Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL.. Well, looks like someone's optimism is higher this year than last.. Not punting yet, but if it's anything like previous years you can't but help to notice what the NW trend usually means.. NW trend is overrated. I mean if we get a more wound up system than is currently indicated, then sure it probably moves farther northwest. Not sure if that's in the cards with this one. It's marginal (temperature-wise) as it is for us right now. But we'll wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 lol, I just saw what the 0z NAM did to STL. Where's Friv? Oh that's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 NW trend is overrated. I mean if we get a more wound up system than is currently indicated, then sure it probably moves farther northwest. Not sure if that's in the cards with this one. It's marginal (temperature-wise) as it is for us right now. But we'll wait and watch. Since the EURO and GFS have undergone their upgrades, I find it's seldom been a factor. "NW trend" had a nice (and sometimes not so nice) run there from 2000-01 to 2007-08 I'd say, with some notable exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 If this storm and its narrow band of snow ends up dumping on the EXACT same area as Nov 29/30, I will be quite mad lol. The latest NAM verbatum would be just like the Nov 29/30 storm, soaking rain ending as snow. That said, this will be changing every 6 hours, so no sweat yet. Also let this be a lesson (I say this every year but it never works ). Two days ago, it was looking all quiet with nothing to track, now look at it. So when I hear gripes about the quiet look to the 16-day GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm not liking my chances with the first wave on Monday. Models seem to be slowing the front down the last 24-36 hours, which inhibits sufficiently cold air from seeping in. We'll have to keep our eye on that midweek wave. It could be a player assuming the ul trough can at some point amplify, rather than stay positively tilted and just sheepishly drift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 One thing is for sure..whoever gets the snow will be in for a plastering. Wet and heavy. Then the deep freeze to follow will make it unwanted in a matte of days. Still loving the LAF / DTW area. Get your boots ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 One thing is for sure..whoever gets the snow will be in for a plastering. Wet and heavy. Then the deep freeze to follow will make it unwanted in a matte of days. Still loving the LAF / DTW area. Get your boots ready. That would be the absolute perfect setup imo (it has to hit DTW of course!). Although I dont know if the snow on trees would survive the mild temps Tuesday ahead of cold. A wet snow that plasters everything and then freezes in place makes for a gorgeous scene (see Dec 12, 2010). To add some powder afterward is bonus perfect of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 At first glance, 12z NAM looks more wet than white here. Verbatim, looks like about a 30 mile wide area of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 At first glance, 12z NAM looks more wet than white here. Verbatim, looks like about a 30 mile wide area of snow. Another hyper gradient storm...woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Another hyper gradient storm...woohoo Heartbreak city for those outside the band. Wash, rinse, repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 could be some snow in ottawa with this one, but the boundary is going to be very tight and lie either just SE of the city, or possibly trend back NW as it has all fall.....would be nice to break that pattern. meanwhile odds are high that just on the other side of the boundary in montreal, should be predominantly rain ending as some snow possible. overall, i am leaning towards the less impressive models. positive tilt and a crushing high makes me side more with the GFS, just a hunch, but i think this ends up with lower amounts but with the cold push in and behind, could make for a higher than normal impact especially for places that may transition from rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The 0z Euro Ens. is cooler than the OP. And again this applies with the GEFS compared to the OP. The trough with the mid week wave is amplified with enough cold air digging in. Perhaps the models are underestimating the trough/cold air aloft. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z RGEM ptype. Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So what needs to happen to get a more negtively tilted storm? I see the current storm is racing east (positively tilted) and this upcoming one looks to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So what needs to happen to get a more negtively tilted storm? I see the current storm is racing east (positively tilted) and this upcoming one looks to do the same. Given our juxtaposition to everything, we definitely want this one to remain positively titled. If anything we would want everything to ideally shift a hair east as it all stands now. Even then as of now, if you're along and NW of a MTC-ARB-ADG line in Michigan then you're all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Midweek wave forming in the TN valley at 96 on the GFS. H5 trough going neutral at that point, but based on the placement of things, I suspect it's still currently a miss to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 pretty close though. Trough is negative by 105. Lack of full phase means we're encountering some lack of cold air problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Enough link-up with the polar jet by 114. Nice E OV hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS finally does something with the second part of the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 We will need another thread if we get better model agreement but not yet, 12z GFS comes in stronger with this next wave and goes neg tilt and the sfc low gets close to bombing out once it gets to PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 pretty close though. Trough is negative by 105. Lack of full phase means we're encountering some lack of cold air problems. The 12z GFS underestimates the trough to the West, though given that its the first run to depict such a large secondary you'd expect a few marginal errors. Lets see if the 12z Euro has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL at the GFS trolling everyone and forcing a possible 3rd thread having said that, i thought the timing of the euro was much slower than the GFS and depicted a pseudo effort. the GEM also had that meandering storm. GFS is plausible i suppose, guess we have to wait for the rest of the 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The most likely reason the system at 102hr is more amped is because the wave at 54hr is less amped. Note on the 00z GFS run when the Monday/Tuesday system came in stronger the system at 108-120hr didn't get its act together until it was east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Plenty of precipitation for the next five days, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The 0z Euro Ens. is cooler than the OP. And again this applies with the GEFS compared to the OP. The trough with the mid week wave is amplified with enough cold air digging in. Perhaps the models are underestimating the trough/cold air aloft. Lets see. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 If this storm and its narrow band of snow ends up dumping on the EXACT same area as Nov 29/30, I will be quite mad lol. The latest NAM verbatum would be just like the Nov 29/30 storm, soaking rain ending as snow. That said, this will be changing every 6 hours, so no sweat yet. Also let this be a lesson (I say this every year but it never works ). Two days ago, it was looking all quiet with nothing to track, now look at it. So when I hear gripes about the quiet look to the 16-day GFS.... A couple FWIW comments (take them tonque-in-cheek): Winter 2011/12 Rules of the Game: Rule #1: MBY is ground zero, and sig. systems shall make a bee-line for it..see graphic (below) from prior storm for proper play. Rule #2: Strong storms shall initially be modelled to miss MBY, only to self-correct (sometimes in the final hrs) to fall within boundaries of said Rule#1. style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 38% 1024 x 768 (40.81K) Rule #3: Even events progged to be "short of QPF" shall over-perform (again, sometimes with last-minute surprises so as not to disappoint local snow loving weenies. style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 15% 750 x 562 (24.65K) Rule #4: Systems not impacting MBY shall be disorganized, dissappointing, and somewhat LAME wrt their performance for given area(s) of impact. With seriousness folks, my intuition has told me that MBY (SCMI) may well be "ground zero" this yr, i.e. in the crosshairs of the 2 or 3 primary storm tracks for the season. Not saying (nor wishing) that nobody else does well, just that my excitement has never been higher. So far, so good.. PS - I think this system will verify with a wider field of accumulating snow, similar to the HPC >1" map Thanks to all the regular posters of maps, graphs, AFD snippets, etc.. for your tireless contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z GGEM and UKMET are still pretty meh with this event, but continue to show good potential with the third wave...As they showed on their 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Roguewaves I like your "Rules of the Game"! Path of this system will boil down to where the baroclinic zone sets up after this first storm goes by. Looks like this first wave is going one of the furthest NW tracks previously forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z GGEM and UKMET are still pretty meh with this event, but continue to show good potential with the third wave...As they showed on their 0z runs. Last night's NAM was pretty similar to the Euro so it will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Oh it'll be more than just sweating.. It is pretty obvious that the NW trend is rearing it's ugly head. Once the NW trend commences it's hard to stop! Negatively tilted waves/rapidly deepening cyclones scare me much more in terms of the northwest trend, but obviously it can happen with other setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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