Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Congrats LAF. lol, if I see one flake from this debacle I'll consider it a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So true, so true. As Ive said...keep in mind, this is WITH the fact weve gotten so much snow the last how many years. (well actually, 3 out of the last 4 years have seen snow on the order of 180% of normal, the year in between was right near climo, or as many called it at the time, "worst winter ever" ). A truly craptastic winter, this board would self destruct lol. Although this isnt really a bust. Its a nam fantasy not come true, as usual It is rather frustrating though when storms 60-72 hours out are still considered nothing more than fantasy. Hell, even a 30+ year veteran NWS met got suckered on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 More straw grasping, but the 12z NAM brings more moisture further NW this evening as well (when temperature profiles are favorable) from 00z to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is rather frustrating though when storms 60-72 hours out are still considered nothing more than fantasy. Hell, even a 30+ year veteran NWS met got suckered on this one. Oh I agree. Its a shame. And its almost unimaginable that in THIS day and age of technology, the models are as bad as they are. i will never forget a book I read years ago written in the 1950s when the first weather computers were in infancy. It said that by the 1980s weather models would be able to predict precisely (im paraphrasing the example they gave) "snow beginning at 11:02 am, ending at 5:17pm, accumulating 3.4 inches". LOL I still say stick to the farmers almanac. Now, while I wouldnt want to know EXACTLY what happens (take some of the fun out) it would be nice to not have NO idea with the models changing constantly. I will say, though, that if theres one thing it has taught me over the years, just like you would look at a nice long range forecast cautiously, do NOT look at a bad long range forecast and be too upset. It WILL change a hundred times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oh I agree. Its a shame. And its almost unimaginable that in THIS day and age of technology, the models are as bad as they are. i will never forget a book I read years ago written in the 1950s when the first weather computers were in infancy. It said that by the 1980s weather models would be able to predict precisely (im paraphrasing the example they gave) "snow beginning at 11:02 am, ending at 5:17pm, accumulating 3.4 inches". LOL I still say stick to the farmers almanac. Now, while I wouldnt want to know EXACTLY what happens (take some of the fun out) it would be nice to not have NO idea with the models changing constantly. I will say, though, that if theres one thing it has taught me over the years, just like you would look at a nice long range forecast cautiously, do NOT look at a bad long range forecast and be too upset. It WILL change a hundred times. :rollseyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would turn that sucker on for 3 days straight! BTW: rain looks to be done by 10am and yet DTX says another "surge" of moisture by late morning through the afternoon. Good forecasting! Just out of curiosity, what did you see that is making you think that there won't be another surge of moisture? I think the WV loop is pretty convincing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Just out of curiosity, what did you see that is making you think that there won't be another surge of moisture? I think the WV loop is pretty convincing. I was observing the radar... i guess i was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Satellite/radar data combined with HRRR progs definitely support a band of 1-3" (snow) across northeast Indiana and southeast Lower Michigan for this evening. Pretty healthy looking wave on WV. Hey, better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oh I agree. Its a shame. And its almost unimaginable that in THIS day and age of technology, the models are as bad as they are. i will never forget a book I read years ago written in the 1950s when the first weather computers were in infancy. It said that by the 1980s weather models would be able to predict precisely (im paraphrasing the example they gave) "snow beginning at 11:02 am, ending at 5:17pm, accumulating 3.4 inches". LOL I still say stick to the farmers almanac. Now, while I wouldnt want to know EXACTLY what happens (take some of the fun out) it would be nice to not have NO idea with the models changing constantly. I will say, though, that if theres one thing it has taught me over the years, just like you would look at a nice long range