far out in time though. So Euro and its ensembles are better. It's 2 days prior to 12/10. What does d11-15 look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Happy birthday Professional Lurker Mike! many more runs to you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Euro ensembles...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 So Euro and its ensembles are better. It's 2 days prior to 12/10. What does d11-15 look like? Badly bust eh? Premature ecancellation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Badly bust eh? Premature ecancellation. 12/10-25.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Euro ensembles...... Happy Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Happy birthday Professional Lurker Mike! many more runs to you!!! Oh yay, someone else turning 21!!! Happy Birthday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 12/10-25.... I hope we get a foot on 12/27 while I'm scanning menus online... I'll have one of each thanks.. and a cabernet from the Reagan years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I hope we get a foot on 12/27 while I'm scanning menus online... I'll have one of each thanks.. and a cabernet from the Reagan years. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow, big change in the euro ensembles. They really try to pump up the EPO ridge in the 13-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I hope we get a foot on 12/27 while I'm scanning menus online... I'll have one of each thanks.. and a cabernet from the Reagan years. yum silver oak 85 cab for me thanks..........drank the last few bottles I had last winter:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow, big change in the euro ensembles. They really try to pump up the EPO ridge in the 13-15 day. Perhaps I have the good ju ju right now. Ens looked pretty darn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Changes in SSTA in the GOA. Here's 2 weeks ago: Here's 1 week ago....slight changes but still deep cold SSTA.. And here's today....getting better and better... Next week will be better still....perhaps our darkest days in the pattern are behind us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow, big change in the euro ensembles. They really try to pump up the EPO ridge in the 13-15 day. I remember they did this a couple of weeks ago, so we must wait and see if they continue this over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 My God...the weeklies are horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I remember they did this a couple of weeks ago, so we must wait and see if they continue this over the next few days. Maybe 2 weeks ago they were jumping the gun as models are want to do...hopefully this one is real... It appears to be a growing signal from the reports of the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 My God...the weeklies are horrible. Give us weeks 3 and 4 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 My God...the weeklies are horrible. Who cares.. they have been awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Give us weeks 3 and 4 please. The se ridge builds through weeks 3 and 4. 850 temps anomaly are +1 week 3 (not bad) to +3 at week 4 (bad). The one thing that is semi ok, is the ridge in the NPAC which may have some amplification, but the se ridge is on HGH on the weeklies. Hope they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The se ridge builds through weeks 3 and 4. 850 temps anomaly are +1 week 3 (not bad) to +3 at week 4 (bad). The one thing that is semi ok, is the ridge in the NPAC which may have some amplification, but the se ridge is on HGH on the weeklies. Hope they are wrong. Well they won't entirely be right. Let's hope the NPAC ridge is bigger and the SE ridge is smaller. It sounds like it wants to build a negative EPO which can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The se ridge builds through weeks 3 and 4. 850 temps anomaly are +1 week 3 (not bad) to +3 at week 4 (bad). The one thing that is semi ok, is the ridge in the NPAC which may have some amplification, but the se ridge is on HGH on the weeklies. Hope they are wrong. This is, though, we are getting to the point in the calendar year where it can snow in SNE with +1 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The se ridge builds through weeks 3 and 4. 850 temps anomaly are +1 week 3 (not bad) to +3 at week 4 (bad). The one thing that is semi ok, is the ridge in the NPAC which may have some amplification, but the se ridge is on HGH on the weeklies. Hope they are wrong. Also, even with those anomalies with the EPO perhaps we get a gradient pattern and the H85 is not particularyl indicative of LL cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 This is, though, we are getting to the point in the calendar year where it can snow in SNE with +1 departures. And with +3 departures if the setup is right I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Also, even with those anomalies with the EPO perhaps we get a gradient pattern and the H85 is not particularyl indicative of LL cold. True, I thought about that..but +3 for a week avg is pretty bad. That's really high. As usual, week 3 and 4 can be out to lunch, but they haven't been all that bad overall. Hopefully that ridge depicted is big enough to help seep some cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 True, I thought about that..but +3 for a week avg is pretty bad. That's really high. As usual, week 3 and 4 can be out to lunch, but they haven't been all that bad overall. Hopefully that ridge depicted is big enough to help seep some cold in. Well it just snowed in a week that was anywheres from +6to+13 region wide, so anything can happen and the euro weeklies BLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 True, I thought about that..but +3 for a week avg is pretty bad. That's really high. As usual, week 3 and 4 can be out to lunch, but they haven't been all that bad overall. Hopefully that ridge depicted is big enough to help seep some cold in. As bad as it is just North of us is cold, give me -EPO or give me death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Today's prelim departures... BOS +5 BDL +6 PVD +5 ORH +4 Maybe by midnight these will get cut in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Today's prelim departures... BOS +5 BDL +6 PVD +5 ORH +4 Maybe by midnight these will get cut in half. highs at midnight lows at midnight, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Why does he dry hump the d10 euro op prog? He did this two weeks ago and got a fail. Not sure he is humping it....just laying out a plausibilty based off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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