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Dec 5-6 Round Two? NAM brings "sling-shot" Upper Low into SW and the fun has just begun!

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

LOL.. Well, looks like someone's optimism is higher this year than last..

Not punting yet, but if it's anything like previous years you can't but help to notice what the NW trend usually means..

:maprain:

NW trend is overrated. I mean if we get a more wound up system than is currently indicated, then sure it probably moves farther northwest. Not sure if that's in the cards with this one. It's marginal (temperature-wise) as it is for us right now. But we'll wait and watch.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

NW trend is overrated. I mean if we get a more wound up system than is currently indicated, then sure it probably moves farther northwest. Not sure if that's in the cards with this one. It's marginal (temperature-wise) as it is for us right now. But we'll wait and watch.

Since the EURO and GFS have undergone their upgrades, I find it's seldom been a factor. "NW trend" had a nice (and sometimes not so nice) run there from 2000-01 to 2007-08 I'd say, with some notable exceptions.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

If this storm and its narrow band of snow ends up dumping on the EXACT same area as Nov 29/30, I will be quite mad lol. The latest NAM verbatum would be just like the Nov 29/30 storm, soaking rain ending as snow. That said, this will be changing every 6 hours, so no sweat yet.

Also let this be a lesson (I say this every year but it never works :)). Two days ago, it was looking all quiet with nothing to track, now look at it. So when I hear gripes about the quiet look to the 16-day GFS.... :lol:

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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I'm not liking my chances with the first wave on Monday. Models seem to be slowing the front down the last 24-36 hours, which inhibits sufficiently cold air from seeping in. We'll have to keep our eye on that midweek wave. It could be a player assuming the ul trough can at some point amplify, rather than stay positively tilted and just sheepishly drift east

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

One thing is for sure..whoever gets the snow will be in for a plastering. Wet and heavy. Then the deep freeze to follow will make it unwanted in a matte of days. Still loving the LAF / DTW area. Get your boots ready.

That would be the absolute perfect setup imo (it has to hit DTW of course!). Although I dont know if the snow on trees would survive the mild temps Tuesday ahead of cold. A wet snow that plasters everything and then freezes in place makes for a gorgeous scene (see Dec 12, 2010). To add some powder afterward is bonus perfect of course :)

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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Posted

could be some snow in ottawa with this one, but the boundary is going to be very tight and lie either just SE of the city, or possibly trend back NW as it has all fall.....would be nice to break that pattern. meanwhile odds are high that just on the other side of the boundary in montreal, should be predominantly rain ending as some snow possible.

overall, i am leaning towards the less impressive models. positive tilt and a crushing high makes me side more with the GFS, just a hunch, but i think this ends up with lower amounts but with the cold push in and behind, could make for a higher than normal impact especially for places that may transition from rain to snow.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

So what needs to happen to get a more negtively tilted storm? I see the current storm is racing east (positively tilted) and this upcoming one looks to do the same.

Given our juxtaposition to everything, we definitely want this one to remain positively titled.

If anything we would want everything to ideally shift a hair east as it all stands now.

Even then as of now, if you're along and NW of a MTC-ARB-ADG line in Michigan then you're all snow.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

pretty close though. Trough is negative by 105. Lack of full phase means we're encountering some lack of cold air problems.

The 12z GFS underestimates the trough to the West, though given that its the first run to depict such a large secondary you'd expect a few marginal errors.

Lets see if the 12z Euro has it.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted

If this storm and its narrow band of snow ends up dumping on the EXACT same area as Nov 29/30, I will be quite mad lol. The latest NAM verbatum would be just like the Nov 29/30 storm, soaking rain ending as snow. That said, this will be changing every 6 hours, so no sweat yet.

Also let this be a lesson (I say this every year but it never works :)). Two days ago, it was looking all quiet with nothing to track, now look at it. So when I hear gripes about the quiet look to the 16-day GFS.... :lol:

A couple FWIW comments (take them tonque-in-cheek):

Winter 2011/12 Rules of the Game:

Rule #1: MBY is ground zero, and sig. systems shall make a bee-line for it..see graphic (below) from prior storm for proper play.

post-26117-1322925835.gif

Rule #2: Strong storms shall initially be modelled to miss MBY, only to self-correct (sometimes in the final hrs) to fall within boundaries of said Rule#1.

style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 38% post-26117-1322925855_thumb.jpg

1024 x 768 (40.81K)

Rule #3: Even events progged to be "short of QPF" shall over-perform (again, sometimes with last-minute surprises so as not to disappoint local snow loving weenies.

style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced 15% post-26117-1322925866_thumb.jpg

750 x 562 (24.65K)

Rule #4: Systems not impacting MBY shall be disorganized, dissappointing, and somewhat LAME wrt their performance for given area(s) of impact.

:cry:

With seriousness folks, my intuition has told me that MBY (SCMI) may well be "ground zero" this yr, i.e. in the crosshairs of the 2 or 3 primary storm tracks for the season. Not saying (nor wishing) that nobody else does well, just that my excitement has never been higher. So far, so good..

:sled::snowing::santa::weenie:

PS - I think this system will verify with a wider field of accumulating snow, similar to the HPC >1" map

Thanks to all the regular posters of maps, graphs, AFD snippets, etc.. for your tireless contributions.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Roguewaves I like your "Rules of the Game"!

Path of this system will boil down to where the baroclinic zone sets up after this first storm goes by. Looks like this first wave is going one of the furthest NW tracks previously forecast.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Oh it'll be more than just sweating.. It is pretty obvious that the NW trend is rearing it's ugly head.   Once the NW trend commences it's hard to stop!

Negatively tilted waves/rapidly deepening cyclones scare me much more in terms of the northwest trend, but obviously it can happen with other setups.

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