Srain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Guidance is suggesting some impressive totals for the Rockies into the Plains. With a 1-2 punch of upper air disturbances ejecting out of AZ, it is becoming likely we will have our first fairly widespread Winter Storm event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 In extreme Southeast Minnesota here still waiting for our first snowfall. Lots of potential with this one but at this point it looks like the best action may be just to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 06z GFS, 09z SREF and now the 12z NAM are coming further nw with the track as it comes out of the sw. 12z NAM 48-84hr animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 As much as the snow lover in me wants to believe the 12z NAM....the NAM in general, in my opinion, has been JUNK around here all fall...(not that the GFS has been any better) *patiently waiting for the Euro* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 By the way, for those wondering....the 12z NAM gives MSP around 1.04" liquid. It also has a bit of a p-type issue with the first batch of precipitation. Surface temps warm up quite a bit, deep enough surface warm layer for the NAM to depict rain as the p-type for a period Saturday AM. So it would be a SNOW-RAIN-SNOW transition. Again, given the performance of the NAM around here lately, this is all taken with a grain of salt right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 As much as the snow lover in me wants to believe the 12z NAM....the NAM in general, in my opinion, has been JUNK around here all fall...(not that the GFS has been any better) *patiently waiting for the Euro* I share your opinion about the Nam...just nice to see some qpf plotted over the area for once on a model. lol Last 3 months total precip here has been 1.06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It looks mostly dry here with this front, maybe an inch, the big story for me will be cold air. Could struggle to break freezing on the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS sticking quite a bit east of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 12z GGEM is still crap...way south. UKIE looks like it will be n of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 12z GGEM is still crap...way south. UKIE looks like it will be n of the GFS Ya thats for sure, probably snow here. Complete miss for you guys up there. Lets see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 12z euro jumped n some...MSP qpf 0.47" SAT 12Z 03-DEC -0.6 -3.1 1021 88 76 0.01 557 541 SAT 18Z 03-DEC 1.0 -3.4 1020 94 96 0.04 556 540 SUN 00Z 04-DEC 0.0 -4.7 1017 98 100 0.22 551 537 SUN 06Z 04-DEC -1.7 -6.8 1016 88 98 0.19 543 531 SUN 12Z 04-DEC -6.7 -9.9 1018 79 10 0.01 539 525 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 This should make for an interesting late week into early next week... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 142 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 03 2011 - 12Z WED DEC 07 2011 A STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKER NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO HELP MAINTAIN A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT TUE 06 DEC. EARLY PRELIM PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z WED ECMWF/12Z TUE ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS UTILIZE 00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS AND 00Z UKMET DAYS 3-5 AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEANS DAYS 6 AND 7 TUES/WED. 12Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN WHILE 12Z CMC REMAINS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF OF LEAVING SIGNIFICANT ENERGY BEHIND AS A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS 4-5 AND TAKES MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY EASTWARD. THE 12Z UKMET HOWEVER HAS SWITCHED TOWARDS THE GFS/CMC SOLUTION FROM ITS PRIOR TREND CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO SWITCHED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION THIS RUN. THIS WAS THE ORIGINAL ECMWF SOLUTION SEVERAL DAYS AGO WITH THE EARLIER GFS RUNS LOOKING LIKE YESTERDAYS AND THE OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF. THIS DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE. HPC PROGS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN PRIOR ISSUANCE WITH OR WHEN ANY SUCCEEDING RUNS CONVERGE ON A BETTER AGREED UPON SOLUTION THEN HPC GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE. WESTERN US TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED MID-UPPER PACIFIC ANTICYCLONE...A REGION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE EJECTION OF ONE 500 MB WAVE FROM THE LOW ON SAT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BEYOND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF PRECIP CROSSING THE CO/NM ROCKIES AND THEN THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. WHILE THE LEAD WAVE EJECTS...ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SHOWN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL. THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW ON SUN IN THE SOUTHWEST. AT 12Z SUN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN STARTS TO ALLOW THE LOW TO MOVE EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE IT MORE SLOWLY. GIVEN THE HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW AND IN AN ALMOST REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION...PREFER THE SLOWER MOVING CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOW THIS CLOSED LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST TUE NIGHT 06 DEC INTO WED 07 DEC. NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT 03 DEC AND SUN 04 DEC...WITH DIFFERENCES REGARDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH MAY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THE 12Z TUE ECMWF/18Z GFS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO CLOSE OFF TO A CLOSED LOW BY 12Z TUE AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LAKES AND HEADS TOWARDS NY/NEW ENGLAND..THEN OFF THE COAST WED 07 DEC. