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Dec 5-6 Round Two? NAM brings "sling-shot" Upper Low into SW and the fun has just begun!

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

A couple FWIW comments (take them tonque-in-cheek):

Winter 2011/12 Rules of the Game:

Rule #1: MBY is ground zero, and sig. systems shall make a bee-line for it..see graphic (below) from prior storm for proper play.

Rule #2: Strong storms shall initially be modelled to miss MBY, only to self-correct (sometimes in the final hrs) to fall within boundaries of said Rule#1.

style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 38%

1024 x 768 (40.81K)

Rule #3: Even events progged to be "short of QPF" shall over-perform (again, sometimes with last-minute surprises so as not to disappoint local snow loving weenies.

style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 15%

750 x 562 (24.65K)

Rule #4: Systems not impacting MBY shall be disorganized, dissappointing, and somewhat LAME wrt their performance for given area(s) of impact.

:cry:

With seriousness folks, my intuition has told me that MBY (SCMI) may well be "ground zero" this yr, i.e. in the crosshairs of the 2 or 3 primary storm tracks for the season. Not saying (nor wishing) that nobody else does well, just that my excitement has never been higher. So far, so good..

:sled::snowing::santa::weenie:

PS - I think this system will verify with a wider field of accumulating snow, similar to the HPC >1" map

Thanks to all the regular posters of maps, graphs, AFD snippets, etc.. for your tireless contributions.

While I'm happy for you, I am extremely frustrated with this pattern. This is the third winter in a row (pretty much since I've lived here) where the main tracks are either Wisconsin or Southeast Michigan with me getting CRAP in terms of snow...either rain or no snow. argh.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro: DET, marginal

MON 18Z 05-DEC   3.1	-0.9	1025	  90	 100	0.12	 562	 542	
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.5	-1.6	1023	  97	 100	0.21	 560	 542	
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.3	-2.3	1021	  95	 100	0.24	 557	 541	
TUE 12Z 06-DEC   1.6	-3.2	1021	  89	  90	0.03	 555	 538

Sorry if this has been asked before, but what is the order of the data? For example, sfc temp, 850 t, sfc p, so on and so forth?

Thanks!

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

With seriousness folks, my intuition has told me that MBY (SCMI) may well be "ground zero" this yr, i.e. in the crosshairs of the 2 or 3 primary storm tracks for the season. Not saying (nor wishing) that nobody else does well, just that my excitement has never been higher. So far, so good..

:sled::snowing::santa::weenie:

your humor aside (if anything, you were a someowhat of a snow repellent last winter, giving SE MI most of the good system snow other than GHD :devilsmiley: ).....I CAN see your area being ground zero for the most snow (as you mentioned the crosshairs)....but UNLIKE the last snow where it was a very narrow band....it will simply be the MOST above normal of a large area of above normal snow centered on the Great Lakes. There are many factors (recent snowy winters, very wet conditions over the Great Lakes, projected continuation of above normal precip through winter) that indicate that it will probably be a very good snow season once again for this region. Naturally nothing is set in stone or totally predictable, but odds are as good as you can realistically get, so for ANYONE to be worrying about the snow season on December 3rd is, well, very foolish imo.

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afterimage

afterimage

Posted
Posted

Indy has a blurb on the events....even a couple of storms with some snow would be nice:

"MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT EXTREME VARIABILITY WITH LITTLE RUN TO

RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY. GENERAL SITUATION WILL BE

CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND

NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WHICH MAY IMPACT THE AREA AT TIMES. EXPECT

AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IF GFS WERE TO

VERIFY...A HEALTHY SNOW EVENT COULD BE IN THE OFFING AT

MIDWEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SITUATION."

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

18z NAM fcst soundings for LAF are tricky...there's a 4-5 thousand foot isothermal layer hovering near 0C from the surface upward.  I don't think there would be enough warmth for substantial melting aloft given decent precip but might as well not overanalyze this run.

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