forecast cautiously, do NOT look at a bad long range forecast and be too upset. It WILL change a hundred times. Wouldn't really need meteorologists if it was that easy to predict. Anyways folks why are we complaining so much? It's December 5th! Meteorological winter just started 4 days ago and we only average 38" of snow in Toledo anyways. Does everybody expect we have 10" of snow already or something? Take it easy folks we've got a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oh I agree. Its a shame. And its almost unimaginable that in THIS day and age of technology, the models are as bad as they are. i will never forget a book I read years ago written in the 1950s when the first weather computers were in infancy. It said that by the 1980s weather models would be able to predict precisely (im paraphrasing the example they gave) "snow beginning at 11:02 am, ending at 5:17pm, accumulating 3.4 inches". LOL I still say stick to the farmers almanac. Now, while I wouldnt want to know EXACTLY what happens (take some of the fun out) it would be nice to not have NO idea with the models changing constantly. I will say, though, that if theres one thing it has taught me over the years, just like you would look at a nice long range forecast cautiously, do NOT look at a bad long range forecast and be too upset. It WILL change a hundred times. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wouldn't really need meteorologists if it was that easy to predict. Anyways folks why are we complaining so much? It's December 5th! Meteorological winter just started 4 days ago and we only average 38" of snow in Toledo anyways. Does everybody expect we have 10" of snow already or something? Take it easy folks we've got a long way to go Well said. I think a lot of us were getting used to early season snows the past 4 winters. Now we have to wait & with patience. Woke up to large wet snowflakes here This morning from the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 FWIW (and if the last 20 runs of the nam are any indication, then not much): 12z NAM Snow totals: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 FWIW (and if the last 20 runs of the nam are any indication, then not much): 12z NAM Snow totals: http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DTX That'd be awesome if that comes true. 2-3" of snow here. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That'd be awesome if that comes true. 2-3" of snow here. Not too shabby I think the WV looks pretty solid. After spending the better part of the last 2-3 days underestimating this wave, maybe the models will be playing catch up right up until the end and we'll end up overachieving. Maybe. "Maybe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow, latest HRRR (13z) looks great for Detroit and Toledo. Widespread 3-4" with a very narrow 4-6" band. EDIT: This is only through the end of the run BTW. A few more 4-6" splotches were showing up and it was still snowing on the far east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This is insane...waking up to a forecast of no measurable snow and now possibly this! Even NAM/GFS on board with about 2". The old saying "cant trust the models past 72 hours" would have to be revised to "past 6 hours" for this particular situation . IF it happens that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 HRRR shows 4-5" for YYZ as well. Will be interesting to see how this all pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z RGEM doesn't look too bad for N IN, NW OH, SE MI on east into southern ON. Flips us over to snow here at the tail end this evening. For the time being, temp/dew going in the wrong direction...up to 39/37. Heavy drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z RGEM doesn't look too bad for N IN, NW OH, SE MI on east into southern ON. Flips us over to snow here at the tail end this evening. For the time being, temp/dew going in the wrong direction...up to 39/37. Heavy drizzle. I think we have a good chance of changing over to snow but probably not before 6 PM. Definitely looking like there could be a band of respectable amounts to the east/northeast. I think we'll be lucky to walk away with a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think we have a good chance of changing over to snow but probably not before 6 PM. Definitely looking like there could be a band of respectable amounts to the east/northeast. I think we'll be lucky to walk away with a coating. Just some flakes and I'll consider it a victory for here. Agreed that north and east of us stand a good chance of seeing some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Just seen Flurries. Currently 35 degrees and dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Snowing in Sterling Heights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Snowing in Sterling Heights! Temps falling at a good clip that "second surge" of Moisture be line right toward us. And earlier I said the surge would miss us. Bad call by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Area temps: Lake Orion 35.2 Shelby Township 36.1 Auburn Hills 35.8 Oxford 34.8 Mt Clemens 34.9 Sterling Heights 36.2 Rochester 36.0 Berkeley 38.