Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i know exactly what you are saying...funny though because i don't really see (perhaps it's eye-of-the-beholder in some respects) tonight/tomorrow as real atmospheric house-cleaning. it just doesn't have that "feel" to me. Yep me neither. The antecedent airmass is a toaster. There's no wind at all behind the warm temps. There will be wind when the cooler air works in which tells me up to this point the dominate airmass has been the toaster. One aspect of these torches lost is that we are doing it on some fairly calm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The correlation at CDC is split out monthly because Dec has significantly smaller L/W lengths compared to the max in Feb right before the spring contraction... That said, the correlation is positive and averages +.6 For the common parlance that means that the AO and NAO are disconnected ~40% of the time. So the majority of times the NAO will be negative when the AO is, but 40% is a big enough number to pay attention. Right now, the AO/NAO are moving right along to the cadence of the screw-winter-drummer, so all is predictably annoying. I am pretty sure the Correlation between AO and NAO is .82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i know exactly what you are saying...funny though because i don't really see (perhaps it's eye-of-the-beholder in some respects) tonight/tomorrow as real atmospheric house-cleaning. it just doesn't have that "feel" to me. Prolly, not - no. But it still reminds us just the same. I thought it was also interesting just over the last couple of hours watching that 45F air mass roll down the eastern Mass coastal plain, eradicating the 55F charm left over from yesterday. that should ensure at least cool rain as oppose to mild rains. Making progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I am pretty sure the Correlation between AO and NAO is .82 It may very source to source, but CDC calculates Dec with .57, Jan at .68, and Feb at .62 ... so the 3 month mean is 60 and change. not sure where you get .82 from, but if that source has different domain spacing where the overlap is calculated thus using different values, sure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It may very source to source, but CDC calculates Dec with .57, Jan at .68, and Feb at .62 ... so the 3 month mean is 60 and change. not sure where you get .82 from, but if that source has different domain spacing where the overlap is calculated thus using different values, sure - http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/other_papers/AONAO.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Prolly, not - no. But it still reminds us just the same. I thought it was also interesting just over the last couple of hours watching that 45F air mass roll down the eastern Mass coastal plain, eradicating the 55F charm left over from yesterday. that should ensure at least cool rain as oppose to mild rains. Making progress. I think a lot of us torch again after 2z tonight. We are probably seeing the low temps for the day right now to about 730pm. You may be far enough NW, but Jerry/Scott/Steve/Kev/Phil and I are likely to get roasty again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yep me neither. The antecedent airmass is a toaster. There's no wind at all behind the warm temps. There will be wind when the cooler air works in which tells me up to this point the dominate airmass has been the toaster. One aspect of these torches lost is that we are doing it on some fairly calm days. don't have to even go there to come to that conclusion... The link I provided above outright says that. problem is that we were abandoned by the AO/NAO during November and still reel from that. without the polarward influene on the middle latitudes over the U.S., the Pacific will ALWAYS dominate. In a proverbial sort of sense ...it's a been a giant chinook event since halloween. The recent advent of "some" western height recovery is trying desperately to get cold S of the U.S. Can boarder, but it is pulling teeth for the cold weather enthusiast waiting this out. Once this storm goes by, we'll cash in somewhat on the anomalous cryosphere up N... It bombs on the way out and jolts the area with a decent enough CAA. In fact, the majority of operational and ensemble packages show that the 60F plague has no means to return really post this system's translation. The mean flow sort of settles into a +PNAP pattern (differnet distinction to a PNA). By PNAP, perennial north-american patter, which features a low amplitude western ridge, easter trough ...this, in the means. That should line up the 540dm geopotential isopleth ...oh, DEN to ACY, then waver it up and down 15 degrees of latitude per cyclonic progression. ice, rain and snow would be the p-type preference in that, with occasional nuckle numbers on the steering wheel; a characterization we hadn't seen across the entire month of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I think a lot of us torch again after 2z tonight. We are probably seeing the low temps for the day right now to about 730pm. You may be far enough NW, but Jerry/Scott/Steve/Kev/Phil and I are likely to get roasty again tonight. If it makes you happy - sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 don't have to even go there to come to that conclusion... The link I provided above outright says that. problem is that we were abandoned by the AO/NAO during November and still reel from that. without the polarward influene on the middle latitudes over the U.S., the Pacific will ALWAYS dominate. In a proverbial