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Southern Plains/Ozark/Arkansas December 4-6 Storm


A-L-E-K

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This is a scenario where you do not need a closed low for a big snow in this region because of the massive high pressure dome dropping south, see my link below from 2/24-25/03, an event that hit S OK and N TX very hard with little more than major overrunning. 1/6/88, 1/27/00 and 2/9/11 are also major events with a high to the north and an open wave, the closed low is generally only needed in events that shortly follow a frontal passage. This event would actually have the upper trough to the west and a surface low possibly forming in SE Texas as well to aid it. I would generally side with the bigger amounts south of I-40 for sure right now.

http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0224.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0225.php

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I basically agree. I will say that the northern cutoff is likely to be quite sharp due to the nature of the trough and the strong confluent zone north of the precip area, and that the width of the snow stripe is likely to be quite narrow. Some zone 30-50 miles wide will get the lion's share in this type of setup, with a narrow strip of sleet and ice on the southern end.

This is a modified cA airmass, so pay close attention to the 2m/925 temps and account for typical model bias wrt arctic fronts.

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This is a scenario where you do not need a closed low for a big snow in this region because of the massive high pressure dome dropping south, see my link below from 2/24-25/03, an event that hit S OK and N TX very hard with little more than major overrunning. 1/6/88, 1/27/00 and 2/9/11 are also major events with a high to the north and an open wave, the closed low is generally only needed in events that shortly follow a frontal passage. This event would actually have the upper trough to the west and a surface low possibly forming in SE Texas as well to aid it. I would generally side with the bigger amounts south of I-40 for sure right now.

http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0224.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0225.php

I don't know the area too well. I guess the closed low isn't needed. 2003 looked much nicer than this though with a weaker gradient on the western side of the storm allowing for a larger area of overrunning, But you probably weren't expecting another 2003, just using it to make a point.

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What are some mets latest thoughts (after the Euro)?

I am not speaking for any exact locations, but I think the NAM is out to lunch and really has little to no chance of occurring. The threat with the anomaly across the ROckies ejecting into the plains is almost identical to what we are dealing with right now in Nebraska through MN except it is shifted farther E. The trend all winter is for these full latitude troughs to tilt more positive with time and for these shallow fronts to dive farther S. The GOM is wide open, but there is going to be little chance the ejecting wave will have any chance for amplification with any type of decent low level cyclogenesis like the NAM suggests. I think the CMC/0Z GFS/UK all have the relative "idea" here.

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Keeping my thoughts localized to North Texas, I am concerned that we may be dealing with a quicker change over to winter precipitation on Monday then what most models are showing. It's all going to depend on how quickly the cold air moves south. I suppose I'm worried that models are underestimating the speed of the 32 degree isotherm line with it's movement southeast. The GFS is dumping quite a bit of precip earlier in the day on Monday. If we get some of that as winter precip, we could be dealing with a problematic Monday afternoon.

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I am not speaking for any exact locations, but I think the NAM is out to lunch and really has little to no chance of occurring. The threat with the anomaly across the ROckies ejecting into the plains is almost identical to what we are dealing with right now in Nebraska through MN except it is shifted farther E. The trend all winter is for these full latitude troughs to tilt more positive with time and for these shallow fronts to dive farther S. The GOM is wide open, but there is going to be little chance the ejecting wave will have any chance for amplification with any type of decent low level cyclogenesis like the NAM suggests. I think the CMC/0Z GFS/UK all have the relative "idea" here.

The NAM is a brutal model at this range, every now and then, perhaps 1 out of every 5-7 storms or so it does score a hit over the GFS at this range but typically the GFS is the better model and I find the CMC is an exceptionally good model in the KS/OK/TX/AR region of the country for winter events. If the Euro agrees with the NAM consistently you can usually feel better about the NAM being correct.

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Not really buying the idea of a harsh northern edge to the precip... yesterday's 18Z was the last sane NAM run IMO.

Compare yesterday's 12Z to today's 18Z, noticing especially the northern edge in central MO:

usaapcpi24sfc084e.gif

usaapcpi24sfc054f.gif

Note: I am NOT saying the past NAM runs are correct... I'm just saying that since and including last night's 00Z, the NAM has had a problem with compacting the precip too much. If there were a sharp temperature gradient at that location, I might be more apt to believe it, but the only such gradient at any pertinent time in the run is way southeast of that area.

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Not really buying the idea of a harsh northern edge to the precip... yesterday's 18Z was the last sane NAM run IMO.

Compare yesterday's 12Z to today's 18Z, noticing especially the northern edge in central MO:

usaapcpi24sfc084e.gif

usaapcpi24sfc054f.gif

Note: I am NOT saying the past NAM runs are correct... I'm just saying that since and including last night's 00Z, the NAM has had a problem with compacting the precip too much. If there were a sharp temperature gradient at that location, I might be more apt to believe it, but the only such gradient at any pertinent time in the run is way southeast of that area.

Okie,

What do you think that all means? I'm a novice so I don't follow exactly what you think this means. Thanks!

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0z ECMWF Text Data...

DFW:

 
MON 06Z 05-DEC   4.4	 3.9    1019	  88	  94    0.21	 567	 551   
MON 12Z 05-DEC   3.3	 1.0    1021	  88	  98    0.15	 565	 548   
MON 18Z 05-DEC   5.1	 0.1    1024	  63	  12    0.01	 566	 546

OKC:

MON 00Z 05-DEC   4.6	 0.5	1022	  62	  75	0.01	 561	 544  
MON 06Z 05-DEC   2.8	-1.7	1024	  64	  96	0.03	 560	 541  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   0.6	-4.4	1026	  62	  98	0.04	 558	 537  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.9	-5.9	1029	  42	  95	0.01	 559	 536

TUL:

MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.5	-4.3	1028	  47	  98	0.02	 559	 537

FSM:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   4.3	 1.6	1021	  95	 100	0.20	 566	 549  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   3.4	 1.6	1020	  92	  96	0.19	 563	 547  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.2	-0.6	1024	  90	  97	0.20	 563	 543  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   2.5	-1.9	1025	  61	  42	0.01	 563	 543

JLN:

MON 12Z 05-DEC   0.5	-2.3	1025	  63	  97	0.01	 559	 539  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   0.2	-4.6	1028	  54	 100	0.03	 558	 536

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Just updated 06Z SmartCast, right now showing areas in Arkansas and Tennessee with some good soaking rains. Potential of seeing 1"+ of rainfall through 17Z, especially in the areas of around Goodwin, PineBluff, AR and Memphis, TN areas. Across the TX region showing Dyess areas with 2.1" of snow accumulations through 17Z, with 11-13Z with the heaviest snowfall potential. Other areas across KS, NE, SD, and ND, with colder temperatures overnight dipping below 0F, especially across the ND region.

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