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Dec 5-6 Round Two? NAM brings "sling-shot" Upper Low into SW and the fun has just begun!

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

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It's cold enough to snow, but no snow. Kind of a waste of cold air - but it will cool the lakes off. I'd take a clipper or lake effect snow at this point. Typically this location would be around 4" for the season by now.

I don't how they do it...fake snow, put something white on the ground! That's a good one...

Gets old for the first half of December sometimes for Milwaukee south, but it's just really climo a lot... rain to cold repeat. If it was so easy to snow for a lot of us snow weenies we wouldn't be here like nuts putting in the endless hrs looking at prospects even if they aren't there... Breed of our own I guess :thumbsup:

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Geos

Geos

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Yeah I hope so. I keep remembering 2007-08 in my head but that's not going to help. That was easily the greatest winter that I have ever witnessed. We were more than spoiled that winter. I was a little to young to remember the 99 Blizzard but I'm doing some research on it. Seems like it was worthy of Mel LAstman calling in the army :lol:

I remember the Blizzard of 1999 well! Was a Junior in HS. That Blizzard was a version like the Ground Hog Day Blizzard, but with more wind around here by Chicago. Peak wind gusts with the '99 Blizzard were around 35mph I believe and the GHD blizzard had wind gusts to 60mph. A big difference in the impact to people was a bit different... The '99 storm came in during the weekend -started at night. The GHD blizzard came in before rush hour in Chicago during the middle of the week! - Hence all the people that got stranded in their cars, some of them up to 15 hours.

I'm not sure what all the impacts were in Ontario, but I know this region was plastered!

I had 37.8" of snow from Jan. 1st - Jan 14th, 1999! I think the normal for KUGN is about 41" for the entire season!

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beavis1729

beavis1729

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Gets old for the first half of December sometimes for Milwaukee south, but it's just really climo a lot... rain to cold repeat. If it was so easy to snow for a lot of us snow weenies we wouldn't be here like nuts putting in the endless hrs looking at prospects even if they aren't there... Breed of our own I guess :thumbsup:

Yes sir...and I'm guilty of this too.

I always hope DJF will be non-stop winter, but unfortunately that doesn't match up with reality when you're at 42-43N in the Midwest. You really need to be in the north woods of WI for that, i.e. somewhere like Rhinelander, Minocqua, etc. Beautiful country up there!!

Hopefully we'll have some events to track soon for all of us in the Lakes and OV, including S WI. This Dec. 5-6 event could still hit IN, E MI, and W OH...but not sure if temperatures will be cool enough for snow.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

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Yes sir...and I'm guilty of this too.

I always hope DJF will be non-stop winter, but unfortunately that doesn't match up with reality when you're at 42-43N in the Midwest. You really need to be in the north woods of WI for that, i.e. somewhere like Rhinelander, Minocqua, etc. Beautiful country up there!!

Hopefully we'll have some events to track soon for all of us in the Lakes and OV, including S WI. This Dec. 5-6 event could still hit IN, E MI, and W OH...but not sure if temperatures will be cool enough for snow.

Yeah its going to start to get a little frisky I'm afraid, but there has been some chances and some have even done real good in Nov. already.. Never was real big on this storm coming up being so close on the heals of the last one but hopefully some cash in on frozen. I'm pretty much punting until around the 20th and hopefully its not a warm to cold storm again.

John dee said

"I also feel that the start to this snow season may be a bit delayed, causing some to think that it is going to be a bust. However, I believe that once winter truly arrives in the northern US (may be as late as early December) that it will occur with vigor the rest of the season and perhaps into early spring as well."

Now we just wait for the trickle down to us poor southern folks. I'm really big on catching up to normals later this winter in Feb and March.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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Really surprised this trough complex wasn't able to even spin a moderate storm up somewhere outside the first wave. The ducks looked on the pond, but they wouldn't quack. Instead, the final piece of it is dumped off the east coast like it never existed.

Yeah you'd think we'd get a pretty good storm out of a trough/baroclinicy like this. I think it all came down to poorly timed shortwave phasing interactions. As they say timing is everything lol.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Really surprised this trough complex wasn't able to even spin a moderate storm up somewhere outside the first wave. The ducks looked on the pond, but they wouldn't quack. Instead, the final piece of it is dumped off the east coast like it never existed.

