Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Time to roll out a new thread. Models are hinting at he possibility of a couple storm in about a week or so. Still plenty of time for this to either way. Here is the link to the previous discussion. http://www.americanw...dpattern-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Lets put it this way, we could be putting our hopes an a weak coastal or be in Buffalo like Kevin at a Bills Titans game.... I'd rather be where we are now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 There's some outside hope for something next Thursday, but overall I'm fairly pessimistic about it. The pattern remains pretty terrible for a coastal type system to give us winter precip. Hopefully we can muster a SWFE that gives a good shot at snow in the 5-7 days after that, but there is plenty of risk for a warm storm too in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Who's ready for the 00z gfs to show a 50F rainstorm and dash all weenie hopes of a snowstorm? I feel we see some snow on the end of the wave passahe but no biggie with such a +NAO and SE ridge at that time. Pay more attention to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 There's some outside hope for something next Thursday, but overall I'm fairly pessimistic about it. The pattern remains pretty terrible for a coastal type system to give us winter precip. Hopefully we can muster a SWFE that gives a good shot at snow in the 5-7 days after that, but there is plenty of risk for a warm storm too in that time frame. I'm certainly not high on any big coastals either. My gut thinks the 1st system pans out better than the latter. I think the pattern will have gone back in the crapper by than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Cold air comes in a bit too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Cold air comes in a bit too late You've turned into Debbie Downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Wednesday: Rain and snow showers likely. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. It'll be good to add a few inches to the seasonal total this week. Interesting stuff in the AO+ thread. The dam will break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You've turned into Debbie Downer. I think it is still too early. Another week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Wednesday: Rain and snow showers likely. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. It'll be good to add a few inches to the seasonal total this week. Interesting stuff in the AO+ thread. The dam will break. It's gonna take some time and we must be patient. 00z GFS is up and running. Out to 66h on EWall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 1995-96 kicked off with a swfe. Keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think it is still too early. Another week Certainly going to be another above normal stretch going into mid week. 50's and 60's for highs. Lows in the 40's. Just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Front clears the coast by mid day wednesday per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 BOX on Wednesday night: ONE OF THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS IS A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SURFACE WAVE THAT COULD PASS JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH POSSIBLY JUST MARGINALLY ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND/OR THU MORNING. THE LATEST CANADIAN MODEL DEPICTS THIS AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE. THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY. AS LONG AS THE NAO REMAINS POSITIVE AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE USA SO DOMINANT...INCLINED TO THINK RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR OFF THE COAST IS NOT LIKELY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUM APPEARS QUESTIONABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Potent vort at 96h on the GFS over the TX/OK border. This piece of energy would be our first potential system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think it is still too early. Another week Eh, I'm working my azz off these days so when the dam bursts, and it will burst, I will be able to ski, ski and ski some more. Then I'll go to AK and ski, ski, ski some more. It's gonna take some time and we must be patient. 00z GFS is up and running. Out to 66h on EWall I'm very patient. I just don't get down and view everything through a negative lens. Winter is magic and magic happens when you least expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 1995-96 kicked off with a swfe. Keep hope alive 2011-2012 kicked off with a HECS in October...lol Squirrels going koo koo here. Very active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Pete is banking on the JMA and Canadian Can't say he doesn't try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS is going to be suppressed with the D5 wave. There's really not much room for this thing to produce winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS is going to be suppressed with the D5 wave. There's really not much room for this thing to produce winter precip. Yeah, not throwing much moisture back into the cold side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Pete is banking on the JMA and Canadian Can't say he doesn't try I'm banking on Ullr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Euro Ensemble mean was a tad better. CAA comes after the wave is too far SE for day 5 wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS is going to be suppressed with the D5 wave. There's really not much room for this thing to produce winter precip. That southern stream s/w gets absolutely crushed, killed, destroyed in 24hrs on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm banking on Ullr. Is that on the e-wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That southern stream s/w gets absolutely crushed, killed, destroyed in 24hrs on Thurs. It's laughable how different this run is compared to 18z. There's not even a s/w for the second storm this time and the height field is all beaten down in the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not much hope when you have such strong gradients in the mass fields. No room for amplification. So the only variance in forecasts lies with where the gradient exists, which is basically the difference between cold and dry and warm with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 P.S. This is a terrible skin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS is going to be suppressed with the D5 wave. There's really not much room for this thing to produce winter precip. Lol gives me flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That southern stream s/w gets absolutely crushed, killed, destroyed in 24hrs on Thurs. Not very exciting in any way shape or form. The run looks interesting as it goes along though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Lol gives me flurries Not that far south. This is not going to verify ..most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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