snowNH Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 gfs is a classic swfe...energy emerging from the SW US....with a low cutting up over the midwest but the confluence over New England causing weak coastal cyclogenesis just south of SNE near the triple point. The ggem actually shows the same thing as the gfs ↓ At least its something to watch over the next couple of days and hopefully next week as well ↓ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The ggem actually shows the same thing as the gfs 12z euro looks like it's going to end up being a cutter. Confluence is there...but the cold air is marginal and the low is pretty strong in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 12z euro looks like it's going to end up being a cutter. Confluence is there...but the cold air is marginal and the low is pretty strong in the midwest. It's one of those "cold" cutters show verbatim. It has sw flow but thicknesses are rather cool...probably because it is weakening as it moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I don't...I have myself resigned to a snowless Decemeber. Well I'm trying to save Kevin's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 It's one of those "cold" cutters show verbatim. It has sw flow but thicknesses are rather cool...probably because it is weakening as it moves in. Sounds like we've got ourselvesa wintry threat to track snow to ice..If the things actually weakens like the Euro depicts and depending how far west it cuts..maybe we can even stay mostly snow.. How strong is the hp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 which is it? It might be both. orh now +10 for the month near normal weekend for them and again more positives next week, but like the weather my thoughts are changing for the holidays, I think it maybe close to climo which would allow for snow chances, hell orh had snow at +10. And for the record I love heat sun and fun, snowfall is number one, but if the pattern is so god awful then I enjoy embracing the torch, I like extremes and thats why i stayed up posting until 3am last night, it was awesome its my passion ..........its my pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Sounds like we've got ourselvesa wintry threat to track snow to ice..If the things actually weakens like the Euro depicts and depending how far west it cuts..maybe we can even stay mostly snow.. How strong is the hp? Not strong , it moves off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. It still is showing the cold shot during the weekend of the 18th....but again..a d10 op prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Not strong , it moves off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. It still is showing the cold shot during the weekend of the 18th....but again..a d10 op prog. Sounds great Scott one week at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 funny the back-and-forth oscillation between the 00z and 12z euro runs...i think that's 3 days in a row now where the 12z run was colder over the conus vs the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I tried posting the AO ... having trouble posting images in the new forum. http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml N PAC may change but with a very definitive +AO, I'm not sure it matters all that much. I agree with this in principle. I was discussing this with Messenger (of darkness and unrest...) the other night. The two biggest factors behind driving temperature anomalies over the U.S. (particularly for 40N) are the polarward indices, and the Pacific. If the polarward indices are positive, Pacific dominates. November was in a metaphoric sense a big chinook from off the western N/A cordillera. Warm anomalies prevail. When the polarward indices are negative, so are the temperatures. Now ... it is however possible that the NP goes into the AB phase while the AO is positive. The NP/EPO's relationship with the AO is similar to the NAO's relationship. They are positive correlated, but because their domain space(s) overlap, the correlation is naturally not 1::1. It is therefore possible to have a neutral EPO, +AO, but the southern aspect of the EPO's domain has +PNA/western N/A ridge response. In those scenarios, the EPO would in fact be negative if it were not for the AO's positive numbers tainting the field. Nonetheless, that type of set up tips the 55N vectors NW in Canada and often delivers modified polar air, which from the latter half of December through about March 15 isn't the worst thing that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Not a bad looking Euro at all. aside from a slight warm up early next week..I'd hit that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Not a bad looking Euro at all. aside from a slight warm up early next week..I'd hit that Yea, well....I hope so because it's the only chick @ the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 gfs is a classic swfe...energy emerging from the SW US....with a low cutting up over the midwest but the confluence over New England causing weak coastal cyclogenesis just south of SNE near the triple point. This will happen I'd bet and overperform on qpf just like every other system these last few months. H to the north and that is snow in CNE and NNE at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 This will happen I'd bet and overperform on qpf just like every other system these last few months. H to the north and that is snow in CNE and NNE at least. Your theory certainly held serve yesterday! jesus did we get some rain down here. many of the 2-lane country roads in route to the office had streams flowing out of the forests that line them. Which reminds me ... one must wonder if this is the chain of events that will lead to some impressive spring flooding. I was thinking about this while playing disk golf last weekend, how so many of the weekends ...since June really, had poor earth underfoot due to muddy areas. It kind of started last February when that 45" snow pack melted off (much to Kevin's dismay haha) and then it got wet and never really dried deeply. Now all this rain this autumn. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yea, well....I hope so because it's the only chick @ the party. And it's the ugly red-headed step sister. It's something to track at least. Breaks up the monotony of the pattern and fills in the gap till Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 funny the back-and-forth oscillation between the 00z and 12z euro runs...i think that's 3 days in a row now where the 12z run was colder over the conus vs the 00z heh, quite the hair-pulling match between siblings there: "no, southern stream dominates", "no northern stream dominates", "you let go!", "no you let go!