sort of sense ...it's a been a giant chinook event since halloween. The recent advent of "some" western height recovery is trying desperately to get cold S of the U.S. Can boarder, but it is pulling teeth for the cold weather enthusiast waiting this out. Once this storm goes by, we'll cash in somewhat on the anomalous cryosphere up N... It bombs on the way out and jolts the area with a decent enough CAA. In fact, the majority of operational and ensemble packages show that the 60F plague has no means to return really post this system's translation. The mean flow sort of settles into a +PNAP pattern (differnet distinction to a PNA). By PNAP, perennial north-american patter, which features a low amplitude western ridge, easter trough ...this, in the means. That should line up the 540dm geopotential isopleth ...oh, DEN to ACY, then waver it up and down 15 degrees of latitude per cyclonic progression. ice, rain and snow would be the p-type preference in that, with occasional nuckle numbers on the steering wheel; a characterization we hadn't seen across the entire month of Nov. Agree but will also mention that back around and just beyond Thanksgiving there was absolutely no indication we'd torch like this again. In fact I think most of us thought the last warm shot last week was it for the uber torches yet here we are..... Agreed it should take a step down a notch but it may still get warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Agree but will also mention that back around and just beyond Thanksgiving there was absolutely no indication we'd torch like this again. In fact I think most of us thought the last warm shot last week was it for the uber torches yet here we are..... Agreed it should take a step down a notch but it may still get warmer again. In retrospect there was, though - It frightens people just how easy this is. Look: 1) no -ao/-nao/-epo, Pac dominates; warmer than normal 2) yes -ao/-nao/-epo, polar dominates; cooler than normal everything else is up to details, but that is your canvas. Looking back then, option 1) was unfortunate to the snow geese not well handled by those sources that forecast the teleconnectors - your's truly included. the prog kep indicating D7 index falls, but then the next night would push that out another day. I'd also add that even without this logic, to say it will warm up again because no one saw the current warm up is shaky at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 In retrospect there was, though - It frightens people just how easy this is. Look: 1) no -ao/-nao/-epo, Pac dominates; warmer than normal 2) yes -ao/-nao/-epo, polar dominates; cooler than normal everything else is up to details, but that is your canvas. Looking back then, option 1) was unfortunate to the snow geese not well handled by those sources that forecast the teleconnectors - your's truly included. the prog kep indicating D7 index falls, but then the next night would push that out another day. I'd also add that even without this logic, to say it will warm up again because no one saw the current warm up is shaky at best. Yeah I agree. I think we also used wording in that we still were in this pattern with limited EPO ridging and no blocking.....meaning the risk was warmer. I know we talked about it pretty readily, but it is impossible to determine specifics about how warm it would be. There was def the risk of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah I agree. I think we also used wording in that we still were in this pattern with limited EPO ridging and no blocking.....meaning the risk was warmer. I know we talked about it pretty readily, but it is impossible to determine specifics about how warm it would be. There was def the risk of warmth. Great analysis by you guys, just spectacular the way you laid out how fragile any cold would be. Makes this sub forum so very special. That being said tonight's storm at least switches things up for a while. Going to be nice not to run the fan or sweat while working. thanks again to you, Ryan, Phil, Will, Tip, Mitch, Ocean State and Mek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 In retrospect there was, though - It frightens people just how easy this is. Look: 1) no -ao/-nao/-epo, Pac dominates; warmer than normal 2) yes -ao/-nao/-epo, polar dominates; cooler than normal everything else is up to details, but that is your canvas. Looking back then, option 1) was unfortunate to the snow geese not well handled by those sources that forecast the teleconnectors - your's truly included. the prog kep indicating D7 index falls, but then the next night would push that out another day. I'd also add that even without this logic, to say it will warm up again because no one saw the current warm up is shaky at best. I'll agree with you but while also saying there's mounting evidence it torches again later in the month. IE, we get this cold shot, a return to average and then some warning signs it could get really warm again for December. Not sold on that yet, but we may be looking back fondly on melted cookies on Xmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I'll agree with you but while also saying there's mounting evidence it torches again later in the month. IE, we get this cold shot, a return to average and then some warning signs it could get really warm again for December. Not sold on that yet, but we may be looking back fondly on melted cookies on Xmas night. Why? based on what - It's only been warm because the ao/nao took time off. They're both falling now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Why? based on what - It's only been warm