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Dec 5-6 Round Two? NAM brings "sling-shot" Upper Low into SW and the fun has just begun!

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Hoosier, you didn't catch my drift.

My post was a nice way of saying what's below is a clusterf*ck... Can we just go back to the usual month/date/event format?

post-147-0-63060200-1322894130.jpg

lol @ file name.

Nice to see the Euro is agreeing on a more amped evolution early next week. Starting to look like it could be a decent event from Joplin to LAF, to DTW.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Is anyone else having trouble getting the wundermaps to load the Euro?

I hate to ask an imby question but.....I'm going to. Does anyone have the QPF for VPZ?

Yeah they look like they are coming in slow, and I was wondering how much QPF ended up being snow for DTW as it would be close.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

predominantly SN I presume?

Thanks.

MON 18Z 05-DEC   3.9	-1.2	1024	  78	  92	0.01	 561	 542  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   0.9	-2.0	1021	  95	 100	0.25	 558	 541  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   0.4	-3.4	1018	  91	 100	0.29	 553	 539  
TUE 12Z 06-DEC   0.4	-5.3	1020	  86	  87	0.06	 551	 535  
TUE 18Z 06-DEC   1.6	-6.9	1022	  79	  88	0.02	 547	 530  
WED 00Z 07-DEC  -0.7	-8.5	1023	  83	  64	0.01	 547	 529

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PatrickSumner

PatrickSumner

Posted
Posted

It's hard not getting discouraged here in Marion, Indiana when it looks as if the heaviest band will set up in northwest Indiana instead of northeast Indiana. Temperatures will be too marginal it seems. I wonder what the ice threat with this thing is. Overrunning precipitation events can make for interesting an interesting icing situation.

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BeastFromTheEast

BeastFromTheEast

Posted
Posted

Might need to keep an eye out for some LE as well for NE IL.. With the way winds are set up there could be some enhancement during the precip shield and even some pure LE after the storm heads out.. LOT touches on it briefly in their disco as well..

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...MVFR POSSIBLE.

Hr 84 on the Nam shows the LE signal and the GFS has it too to some extent...post-1662-0-27993200-1322902963.gif

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

DTX's AFD

DEFINED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN WITH THE MEAN SOUTHWEST

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...PROVIDING THE

FOCUS FOR THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK

OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. MODELS NOW SHOWING A STRONG CONSENSUS

ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...

BUT STILL CARRY SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN DEFINING THE LOW

LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEGREE OF ASCENT THAT

WILL EXIST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BOTH MONDAY AND

TUESDAY. SETUP WOULD FAVOR A WINDOW FOR STRONGER FGEN TO EVOLVE IN

THE PRESENCE OF GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT OVER NORTHWEST OH/SOUTHEAST

MI SOMETIME LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIPPLES

NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL

COMMENCE ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM

SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. FREEZING LEVELS APPEAR ELEVATED

ENOUGH WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCHING UPWARD THROUGH THE

MIDDLE/UPPER 30S TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...

POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT THE ONSET. PTYPE TRANSITIONS TOWARD

ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLUMN NOCTURNALLY/

DYNAMICALLY COOLS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY

NIGHT AS A WING OF DEEPER FORCING WORKS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT

CARRYING AT LEAST 3 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY.

GRR's AFD

ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AREAS

SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR ON MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP/POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE

TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND A WAVE HEADS NORTHEAST ALONG THE

BAROCLINC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS IS A TRACK SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT... BUT IT/S AN

OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE. STILL... THE MID LEVEL FGEN

LOOKS QUITE STRONG AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPR LVL JET COUPLING.

MODEL QPFS HAVE TRENDED NORTH AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE

SE CWFA. PCPN TYPE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE UNLESS

THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH. WENT WITH ALL SNOW ATTM.

IWX's AFD

FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE MONDAY

NIGHT/TUESDAY PERIOD WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG MEDIUM

RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REGARDING PHASING ISSUES WITH

NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM. 00Z GFS REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED AND

PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE 500 HPA HEIGHT MINIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN

ILLINOIS BY 06Z WED...WHILE THE 00Z GEM REPRESENTS THE OTHER EXTREME

WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM NOT PHASING WITH

A MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER SOUTHWEST US CUT OFF UPPER LOW. HAVE

OPTED TO FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...MORE INLINE WITH

THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO HAS EXHIBITED SOME DECENT RUN TO RUN

CONTINUITY OVER PAST FEW RUNS. CONCERN WITH THIS SLOWER BLENDED

SOLUTION WOULD BE FOR ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP

AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA

MONDAY NIGHT. MELTING SNOW PACK WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AGGRAVATION

OF ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS AND EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER THE

POSSIBILITY OF FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTSIDE OF FLOOD CONCERNS...EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO A SWATH OF

ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGESTING A

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LIQUID PRECIP TYPE

SHOULD HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST

PORTIONS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR BY

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS IS

LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF

BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EVOLUTION OF THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST US WAVE WILL

IMPACT PRECIP TYPE/PLACEMENT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO

TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO VACATE

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Central Illinois

Central Illinois

Posted
Posted

looks like ILX is starting to get on board with the idea of accumulating snowfall

Unseasonably mild temperatures will be on tap today and tonight as highs reach well into the 50s, with lows mostly in the 40s. Otherwise, an unsettled weather pattern will dominate Illinois through early next week. Rain will increase today and become widespread tonight as a cold front pushes through the Midwest. Precipitation will then become spotty on Sunday before another upswing Sunday night through Monday night.

post-3774-0-71858500-1322904159.png

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Central Illinois

Central Illinois

Posted
Posted
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

306 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ISSUED 250 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2011

SEASON`S FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OVER

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

MODELS INDICATE SOME SIGNIFICANT ISENT LIFT STARTING UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER

WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TO SPREAD BACK

NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS THE SOUTH...AND ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH

AND WEST ON MONDAY. NAM-WRF THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN SNOW

MIXTURE INITIALLY...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE COOLING ENOUGH DURING THE

DAY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW. THE FACT THAT THIS CHANGE

OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SOIL TEMPS...AT

LEAST INITIALLY WILL BE WARM...SHOULD OFFSET ANY SIG ACCUMULATIONS

UNTIL SUNSET. IF THE STRONGER LIFT AND PRECIP MOVES IN FASTER IN

THE MORNING...THAT MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTN

AND THRU MONDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND 850

MB LOWS...OUR CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4

INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A BAND EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM

SHELBYVILLE ENE TO PARIS. ANY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SFC WAVE AND

BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL HAVE

A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL FALL.

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LizardMafia

LizardMafia

Posted
Posted

I'd bet almost anything that I'm going to wake up to a post by Tim about punting this event. Although there is probably reason for us to start sweating.

Oh it'll be more than just sweating.. It is pretty obvious that the NW trend is rearing it's ugly head. Once the NW trend commences it's hard to stop!

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I'd bet almost anything that I'm going to wake up to a post by Tim about punting this event. Although there is probably reason for us to start sweating.

Too early. ;) Plus I've payed little attention to this, as I'm trying a new fangled approach of waiting until we get inside 48 hours to start sweating the finer details. :D

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Oh it'll be more than just sweating.. It is pretty obvious that the NW trend is rearing it's ugly head. Once the NW trend commences it's hard to stop!

In the central thread on this event, Baro makes a nice case as to why the NAM is wrong and we'll continue to see the seasonal trend of troughs ejecting and becoming more positively tilted as they head east. I'm pretty close to writing this one off up here in favor of a razor thin stripe of snow from Stl to Laf to DTW.

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