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wxrisk Loves NOTIFICATION BIG CHANGE in 12z MODELS... 12z euro and to a lessor degree shows an INTERESTING change in their day 9 day 10 maps over N America-- with the day 10 euro strongly indicating SECS event DAY 11.. DEC 19... Both Models drive new cold front into the Midwest and Northeast DEC 117-18 bringing in fresh cold air ... then strong energy is southern Jet stream crashes into s CALIF DEC 16 into the great Basin s Rockies DEC 18. Now if.... *** IF *** IF*** the cold air holds when this Low comes east there COULD be 1st True winter storm of the season for much of the Lower Midwest and Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 May the good lord bless and keep the rollover ridge. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wxrisk Loves NOTIFICATION BIG CHANGE in 12z MODELS... 12z euro and to a lessor degree shows an INTERESTING change in their day 9 day 10 maps over N America-- with the day 10 euro strongly indicating SECS event DAY 11.. DEC 19... Both Models drive new cold front into the Midwest and Northeast DEC 117-18 bringing in fresh cold air ... then strong energy is southern Jet stream crashes into s CALIF DEC 16 into the great Basin s Rockies DEC 18. Now if.... *** IF *** IF*** the cold air holds when this Low comes east there COULD be 1st True winter storm of the season for much of the Lower Midwest and Northeast Why does he dry hump the d10 euro op prog? He did this two weeks ago and got a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Like I said...12/10-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 May the good lord bless and keep the rollover ridge. That is all. That's the great white hope...lol. It's there, so hopefully it does something. That's probably our "shot" at something...maybe 18th -20th...but again...."shot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow - that's an impressive appeal on D8-10 Euro mean! Split western N/A ridge/Rex couplet. If that persisted (not to mention verified), ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wxrisk Loves NOTIFICATION BIG CHANGE in 12z MODELS... 12z euro and to a lessor degree shows an INTERESTING change in their day 9 day 10 maps over N America-- with the day 10 euro strongly indicating SECS event DAY 11.. DEC 19... Both Models drive new cold front into the Midwest and Northeast DEC 117-18 bringing in fresh cold air ... then strong energy is southern Jet stream crashes into s CALIF DEC 16 into the great Basin s Rockies DEC 18. Now if.... *** IF *** IF*** the cold air holds when this Low comes east there COULD be 1st True winter storm of the season for much of the Lower Midwest and Northeast LC and DT in bed on coming pattern? We'll Deal with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Your theory certainly held serve yesterday! jesus did we get some rain down here. many of the 2-lane country roads in route to the office had streams flowing out of the forests that line them. Which reminds me ... one must wonder if this is the chain of events that will lead to some impressive spring flooding. I was thinking about this while playing disk golf last weekend, how so many of the weekends ...since June really, had poor earth underfoot due to muddy areas. It kind of started last February when that 45" snow pack melted off (much to Kevin's dismay haha) and then it got wet and never really dried deeply. Now all this rain this autumn. interesting. We have one hundred acres in the country side and a local farmer hays the land. He got a first cut in June but was never able to get a second cut because the field is so wet since August that they can't take equipment onto fields without chewing them up and/or getting stuck. Too wet to put any fertilzer on the field...no equipment able to get on their for over 4 months. This is a piece of land that slowly rises from about 500ft to almost 700 feet. It is quite a qpf run in terms of consistently heavy events. Perhaps a wholesale pattern change ends it but if we get a smaller change with just enough cold air present (like next week's swfe) then perhaps we get the best of both worlds....consistent qpf with cold air...cold air increases in Dec/Jan due to snow cover and we are off to the races. It would be a really nasty spring from a mud perspective if this happens. I tried to get the CON dailes since August to prove my assertion but the data is corrupted with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wxrisk Loves NOTIFICATION BIG CHANGE in 12z MODELS... 12z euro and to a lessor degree shows an INTERESTING change in their day 9 day 10 maps over N America-- with the day 10 euro strongly indicating SECS event DAY 11.. DEC 19... Both Models drive new cold front into the Midwest and Northeast DEC 117-18 bringing in fresh cold air ... then strong energy is southern Jet stream crashes into s CALIF DEC 16 into the great Basin s Rockies DEC 18. Now if.... *** IF *** IF*** the cold air holds when this Low comes east there COULD be 1st True winter storm of the season for much of the Lower Midwest and Northeast even when i try to fill in the words correctly, i have a hard time reading this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 even when i try to fill in the words correctly, i have a hard time reading this. It looks like a few blood clots went into his brain as he typed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GFS at 0z had these same threats at the same time and nobody noticed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 even when i try to fill in the words correctly, i have a hard time reading this. I understood what he meant, though. I would like to see the CDC, EPO numbers but they haven't updated them since the 4th. The EPO looks split NW-SE, with the southeaster flank pulled negative because it overlaps into a +PNA - that looks rather robust there. The GFS mean isn't hugely different, either. One thing I fiind interesting is the 10-D temp anomalies have gone back negative over much of Canada, the first time since the first week of November. [edit: not negative, but have cooled off...] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 even when i try to fill in the words correctly, i have a hard time reading this. You don't have the DT auto-correct app downloaded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Ok back to business.... 2 days...2 days left in the period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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