Yeah you'd think we'd get a pretty good storm out of a trough/baroclinicy like this. I think it all came down to poorly timed shortwave phasing interactions. As they say timing is everything lol.

Eh, I blame the craptastically poorly handled dominant + AO regime lately. Everything turns into nasty positive tilt junk...full latitude troughs just cutoff completely. Throw in the NAM being by far the worst guidance out there and we have another disappointment.

post-999-0-98913700-1323062492.png

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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Eh, I blame the craptastically poorly handled dominant + AO regime lately. Everything turns into nasty positive tilt junk...full latitude troughs just cutoff completely. Throw in the NAM being by far the worst guidance out there and we have another disappointment.

Regarding the NAM I gotta say I'm not too enthusiastic with its performance so far this season. I was hoping the new upgrade would be of some help. Unfortunately it almost seems worse lol. Oh well, keeps things interesting I guess. :tomato:

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Regarding the NAM I gotta say I'm not too enthusiastic with its performance so far this season. I was hoping the new upgrade would be of some help. Unfortunately it almost seems worse lol. Oh well, keeps things interesting I guess. :tomato:

It has been fooking atrocious, a total joke. I swear it almost seems like they never changed a thing. I am surprised because the parallel was running great. I don't even bother with it anymore except within 36 hours...even then it is often a total joke.

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Powerball

Powerball

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Grasping at straws obviously, but the latest HRRR is bringing back moisture further NW (granted it's also warmer) and the surface reflection down in LA/TN/KY seems to be a bit stronger than the models progged.

So very close and yet so far.

We're going to get our snow anyway even in spite of our second near-miss so far this season (climo says it WILL and HAS TO come), still no biggie, but admittingly the indices with respect to the next 2-3 weeks are awful winter storm-wise, at least outside of the Plains/Upper Midwest/Northern New England.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

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Crazy wet year!

Foot of snow in SEMI... :lol: Thats like saying theres a tooth ferry

I know right.. :popcorn: ...year after year, waiting, patience is running low. Another big problem is before I know I'll be 50 and old :./ lol (I'm still not over the Feb1st storm from last year-20"?) FML- Oh yeah New Years Storm 2007 or 2008? and yeah the famous triple phaser that never happened... Eh, Good memories. NOT! :facepalm:

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dmc76

dmc76

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I know right.. :popcorn: ...year after year, waiting, patience is running low. Another big problem is before I know I'll be 50 and old :./ lol (I'm still not over the Feb1st storm from last year-20"?) FML- Oh yeah New Years Storm 2007 or 2008? and yeah the famous tripled phaser that never happened... Eh, Good memories. NOT! :facepalm:

Detroit 2 storms + 12" in Detroit since 1950. LOL LOL LOL :facepalm:

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

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I would turn that sucker on for 3 days straight! :)

BTW: rain looks to be done by 10am and yet DTX says another "surge" of moisture by late morning through the afternoon. Good forecasting! :facepalm:

Take another potential out by its knees. Again wouldn't be a bust withoutmy SeMi friends blowing up a thread. Much love from the RO.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Take another potential out by its knees. Again wouldn't be a bust withoutmy SeMi friends blowing up a thread. Much love from the RO.

So true, so true. As Ive said...keep in mind, this is WITH the fact weve gotten so much snow the last how many years. (well actually, 3 out of the last 4 years have seen snow on the order of 180% of normal, the year in between was right near climo, or as many called it at the time, "worst winter ever" :lol: ). A truly craptastic winter, this board would self destruct lol. Although this isnt really a bust. Its a nam fantasy not come true, as usual :gun_bandana:

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Back to the storm....it is a little interesting that the HRRR is trying to bring in accumulating snowfall. Per DTX dendritic growth is not that good. The key will be if the cold air can clash with the precip before it ends.

Now our two minor accumulating events so far...Nov 30th saw an absolute deluge of rain, on the order of 2.75" imby, before switching to snow. The flakes were not that big, the ground was as saturated/flooded as ever, and yet the snow still stuck almost at once, allowing us to wake up to the first white of the season (0.6"), even a touch powdery. Then, on Dec 2nd, with NO rain to sog up the ground (anymore than it was), and excellent dendrites falling, we barely were able to slush up 0.1" of snow out of the 0.05" water that fell from those dendrites. So it will be interesting to see how this goes later today.

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