weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Rain and warmth all winter. pattern terrible, models show no sign of winter. MJO stuck in 4 all winter,ensembles look awful leading to record warm winter, flowers blooming in neighbors yards all winter, mowing every other week, full leaf out by mid Jan. No threats, no cold shots, nothing promising, negative is good positive is bad,, warm rains , severe wx outbreaks, bugs never dying, ladybugs in houses,soccer moms with mini van windows rolled down all winter,kids riding bikes in shirt sleeves to ring in the New Year, folks opening pools in late Jan, landscapers offering spring cleanups after holidays are over, folks installing air conditioners for Groundhogs day,first Lesco application Valentines Day,Opening day in baseball moved up to Feb 25th...negatiivity FTW, positivty FTL The market is crapping the bed today. Well we DO have the op prog of a SWFE...almost to the day in 2007.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The market is crapping the bed today. Well we DO have the op prog of a SWFE...almost to the day in 2007.... No way..Warm cutter..copious rains, strong southerlies, with dews approaching 60..maybe a low topped squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 No way..Warm cutter..copious rains, strong southerlies, with dews approaching 60..maybe a low topped squall line Well now you are finally making sense. Congrats. Enjoy the shady patches of snow when you get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Well now you are finally making sense. Congrats. Enjoy the shady patches of snow when you get home. Hopefully it's all melted and the grass has grown a little bit. I'm hoping to get a few mowings in before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Hopefully it's all melted and the grass has grown a little bit. I'm hoping to get a few mowings in before Christmas I'm glad we are now 20 days into this all out winter pattern you called for. You nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I'm glad we are now 20 days into this all out winter pattern you called for. You nailed it. This snowstorm coming up on the 12th looks like a doozy. Great job seeing that one from way out!! How'd you do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 My guess next week is that the storm is a mild one...the one at the end of the week. I don't really see any changes yet. You can tell the ridge wants to build, but it's not really convincing yet. Maybe it's trying to hint at something, but I think it's more of the same in the next 2-3 weeks or more....the overall pattern that is. We all know it doesn't mean snowless, but I don't see it as conducive for snow. It sucks, but it is what it is. Some see it as negativity, but its reality. These past 6 weeks have been excruciating for winter enthusiasts. Last night's storm track was an anomaly in this pattern - and still underperformed thanks to the garbage antecedent airmass. And today, it's as if someone cleaned out the trash but the sidewalk still reeks. Very much reminds me of Dec. 2006 when we'd have a front come through, only to be replaced by upper 40s. The airmass of the next few days is slightly better than the ones that month, but only by 5 or so degrees. Positive departures galore. Indices holding serve ... persistence is sometimes very powerful. The chart below might very well be the only thing you need to see to know what the next several weeks have in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Rain and warmth all winter. pattern terrible, models show no sign of winter. MJO stuck in 4 all winter,ensembles look awful leading to record warm winter, flowers blooming in neighbors yards all winter, mowing every other week, full leaf out by mid Jan. No threats, no cold shots, nothing promising, negative is good positive is bad,, warm rains , severe wx outbreaks, bugs never dying, ladybugs in houses,soccer moms with mini van windows rolled down all winter,kids riding bikes in shirt sleeves to ring in the New Year, folks opening pools in late Jan, landscapers offering spring cleanups after holidays are over, folks installing air conditioners for Groundhogs day,first Lesco application Valentines Day,Opening day in baseball moved up to Feb 25th...negatiivity FTW, positivty FTL Eat shi* and die! I'm going to make that my signature line if Bob allows it. I'm very optimistic about January and even later December until proven otherwise. I'm glad we are now 20 days into this all out winter pattern you called for. You nailed it. The weather is full blown winterish if you lived in Cancun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Eat shi* and die! I'm going to make that my signature line if Bob allows it. I'm very optimistic about January and even later December until proven otherwise. Dec 20th> looks decent to me, near normal temps and snow oppurtunities, near climo type stuff all we can ask for in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Last night's storm track was an anomaly in this pattern - and still underperformed thanks to the garbage antecedent airmass. And today, it's as if someone cleaned out the trash but the sidewalk still reeks. Very much reminds me of Dec. 2006 when we'd have a front come through, only to be replaced by upper 40s. The airmass of the next few days is slightly better than the ones that month, but only by 5 or so degrees. Positive departures galore. Indices holding serve ... persistence is sometimes very powerful. The chart below might very well be the only thing you need to see to know what the next several weeks have in store for us. Well I just hope maybe we can get a little more evidence of the PAC changing, but I don't see any significant evidence of it right now. Maybe if that cold shot near the 18th or 19th materializes..we can grab something then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 This snowstorm coming up on the 12th looks like a doozy. Great job seeing that one from way out!! How'd you do it? LOL what storm on the 12th? Hopefully you placed your order for the 10 yards of mulch you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Well I just hope maybe we can get a little more evidence of the PAC changing, but I don't see any significant evidence of it right now. Maybe if that cold shot near the 18th or 19th materialized..we can grab something then. I tried posting the AO ... having trouble posting images in the new forum. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml N PAC may change but with a very definitive +AO, I'm not sure it matters all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 LOL what storm on the 12th? Hopefully you placed your order for the 10 yards of mulch you get. You had been calling for a wintry storm sometime in the Dec 10th-15 timeframe..and had mentioned the 12th as the date you liked. Will you lay out on your roof for Christmas this year..start the tanning early this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Step down one has now occured.....nice chilly weekend with some teens and 20s for lows, above normal again next week then another step down following the swfe, the next cool down has more staying power and lasts through the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I tried posting the AO ... having trouble posting images in the new forum. http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml N PAC may change but with a very definitive +AO, I'm not sure it matters all that much. Sometimes if the ridging pushes up enough in the PAC, it can help tip the cold and push the jetsream south. We saw that especially in 2007 with a big +AO. In that snowy December, we actually had the vortex a little further south, such that it delivered some confluence over se Canada. Basically instead of lows moving west of us, it probably would be the gradient pattern we all talk about...lows moving up into the OV and then redeveloping near NYC and moving E or ENE. The AO would be the one responsible for keeping the track close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Need to make some ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Sometimes if the ridging pushes up enough in the PAC, it can help tip the cold and push the jetsream south. We saw that especially in 2007 with a big +AO. In that snowy December, we actually had the vortex a little further south, such that it delivered some confluence over se Canada. Basically instead of lows moving west of us, it probably would be the gradient pattern we all talk about...lows moving up into the OV and then redeveloping near NYC and moving E or ENE. The AO would be the one responsible for keeping the track close by. Last night was encouraging to me, nice to see lp move se of here, even in what was an unbelievable torch with a horrible trough axis, the PV did press far enough se. Hopefully moving forward with slightly better airmasses out ahead of any swfe the outcomes will be a bit more wintery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Step down one has now occured.....nice chilly weekend with some teens and 20s for lows, above normal again next week then another step down following the swfe, the next cool down has more staying power and lasts through the holidays. Joe, are you bipolar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 You had been calling for a wintry storm sometime in the Dec 10th-15 timeframe..and had mentioned the 12th as the date you liked. Will you lay out on your roof for Christmas this year..start the tanning early this year? There were a couple of times that looked favorable and didn't really pan out. I don't necessarily recall liking a date..just that something looked interesting at that range, but some of the periods that looked favorable got bad in a hurry. There is something early next week, but that is way offshore. You can relate that to the comparison I made yesterday with how cold the models were in the 11-15 day and then how bad they blew it...especially the GEFS. A pattern can look favorable or interesting for something, but that's why we use wording like that because favorable doesn't mean definite. I do try to be careful to not excite the weenies with certain words...maybe I sounded too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The pattern is very stable. This torch is going nowhere, in fact it looks like mid to late month perhaps will be worse, pretty hard to comprehend since some places will be close to +14 on the month after today. Oh yeah! which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Joe, are you bipolar? LOL, I could have sworn a few days ago a poster by that name was much more pessimistic. Seems like people are adjusting in waves and after a good nights sleep people come back refreshed until a series of days in the 50s with sunburns beats them back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Joe, are you bipolar? This is the "Real" Joe..The one who does actually like snow and cold..The "torch" Joe is sort oflike the torch "CT BLIZZ" he wants summers hot and nasty and trolling the unsuspecting..except CTBLIZZ stops that once September comes and doesn; want that wx anymore. He wants cold wx and winter. The torch Joe doesn't want torch wx this time of year either, but has trouble stopping the warm wx trolling ..even though by September ..it's no longer fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 You had been calling for a wintry storm sometime in the Dec 10th-15 timeframe..and had mentioned the 12th as the date you liked. Will you lay out on your roof for Christmas this year..start the tanning early this year? i think that may have been me...i know i said something to the affect of "liking the 9th - 14th" for a more wintry-type of storm. don't think i used an exact date though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 LOL, I could have sworn a few days ago a poster by that name was much more pessimistic. Seems like people are adjusting in waves and after a good nights sleep people come back refreshed until a series of days in the 50s with sunburns beats them back. yeah..yesterday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 There were a couple of times that looked favorable and didn't really pan out. I don't necessarily recall liking a date..just that something looked interesting at that range, but some of the periods that looked favorable got bad in a hurry. There is something early next week, but that is way offshore. You can relate that to the comparison I made yesterday with how cold the models were in the 11-15 day and then how bad they blew it...especially the GEFS. A pattern can look favorable or interesting for something, but that's why we use wording like that because favorable doesn't mean definite. I do try to be careful to not excite the weenies with certain words...maybe I sounded too bullish. I hadn't noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I hadn't noticed. You love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I hadn't noticed. lol...he had to sneak that in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I suppose if you want to hope, next week offers a cool down mid week or so. If the trough out west isn't terribly strong...I could see a SWFE with that low. If, the trough isn't strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I suppose if you want to hope, next week offers a cool down mid week or so. If the trough out west isn't terribly strong...I could see a SWFE with that low. If, the trough isn't strong. I don't...I have myself resigned to a snowless Decemeber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 gfs is a classic swfe...energy emerging from the SW US....with a low cutting up over the midwest but the confluence over New England causing weak coastal cyclogenesis just south of SNE near the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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