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE AMPLIFICATION OF ONE OF THE EMBEDDED 500 MB SHORTWAVES INTO A CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH IN OH/PA TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WAS ALSO PRESENTED 3 RUNS AGO IN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...BLEND OF OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF AND ITS ENS MEAN USED TO HANDLE THE DIFFERENCES. ON DAY 7...THE HIGH HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION OF A CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY. TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH LEAD TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 HPC snow/ice...Day 3 Composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is a tough forecast, but if I were a betting man, I would take middle of the road for now. I hate saying that, but the GFS lately has been way too weak with the +AO, so from a standpoint of the northern stream, that would favor something along the lines of an ECMWF solution. However, these low level fronts have a tendency to leak southward faster than progged, so something along a 12Z GFS/EC compromise seems the best at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It looks mostly dry here with this front, maybe an inch, the big story for me will be cold air. Could struggle to break freezing on the 4th. Cold...and wind for portions of the SLC/UT Valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 As much as the snow lover in me wants to believe the 12z NAM....the NAM in general, in my opinion, has been JUNK around here all fall...(not that the GFS has been any better) *patiently waiting for the Euro* Totally agree. The NAM has been total garbage. I have been very disappointed with it. It is weird because it was superior to he old NAM when it was running in parallel mode, but since being unveiled in September it has been junk. It has struggled especially with this system with all sorts of crazy solutions that simply don't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I am beginning to lose confidence in the ECMWF solution...which is farthest N. Besides the fact this system is a product of two cold frontal surges which tend to leak a bit farther S than progged, the guidance has been very slowly trending towards a strongly amplified E Pac ridge with a farther W cutoff low across the 4 corners. All in all, this results in a slower ejection of the wave and more time for the northern stream/arctic front to surge south. Fits the seasonal trend of deep troughs to tend more towards a positive tilt configuration...resulting in weaker cyclogenesis and more frontal wave setups. This system looks no different. Unfortunately the 0Z GFS possibly leaning towards the 12Z CMC would be a realistic scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I am beginning to lose confidence in the ECMWF solution...which is farthest N. Besides the fact this system is a product of two cold frontal surges which tend to leak a bit farther S than progged, the guidance has been very slowly trending towards a strongly amplified E Pac ridge with a farther W cutoff low across the 4 corners. All in all, this results in a slower ejection of the wave and more time for the northern stream/arctic front to surge south. Fits the seasonal trend of deep troughs to tend more towards a positive tilt configuration...resulting in weaker cyclogenesis and more frontal wave setups. This system looks no different. Unfortunately the 0Z GFS possibly leaning towards the 12Z CMC would be a realistic scenario. Now the 0z CMC dumps 0.41 qpf for LBF where the 0z GFS gives you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Hey Prinsburg, would you mind posting your 0z GGEM images for us Lakes crew? Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Now the 0z CMC dumps 0.41 qpf for LBF where the 0z GFS gives you nothing. Ha I am finding that CMC solution hard to believe, but I would take it. My question is how the heck it would develop that far N with such a poor configuration and the expected DMC along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Hey Prinsburg, would you mind posting your 0z GGEM images for us Lakes crew? Thanks man! 96 & 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ha I am finding that CMC solution hard to believe, but I would take it. My question is how the heck it would develop that far N with such a poor configuration and the expected DMC along the front. I don't know but fwiw the 0z ukie is like the ggem at 72 but further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ha I am finding that CMC solution hard to believe, but I would take it. My question is how the heck it would develop that far N with such a poor configuration and the expected DMC along the front. 0z euro plots 0.13 for LBF but just to your south at MCK it gives 0.43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 man, i wish there were people posting obs for the snow developing along the front range of the Rockies...hmmm, I guess there would have to posters from that area on this board...i'd love to see pics and hear what people have to say about the current conditions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 man, i wish there were people posting obs for the snow developing along the front range of the Rockies...hmmm, I guess there would have to posters from that area on this board...i'd love to see pics and hear what people have to say about the current conditions... 24.8 degrees 4" of fluffy snow. (or maybe a bit more) It stopped snowing. The pics wouldn't look as the pics I took of snowstorms on Oct. 26 or Nov. 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo_fran Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 man, i wish there were people posting obs for the snow developing along the front range of the Rockies...hmmm, I guess there would have to posters from that area on this board...i'd love to see pics and hear what people have to say about the current conditions... 6-7" on elevated surfaces in Highlands Ranch, but winds have been gusty at times so huge variations point to point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12z euro back north again and gives southern & eastern MN a good shot of snow...i'm posting the ukie maps from 12z as the euro is very close with the ukie track. euro qpf LBF 0.34 MSP 0.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12z euro back north again and gives southern & eastern MN a good shot of snow...i'm posting the ukie maps from 12z as the euro is very close with the ukie track. euro qpf LBF 0.34 MSP 0.38 What does the Euro show for Rochester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What does the Euro show for Rochester? RST SAT 12Z 03-DEC 0.9 -1.1 1021 92 97 0.06 560 543 SAT 18Z 03-DEC 1.3 -1.9 1021 99 99 0.09 559 543 SUN 00Z 04-DEC 0.5 -1.8 1017 99 99 0.26 555 541 SUN 06Z 04-DEC 0.0 -3.4 1013 98 98 0.34 548 537 SUN 12Z 04-DEC -1.7 -5.9 1013 93 98 0.05 542 531 SUN 18Z 04-DEC -2.4 -7.9 1020 81 65 0.01 542 527 Euro 0.81 Ukie 0.80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thanks alot. Looks warm at the surface, but pretty good aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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