Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yup..if "they"re" out at the GTG.."They"re" gonna be pretty cold and taut" i'll be happy to drive home and see the car thermo in the 20s...and not simply because of radiational cooling. euro's been waffling a lot in the extended (what's new) but it's fairly "chilly" overall. certainly not below normal wall to wall by any means but not a brutal torch either...the 2m temps are normalish by day. this run is similar to yesterdays' 12z. while the 00z was quite similar to yesterday's 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not an awful looking Euro run today at all. In fact even thru day 10 looks decent. And it appears to be cooking up a snowstorm beyond D10 fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i'll be happy to drive home and see the car thermo in the 20s...and not simply because of radiational cooling. euro's been waffling a lot in the extended (what's new) but it's fairly "chilly" overall. certainly not below normal wall to wall by any means but not a brutal torch either...the 2m temps are normalish by day. this run is similar to yesterdays' 12z. while the 00z was quite similar to yesterday's 00z. Yeah today's Euro is actually even better than yesterdays. At least it's offering some promise. It actually isn't that different than what the GEFS have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well yesterday I thought it was a 4-8er for me and Brian. DT still thinks it is btw according to his last call. Thank goodness I am out of the country until Saturday night. We might not be as cooked as you for the next few weeks, just given how the fall has gone. In terms of rubberbands....did 2001 2002 feature extremely warm Nov and Dec? This is a very long very warm stretch...that is suggestive of a rubberband that snaps much sooner. Last winter didn't get cranking until Boxing Day. To me,the pattern will shift and it still may be shifted by Dec 25, the day of the birth of a most famous Jew. Start davening Rebbe. 2001-02 went summer through early April with heat, then the band snapped. But this is not the same kind of winter it would seem. Moses just said Hi. We shall see. I hope it snaps soon because it's so warm I'm becoming annoyed at everyone...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well yesterday I thought it was a 4-8er for me and Brian. DT still thinks it is btw according to his last call. Thank goodness I am out of the country until Saturday night. We might not be as cooked as you for the next few weeks, just given how the fall has gone. In terms of rubberbands....did 2001 2002 feature extremely warm Nov and Dec? This is a very long very warm stretch...that is suggestive of a rubberband that snaps much sooner. Last winter didn't get cranking until Boxing Day. To me,the pattern will shift and it still may be shifted by Dec 25, the day of the birth of a most famous Jew. Start davening Rebbe. Couple questions - What is a "4-8er", and which of DT's posts are you referring to (haven't seen anything new from him long range on the website or Facebook for about a week - maybe I missed something)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 1946 was under 20" of snow. 1990 was under 20" of snow. 2001 was under 20" of snow. 2 of the 3 last 20" or less winters are on that list, and none of the winters on that list compare to this fall in terms of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Couple questions - What is a "4-8er", and which of DT's posts are you referring to (haven't seen anything new from him long range on the website or Facebook for about a week - maybe I missed something)? 4-8 inches! That's what living in Florida does to you.... (went to UF btw) DT on Facebook and at his site has his "final call" for tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 When I want to be depressed...I just open this thread. No other thread on the boards is even close to this negativity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 4-8 inches! That's what living in Florida does to you.... (went to UF btw) DT on Facebook and at his site has his "final call" for tonight/tomorrow. Gotcha! Got my MBA and law degree here; did 6 years in South Bend IN before that, so got pretty used to snow, and I hike the AT a lot and get plenty of fall/winter snow that way, plus "snow chase" to NC any time I can. Anyway - Go Gators! p.s. - it did flurry here a couple times last winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 When I want to be depressed...I just open this thread. No other thread on the boards is even close to this negativity! If you listen to Messenger and Litchfield there will be no winter this year. If you really want to get depressed open this thread TMR when a great majority of the geo region has snow OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you listen to Messenger and Litchfield there will be no winter this year. If you really want to get depressed open this thread TMR when a great majority of the geo region has snow OTG. It's interesting that 2 of the last 3 under 20" snows came in the warm fall years. That's not something that can be spun. And as far as the cold goes you've been saying it's coming for a month....eventually you'll be right. That's a zing. A few weeks ago people were talking about early December being the cooling period/seasonable...we're running 7-10 above the first week. I'm not saying winter is over, I'm saying in all likelihood at least the next two maybe 3 weeks are toast with some hope of a change in early to mid January. I've been pretty consistent in indicating I didn't think Logan would see an inch again until 2012. Been saying that for a few weeks. Not "this" change which