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Area temps: Lake Orion 35.2 Shelby Township 36.1 Auburn Hills 35.8 Oxford 34.8 Mt Clemens 34.9 Sterling Heights 36.2 Rochester 36.0 Berkeley 38.0 Pure snow here in Sterling Heights, no mix..Moisture moving in also..good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 RUC sure shows a nice slug of precip moving into southeast Michigan later today. Certainly looks like some decent snow amounts are likely somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 RUC sure shows a nice slug of precip moving into southeast Michigan later today. Certainly looks like some decent snow amounts are likely somewhere in there. Oh really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z ECMWF... LAF: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 2.7 -1.8 1023 96 95 0.18 560 541 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 1.2 -2.4 1024 87 91 0.07 559 540 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 0.1 -3.9 1024 73 98 0.00 556 537 TUE 18Z 06-DEC 0.4 -4.5 1024 64 100 0.01 553 534 WED 00Z 07-DEC 0.9 -6.5 1023 67 94 0.01 549 531 IND: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 2.3 0.0 1022 98 99 0.47 562 544 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 1.5 0.1 1022 92 81 0.11 562 544 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 1.0 -1.6 1023 85 90 0.00 560 542 TUE 18Z 06-DEC 1.0 -2.1 1023 76 79 0.01 557 539 WED 00Z 07-DEC 0.0 -4.3 1023 77 51 0.02 553 535 OKK: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.6 -1.0 1023 99 97 0.29 560 541 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 0.8 -1.5 1023 90 89 0.14 560 541 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 0.2 -2.6 1024 79 97 0.00 558 539 TUE 18Z 06-DEC -0.2 -4.0 1023 71 98 0.01 554 535 WED 00Z 07-DEC -0.2 -5.8 1023 73 88 0.02 550 532 FWA: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.4 -0.9 1023 98 97 0.28 560 541 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 0.5 -1.4 1023 89 90 0.21 560 541 TUE 12Z 06-DEC -0.3 -2.7 1024 81 94 0.00 558 539 TUE 18Z 06-DEC 0.1 -3.6 1023 76 99 0.01 554 536 WED 00Z 07-DEC 0.2 -5.6 1022 81 100 0.03 549 532 WED 06Z 07-DEC -1.4 -6.2 1022 74 63 0.01 547 529 BTL: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 2.2 -4.2 1025 67 75 0.01 557 537 TUE 06Z 06-DEC -0.2 -3.7 1025 69 63 0.02 556 536 ADG: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.3 -1.3 1024 94 98 0.17 559 540 TUE 06Z 06-DEC -0.4 -1.8 1023 86 98 0.22 558 540 TDZ: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.8 -0.3 1023 99 100 0.32 561 542 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 0.9 -1.3 1022 96 99 0.40 560 542 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 1.0 -1.8 1022 89 87 0.01 559 541 DTW: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.6 -1.3 1024 93 98 0.15 559 540 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 0.6 -1.9 1023 88 99 0.25 558 540 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 0.6 -2.6 1023 85 94 0.01 557 538 PTK: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.4 -2.7 1025 81 95 0.05 558 539 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 0.2 -2.8 1023 81 97 0.12 557 538 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 0.2 -3.4 1024 82 80 0.01 555 536 YKF: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 1.9 -0.6 1024 98 99 0.15 560 541 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 0.7 -1.5 1022 92 99 0.33 557 540 TUE 12Z 06-DEC -0.9 -1.9 1022 86 91 0.06 557 539 YYZ: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 3.4 -0.1 1024 92 98 0.16 561 542 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 1.3 -1.6 1022 96 98 0.36 558 540 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 0.8 -1.7 1022 85 89 0.11 557 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z ECMWF... LAF: TUE 00Z 06-DEC 2.7 -1.8 1023 96 95 0.18 560 541 TUE 06Z 06-DEC 1.2 -2.4 1024 87 91 0.07 559 540 TUE 12Z 06-DEC 0.1 -3.9 1024 73 98 0.00 556 537 TUE 18Z 06-DEC 0.4 -4.5 1024 64 100 0.01 553 534 WED 00Z 07-DEC 0.9 -6.5 1023 67 94 0.01 549 531 DAB. Upon further inspection....0.0". Thanks Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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