TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 A couple FWIW comments (take them tonque-in-cheek): Winter 2011/12 Rules of the Game: Rule #1: MBY is ground zero, and sig. systems shall make a bee-line for it..see graphic (below) from prior storm for proper play. Rule #2: Strong storms shall initially be modelled to miss MBY, only to self-correct (sometimes in the final hrs) to fall within boundaries of said Rule#1. style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 38% 1024 x 768 (40.81K) Rule #3: Even events progged to be "short of QPF" shall over-perform (again, sometimes with last-minute surprises so as not to disappoint local snow loving weenies. style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 15% 750 x 562 (24.65K) Rule #4: Systems not impacting MBY shall be disorganized, dissappointing, and somewhat LAME wrt their performance for given area(s) of impact. With seriousness folks, my intuition has told me that MBY (SCMI) may well be "ground zero" this yr, i.e. in the crosshairs of the 2 or 3 primary storm tracks for the season. Not saying (nor wishing) that nobody else does well, just that my excitement has never been higher. So far, so good.. PS - I think this system will verify with a wider field of accumulating snow, similar to the HPC >1" map Thanks to all the regular posters of maps, graphs, AFD snippets, etc.. for your tireless contributions. While I'm happy for you, I am extremely frustrated with this pattern. This is the third winter in a row (pretty much since I've lived here) where the main tracks are either Wisconsin or Southeast Michigan with me getting CRAP in terms of snow...either rain or no snow. argh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z Euro looks like it's taking a step backwards from last night. Mainly light precip where it's cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12Z Euro: DET, marginal MON 18Z 05-DEC 3.1 -0.9 1025 90 100 0.12 562 542 TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.5 -1.6 1023 97 100 0.21 560 542 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 1.3 -2.3 1021 95 100 0.24 557 541 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 1.6 -3.2 1021 89 90 0.03 555 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ECMWF is a bit colder... nice hit from FWA to DET to YYZ... back towards LAF looks sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Alrighty wave 2 most likely looks like a fail for here...Oh well.. On to wave 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z Euro verbatim would be a narrow band of 2-4" type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ECMWF is a bit colder... nice hit from FWA to DET to YYZ... back towards LAF looks sketchy. Don't think it's going to support the GFS regarding the 96-120 wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Don't think it's going to support the GFS regarding the 96-120 wave. Doesn't even come close... has the energy OTS by 120. Pick one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Might as well go for the record late snowfall (even though MKE has technically had a measurable snow). It's much less stressful right now for a warminista, even with it being cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Doesn't even come close... has the energy OTS by 120. Pick one or the other. No intra or inter model support. It's an outlier amongst its own ensembles. If I were making a med-range forecast right now, I'd deposit the 12z/3 run of the GFS in the garbage. Much as I hate to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12Z Euro: DET, marginal MON 18Z 05-DEC 3.1 -0.9 1025 90 100 0.12 562 542 TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.5 -1.6 1023 97 100 0.21 560 542 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 1.3 -2.3 1021 95 100 0.24 557 541 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 1.6 -3.2 1021 89 90 0.03 555 538 Sorry if this has been asked before, but what is the order of the data? For example, sfc temp, 850 t, sfc p, so on and so forth? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Sorry if this has been asked before, but what is the order of the data? For example, sfc temp, 850 t, sfc p, so on and so forth? Thanks! 2m temp, 850mb temp, sfc prs, sfc rhu, 700mb rhu, 6hr QPF, 500mb hgt, 1000-500 thk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Hmmm...just saw the 12z UKIE beyond 72. Probably the closest of the global models to the GFS for wave 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Hmmm...just saw the 12z UKIE beyond 72. Probably the closest of the global models to the GFS for wave 3. Yeah, and as you probably noticed, the first wave looks pathetic. It's either one or the other at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 With seriousness folks, my intuition has told me that MBY (SCMI) may well be "ground zero" this yr, i.e. in the crosshairs of the 2 or 3 primary storm tracks for the season. Not saying (nor wishing) that nobody else does well, just that my excitement has never been higher. So far, so good.. your humor aside (if anything, you were a someowhat of a snow repellent last winter, giving SE MI most of the good system snow other than GHD ).....I CAN see your area being ground zero for the most snow (as you mentioned the crosshairs)....but UNLIKE the last snow where it was a very narrow band....it will simply be the MOST above normal of a large area of above normal snow centered on the Great Lakes. There are many factors (recent snowy winters, very wet conditions over the Great Lakes, projected continuation of above normal precip through winter) that indicate that it will probably be a very good snow season once again for this region. Naturally nothing is set in stone or totally predictable, but odds are as good as you can realistically get, so for ANYONE to be worrying about the snow season on December 3rd is, well, very foolish imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah, and as you probably noticed, the first wave looks pathetic. It's either one or the other at this point. We'll see how it pans out. I'd be wary of the big 3rd wave just because of its novelty. Some consistency from the GFS or if the EURO jumps on board and we'll be cooking with oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Indy has a blurb on the events....even a couple of storms with some snow would be nice: "MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT EXTREME VARIABILITY WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY. GENERAL SITUATION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WHICH MAY IMPACT THE AREA AT TIMES. EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IF GFS WERE TO VERIFY...A HEALTHY SNOW EVENT COULD BE IN THE OFFING AT MIDWEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SITUATION." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Easy come, easy go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 NAM coming in just a tad colder... possibly further east a bit too. LAF is going to love the results of this run from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z NAM looks like it's heading back toward a narrow band of sig snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Easy come, easy go... That's partially due to timing, is it not? Since the snow really is falling between about Monday Afternoon (18z Mon.) to 12z Tuesday... while that map is for Monday evening until Tuesday Evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z NAM fcst soundings for LAF are tricky...there's a 4-5 thousand foot isothermal layer hovering near 0C from the surface upward. I don't think there would be enough warmth for substantial melting aloft given decent precip but might as well not overanalyze this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Definitely colder for Monday's wave on the 18z NAM. Per H5, does not look like it would pull a GFS with the midweek wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yanked this from C/W since the wxcaster maps aren't out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yanked this from C/W since the wxcaster maps aren't out yet That could be a heartbreaker for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yanked this from C/W since the wxcaster maps aren't out yet LOL if that really happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That could be a heartbreaker for me... I'd almost rather have the cutoff setup again. Both of these present their own challenges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL if that really happens... I will start to think that we are destined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Bit of rain to start, but 18z NAM BUFKIT puts down 6.4" of snow at YYZ. Very, very narrow band though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yanked this from C/W since the wxcaster maps aren't out yet About 10 miles south/east of that band... if that happens I might turn into Ji and cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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