is just a colder rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 2001-02 went summer through early April with heat, then the band snapped. But this is not the same kind of winter it would seem. Moses just said Hi. We shall see. I hope it snaps soon because it's so warm I'm becoming annoyed at everyone...... You still think a 93-94 type winter is possible, with the polar vortex collapsing into the lakes and New England in late December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For once the EC ensembles look like the op near d-10. That transient ridge in the GOA helps dump some cold into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This - http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Regional/.N_America/.Atm_Temp/Anomaly.html Although use with caution because above normal at 50N is still plausibly snowy. But it's been a balmy autumn and the positive bias in the AO (that is also anti-correlated against the multi-decadal signal much to our chagrin!) imho is hugely culpable - just like it was back in '06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This - http://iridl.ldeo.co...mp/Anomaly.html Although use with caution because above normal at 50N is still plausibly snowy. But it's been a balmy autumn and the positive bias in the AO (that is also anti-correlated against the multi-decadal signal much to our chagrin!) imho is hugely culpable - just like it was back in '06. no denying the current situation. by-the-way - check your PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For once the EC ensembles look like the op near d-10. That transient ridge in the GOA helps dump some cold into the US. Doesn't last too long, but maybe something can come about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For once the EC ensembles look like the op near d-10. That transient ridge in the GOA helps dump some cold into the US. i'm "interested" to watch the evolution over the next week or so to see how/if the warm spells evolve. the pattern is a little weird later this week into next...i wonder if we see the SE ridge flex once again or if it stays a bit flatter like its modeled. what we end up with on some of the euro runs is a sort of no-man's land temp regime...the troughs lift out but things don't really torch either without a series of storms riding into the GL. it almost looks spring-like in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They are still trying to at least slightly raise heights near the Aleutians. Maybe...and I mean this really loosely, but we might be seeing some signs of movement with this pattern. Seems to be a few signals possible of change, but it could easily go back into the crapper, so I wouldn't hold out hope yet. I'd like to see some gradual advancement going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i'm "interested" to watch the evolution over the next week or so to see how/if the warm spells evolve. the pattern is a little weird later this week into next...i wonder if we see the SE ridge flex once again or if it stays a bit flatter like its modeled. what we end up with on some of the euro runs is a sort of no-man's land temp regime...the troughs lift out but things don't really torch either without a series of storms riding into the GL. it almost looks spring-like in that respect. Yeah I noticed. Big old high pressure over head with probably mild days and cool nights. Ideal for fall foliage..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i'm "interested" to watch the evolution over the next week or so to see how/if the warm spells evolve. the pattern is a little weird later this week into next...i wonder if we see the SE ridge flex once again or if it stays a bit flatter like its modeled. what we end up with on some of the euro runs is a sort of no-man's land temp regime...the troughs lift out but things don't really torch either without a series of storms riding into the GL. it almost looks spring-like in that respect. Yeah I did get that message - sounds amazing. That pulse experienced was the isentropic wind produced by the fold; basically, mix stratosphere air into a region of NVA and it's static stability level is less than the planet surface, so you have a Rosanne Ba-bar sized lobe of air in freefall. Macroburst really. In some extreme cases it can sustain like that - storm that cause the Edmond Fitsgerald (nice and snuggly nyuk nyuk - in a non gender specific way...) did this across the open waters of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you listen to Messenger and Litchfield there will be no winter this year. If you really want to get depressed open this thread TMR when a great majority of the geo region has snow OTG. Great majority? Well I guess the 3 NNE states with sparse populations will make that true. But thje great majority of people in all of NE will have bare ground in their BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Has there been a correlation done between phases of the AO and NAO? I'm curious what the odds are of getting a -NAO with a hugely positive AO? I'm sure it's not highly likely but I'm curious of the historical numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They are still trying to at least slightly raise heights near the Aleutians. Maybe...and I mean this really loosely, but we might be seeing some signs of movement with this pattern. Seems to be a few signals possible of change, but it could easily go back into the crapper, so I wouldn't hold out hope yet. I'd like to see some gradual advancement going forward. 12/10-25. O yee of little faith (me..