because the ao/nao took time off. They're both falling now... TT, I think we head into the purely gradient pattern others have been talking about as the wc ridge breaks down. Average to somewhat below through about the 12th or 13th, then a storm that rides into the lakes and then a period of colder weather. Between now and about the 20th I expect the average to below periods will be more prominent than the warm periods reversing the current pattern. Around the 20th...that's where I think we either make or break the change. I still think its mainly delayed until 2012 early, but I'm no longer sold that we are cooked at the end of this month. To me it looks like a pattern coming down of a high with nothing particularly dominant towards the end of the month. I do believe though towards XMas we'll either see this thing reload and we're screwed, or we will see the pattern actually changing away to cold. Toss up in my mind right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GFS is warmer after the cold shot this weekend. Across the board handling things differently after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GFS is warmer after the cold shot this weekend. Across the board handling things differently after Monday. White Christmas verbatim with a snowstorm on the 17 th, cold to hold it after. Now that would be apropo, unlikely but certainly apropo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 White Christmas verbatim with a snowstorm on the 17 th, cold to hold it after. Now that would be apropo, unlikely but certainly apropo. Lol....I wil be rather upset with that outcome considering the time, effort, and very significnt $$ outlay I'm shouldering that day whether or nt folks can come.... But for that reason, it will probably happen..,the one day in my life I dont want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Happy to return to the 'non-pinned' threads. We need some good juju to get a real performer going. Seems like a pretty quiet time setting up. Hopefully short-lived. 29.8/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 And real winter continues it's long hiatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Happy to return to the 'non-pinned' threads. We need some good juju to get a real performer going. Seems like a pretty quiet time setting up. Hopefully short-lived. 29.8/25 Or just seasonable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Any good news on the overnight ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Any good news on the overnight ensembles? We warm up later next week...well a good part of the week may be warmer than normal except for a one day cool down mid week. Could be pretty mild Thursday and Friday before cooling off again. Still waiting to see if models want to doing any raising of heights in the NPAC, but I don't see convincing evidence yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 We warm up later next week...well a good part of the week may be warmer than normal except for a one day cool down mid week. Could be pretty mild Thursday and Friday before cooling off again. Still waiting to see if models want to doing any raising of heights in the NPAC, but I don't see convincing evidence yet. Are they still showing the hint of height rises in the NPAC in the very long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 We warm up later next week...well a good part of the week may be warmer than normal except for a one day cool down mid week. Could be pretty mild Thursday and Friday before cooling off again. Still waiting to see if models want to doing any raising of heights in the NPAC, but I don't see convincing evidence yet. How warm is warm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 How warm is warm next week? I'm guessing 50+. 13 days straight above normal and counting. Son of the elephant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Are they still showing the hint of height rises in the NPAC in the very long range? How warm is warm next week? Well the low may go west of us later next week, so Friday or so could be very mild...like 50s. At least Wednesday into Thursday has a cool shot, but nothing terribly exciting. Jerry I still don't see anything convincing yet, especially since it is right at the end of the EC run. As Dick Albert would say..... M.O.T.S. More Of The Same. Of course we have the give the old caveat by saying there will be cool shots, but the overall pattern is stuck. Still can't even get a flake in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Jerry I still don't see anything convincing yet, especially since it is right at the end of the EC run. As Dick Albert would say..... M.O.T.S. More Of The Same. Of course we have the give the old caveat by saying there will be cool shots, but the overall pattern is stuck. Still can't even get a flake in these parts. Well the silver lining approach would be at least they haven't gotten worse.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I should take a pic of the house across the street. They have a planting bed that gets torched by the sun all day and is tucked in by the house so it is protected. It's still fooking blooming...I kid you not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I should take a pic of the house across the street. They have a planting bed that gets torched by the sun all day and is tucked in by the house so it is protected. It's still fooking blooming...I kid you not. BOS +8.4 for December. I wonder what the all time record is for all of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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