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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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JB showed the Canadiens Ensembles which has a nice PNA christmas week

And I've heard over and over again they did pretty well recently.

I don't think the Goofus looks bad at all that week. Looks like we'll have rough threats around the 14/15th, 17/18 which may merge towards one date as the GFS often does, then again around the 21s...and 25/26

A lull for several days than more interesting weather starts around the 15th. JMHO

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And I've heard over and over again they did pretty well recently.

I don't think the Goofus looks bad at all that week.  Looks like we'll have rough threats around the 14/15th, 17/18 which may merge towards one date as the GFS often does, then again around the 21s...and 25/26

A lull for several days than more interesting weather starts around the 15th. JMHO

I agree, Kevin says no more snow in Dec but there are chances always.

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What a freaking bomb that storm was.. fun to track.. it seems like everything wants to go nuclear this year.

I really have a feeling we are going to see another HECS.. even in a crappy pattern, we still are seeing snow chances! Think of that, it was 63 on Monday here and I actually saw snow.last night!

Well it looks like I probably wont see anymore storm chances between now and when I leave for California.. hopefully something pops up for the days prior to me leaving, but that is probably doubtful

I hope I come back to a changed pattern, a changed board attitude, and a change to the color of my yard! (Actually, no I don't that means you guys got snow when I was gone! Lol)

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I agree, Kevin says no more snow in Dec but there are chances always.

Everyone craps on the GFS and I agree raw verifications it's been terrible but even back in November if we looked at the really long term stuff it always had a wintry threat around the 6th to the 8th. It's good for very casual glances and it's prone to combining threats where it'll have two more minor events a day or two apart at 180+ hours that become one. That said it has at least three or four threat windows between now and about the 25th in that date range I mentioned. What I like is down the road storms seem to be moving without as much S/N but then again this one yesterday was a sheared miss on the GFS so who knows?

A quick look at ski reports this morning was not inspiring. I really hope this upcoming week is the end of this pattern.

Forecasts up north are plenty cold now for many nights of snowmaking. The big resorts up north should have a pretty large window to make snow now and if we get lucky may only have a few days between now and Xmas when they can't at night.

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sunday has a good shot. saturday might be harder. daytime temps might be at or below but not sure you make the low work out.

amazingly, climo now for a spot like BDL is 40/24...that seems flat out frigid now.

This points out how early we are...those climo norms are mild vs mid winter.

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This points out how early we are...those climo norms are mild vs mid winter.

yeah they are mild for mid-winter...but also way way colder than anything we've seen in a long time.

honestly it's hard to picture daytime temps consistently in the 30s/40s and overnight lows solidly in the 20s right now - we are still seeing October-like weather

even the cool shots have had a tough time delivering that / seasonable.

i think saturday PM - Sunday PM will be the first time we are actually "cold" instead of just less warm.

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Sunday will likely be below normal. Saturday probably above...mildly so.

The problem now is normals are going down quickly. So a day in the mid 40s or higher next week with a low around 30 is pretty solid +departure.

Sat AM looks like the coldest nite of the yr with the front coming thru late tomorrow afternoon evening. I could see BDL get down to 23-24 with a high of 38

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Man, you snow lovers are taking it in the can this season so far - haha. wow. The cryosphere product at NCEP clearly shows that other than the OV/NE, and Europe, everyone at our latitude has been in a winter bonanza and has a snow pack to show for it.

Talk about being left out of the party!

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Man, you snow lovers are taking it in the can this season so far - haha. wow. The cryosphere product at NCEP clearly shows that other than the OV/NE, and Europe, everyone at our latitude has been in a winter bonanza and has a snow pack to show for it.

Talk about being left out of the party!

It's December 8th.

Man, you snow lovers are taking it in the can this season so far

Are you disassociating yourself from this group???

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Man, you snow lovers are taking it in the can this season so far - haha. wow. The cryosphere product at NCEP clearly shows that other than the OV/NE, and Europe, everyone at our latitude has been in a winter bonanza and has a snow pack to show for it.

Talk about being left out of the party!

This pattern sucks so bad we just had a December bombing low pass to our SE and instead of having frigid air in place after, my high is gonna be in the low 40s haha... this airmass is like that musty basement atmosphere that no matter how cold or how hot it gets outside, it's always like 45-50 degrees

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It's December 8th.

Are you disassociating yourself from this group???

Eh, I was never IN that group....

Although I like snow storms because of the interesting Meteorology that provides them, I do not obsess over snow. And by "this group??", I consider my self as always an outsider scratching my head trying figure out why it exists.

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Man, you snow lovers are taking it in the can this season so far - haha. wow. The cryosphere product at NCEP clearly shows that other than the OV/NE, and Europe, everyone at our latitude has been in a winter bonanza and has a snow pack to show for it.

Talk about being left out of the party!

LOL...I love how you pretend your not a snow lover..you're one of the worst.

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Eh, I was never IN that group....

Although I like snow storms because of the interesting Meteorology that provides them, I do not obsess over snow. And by "this group??", I consider my self as always an outsider scratching my head trying figure out why it exists.

Fair enough. I'm with you; Snowstorms are fascinating..snow by itself is not.

I would exchange 2 months of consistent snow cover for 1 HECS, in a heartbeat.

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