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Tomorrow's weeklies will look better for the longer range and everyone will rejoice. But the signs are not good at this point in time....just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 12/10-25. O yee of little faith (me..) My guess is that we ride the "overall" pattern into at least early January, but hopefully we can get some spells of more wintry wx later this month and into early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 12/10-25. O yee of little faith (me..) I don't think there's any doubt it's beginning to change. I just think the next stop on the train is not a ton better than what we have now. Better, but will it matter without blocking? After that the pattern will either reform and we'll have one of the worst winters ever, or it'll turn colder and snowier in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah I noticed. Big old high pressure over head with probably mild days and cool nights. Ideal for fall foliage..lol. It's funny to me... The phenomenon that is atmospheric "phenomena" does not discriminate between rain storms, snow storms, wind storms, ice storms, ...whatever. But this concept of the "pattern needing time to reload post bigger events", is still very real. What that means is, you can be rolling right along and get into a multiple nickle and dime snow events spanning several weeks, which for me is the better bargain. Or, you can get clocked by a 1992 event, but then have to wait until March of 1993 to have anything of interest come along again. Even if not for pattern reloading timeout, just because the shear probability of bigger events is so intrinsically lower, you'd "likely" have to wait just for the odds of the thing. But what is darkly funny in a not so ha-ha kinda way ... is that you can get an October 29 thing, then have to wait your 5 to 6 weeks for anything interesting to happen/reload (whatever we want to call it), only to have whatever is reloaded be a rainy coastal with a rare tropospheric fold potential. In other words, it is equally possible to suffer a long reload timeout, only to have what is reloaded by a rossined up cosmic dildo. And the downshot? (goodie!) now we get to wait another 30 day to load up the pattern for the next crazy rain storm anomaly. Ha ha. The atmosphere is doing what it always does, no harm, no foul. Buuuut.... this whole irony doesn't apply to me because I think this thing going by early tomorrow is going to fascinating either way. I think for those that are involved just for winter fare ...heh, for you, this is as tough a go as last year's 45 days of glory were in the other direction. Wow. sorry dudes/dudettes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Has there been a correlation done between phases of the AO and NAO? I'm curious what the odds are of getting a -NAO with a hugely positive AO? I'm sure it's not highly likely but I'm curious of the historical numbers. The correlation at CDC is split out monthly because Dec has significantly smaller L/W lengths compared to the max in Feb right before the spring contraction... That said, the correlation is positive and averages +.6 For the common parlance that means that the AO and NAO are disconnected ~40% of the time. So the majority of times the NAO will be negative when the AO is, but 40% is a big enough number to pay attention. Right now, the AO/NAO are moving right along to the cadence of the screw-winter-drummer, so all is predictably annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's funny to me... The phenomenon that is atmospheric "phenomena" does not discriminate between rain storms, snow storms, wind storms, ice storms, ...whatever. But this concept of the "pattern needing time to reload post bigger events", is still very real. What that means is, you can be rolling right along and get into a multiple nickle and dime snow events spanning several weeks, which for me is the better bargain. Or, you can get clocked by a 1992 event, but then have to wait until March of 1993 to have anything of interest come along again. Even if not for pattern reloading timeout, just because the shear probability of bigger events is so intrinsically lower, you'd "likely" have to wait just for the odds of the thing. But was is darkly funny in a not so ha-ha kinda way ... is that you can get an October 29 thing, then have to wait your 5 to 6 weeks for anything interesting to happen/reload (whatever we want to call it), only to have whatever is reloaded be a rainy coastal with a rare tropospheric fold potential. In other words, it is equally possible to suffer a long reload timeout, only to have what is reloaded by a rossined up cosmic dildo. And the downshot? (goodie!) now we get to wait another 30 day to load up the pattern for the next crazy rain storm anomaly. Ha ha. The atmosphere is doing what it always does, no harm, no foul. Buuuut.... this whole irony doesn't apply to me because I think this thing going by early tomorrow is going to fascinating either way. I think for those that are involved just for winter fare ...heh, for you, this is as tough a go as last year's 45 days of glory were in the other direction. Wow. sorry dudes/dudettes. i know exactly what you are saying...funny though because i don't really see (perhaps it's eye-of-the-beholder in some respects) tonight/tomorrow as real atmospheric house-cleaning. it just doesn't have that "feel" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Great majority? Well I guess the 3 NNE states with sparse populations will make that true. But thje great majority of people in all of NE will have bare ground in their BY. Yea there is a difference between geo region and populace but I thought that was a known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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