wxhstn74 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Check out the new storm on the NAM 84 hr for MidWest/Lakes while the GFS and Euro keep her elongated with weak waves. UK's SFC shows impressive inverted trough stickin' it's beak up from the south at 72-96H...usually a forebearer of "somebody's gone to get clobbered." The models again have poor resolution coming into that upper trough/low yet. Is this a one hit wonder or one to watch!>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well I guess if anyone should of started the thread, it should be you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 southwest vorts are always such a bear to forecast but bring us our best snows. The NAM is in a league of it's own but there were some minor moves in its direction with the GFS and it's ensembles and the SREFs. It doesn't look like the 18z will be as amped as 12z but won't completely capitulate to a hyper suppressed solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah but look at the can of worms I opened up with the other one, lets hope with this one, the models aren't a mass of contradictions again. I forgot to mentioned the sfc wave over AR at 84 is in a sweet spot too for the Arkansas into Ohio Valley Low develop.I've been watching for signs of these storm tracks forming but too early to see a definite pattern yet. This winter might bounce all around with storms which is why I wrote the article "Trouble", I really hope not and we get into the groove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah but look at the can of worms I opened up with the other one, lets hope with this one, the models aren't a mass of contradictions again. I forgot to mentioned the sfc wave over AR at 84 is in a sweet spot too for the Arkansas into Ohio Valley Low develop.I've been watching for signs of these storm tracks forming but too early to see a definite pattern yet. This winter might bounce all around with storms which is why I wrote the article "Trouble", I really hope not and we get into the groove. we're talking about a cutoff vort in the desert southwest...not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 baroclinic zone a tad further south from north central TX to nw AR on the 18z NAM through 66hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I agree that climo says this ends up a bit NW of where the models are showing now. Unless we're talking an overwhelming arctic outbreak, the "typical" track would put Chicago in the game, if not the bullseye. Having said that, a marginal temp event (especially with stronger NE winds) brings into play a warm Lake Mich and could easily "hose" the city and those folks closer to the shoreline. Seen it b4. Some times that big water can be a plus (later season storms like GHD), and sometimes it can be a curse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 baroclinic zone a tad further south from north central TX to nw AR on the 18z NAM through 66hr. much less amped but still drills STL to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 18z NAM ends up further south, well it was fun while it lasted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 !8z off run NAM wasnt all that bad for snow lovers in NW-NE OH , IN and parts of MI. Still tons o time to enjoy looking at this potential..It will be even more fun watching the models try to sort through the BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well I guess if anyone should of started the thread, it should be you. Should I insult him again? You never know what might help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Maybe the ECMWF and GGEM are both right. That would be a impressive!!!! ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 DTX THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE CONVOLUTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN PARTICULAR WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH A 160+ KNOT JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC LEAVING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...AT LEAST DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER SOLUTION WITH A QUICKER EJECTION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THIS KEEPS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE 12Z NAM PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET PLACEMENT AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BIAS FOR BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH MID CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 DTX AFD.... LOL. Well you can take the WeatherHistorian out of DTX but you can't take DTX out of the WeatherHistorian... I will have to check to see who wrote that cautionary AFD! It's great to see they are watching the Pacific strongly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Gotta love the 1040mb+ high coming down into the Plains as well. You can just imagine how crazy it could get if a strong surface low rides up the baroclinic zone. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Both ABC 7 and WGN 9 in Chicago tonight are mentioning the possibility of a second system coming to the Chicagoland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 DVN seems interested. ...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED BACKING THE NORTHERN EDGE NORTH. THE NAM WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SHOWED THE NORTHERN SHIFT BUT KEPT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH THEN A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 DVN seems interested. ...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED BACKING THE NORTHERN EDGE NORTH. THE NAM WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SHOWED THE NORTHERN SHIFT BUT KEPT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH THEN A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. Ya read that earlier. Hard to get excited until we see the GFS/Euro move in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Gotta love that epic OK to MO band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 A few days ago I had a feeling this type of system would form. But I didnt think it'd be west of me. Its early but right now it looks my more than Will be a nice event for someone. Hope we can see some snow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 00Z RGEM Hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm wondering if the NAM at 84hr withs that s/w in Arizona will create a bigger stronger storm towards next wed/thurs like what the 12z CMC was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ROFL.... oh Earl Baker... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 from the other thread, forgot about this one... This second system is looking more and more interesting, but I'm not ready to bite just yet on anything to drastic. Play things conservative for now and make sure the energy is going to roll out and not get trapped in the SW which is possible...these things can dig into Northern Mexico or retrograde to the Baja region and sit. The baroclinic zone is mighty impressive should something get going and I wouldn't write off Chicago, Kirksville, Topeka areas to get something good...any further to the NW I just don't see it as the cold air will be so firmly entrenched and deflect precipitation. Nothing like splitting the uprights here and miss one to the NW and then to the SE...LOL. Goes that way a lot, but at least we got a biggie last year so I cannot complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ROFL.... oh Earl Baker... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ILX If I thought that was gonna drop 16" I'd be heading home to Missouri in a heartbeat. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS is becoming more amplified. Decent totals over SE MI/NW OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Oh earl and NAM is teasing Peoria for a Janet on Janet injection into the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 There's still quite a difference between how the NAM and GFS handle things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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