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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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The 00Z NAM, as Brett has been playing up, shows a total sleet fest, at least here in the OKC/OUN metro. Seems to show upwards of 0.8-0.9" of liquid falling as sleet before finally changing over to snow by 12Z Friday morning. While IP isn't quite as bad as ZR, it is still a royal pain and snow would be much preferred. :lol:

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This is looking pretty impressive from a frozen precip standpoint, hopefully more snow. The friday round looking better.

I agree. Am hoping the colder column/surface temps translate to even higher than expected snowfall totals. I can hope right. Lol. All other parameters still looking strong as well.

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I feel I need to remind folks that the European snow graphics are simply derived from precipitation falling with surface temperatures below 32°F. In fact, the higher snow totals across Southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas wuold likely fall as freezing rain/sleet, greatly reducing snow amounts while causing a significant and potentially crippling ice storm. 

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As of early this morning, NWS Norman, Tulsa and Little Rock have all put up Winter Storm Watches for Thursday and Friday.  Amarillo (because they are looking at mostly just light snow at this point), Dallas (waiting for more definitive details) and Springfield (the timeline for frozen precip is further out for their CWA) are each going with Special Weather Statements at this point.  For obvious reasons, none of them are going too far out on a limb yet with firm details on potential accumulations or snow/sleet/freezing rain lines, but we can at least feel confident that we've all got some weather coming.  Now comes the hard part:  Watching and waiting and hoping the details, as they crystallize, work out in each of our backyards.   

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Am I missing something? SGF only going with 2-4"? I figured it might be a bit more bullish.

 

Nah, there's going to be a large area of sleet. The area where the snow falls the longest is going to be on the fringes of the light precip. Especially with that 850 MB front not wanting to budge much until round 2 of the precip. 

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The Thursday event may not happen at all for OKC...that's what one met on another site was saying.  I don't believe that. However, the GFS and NAM both did move the main amounts of precip further east for Thursday.  I think it's delaying it till Friday according to what I can see.

 

Here's what the met said. I will leave him nameless.

 

" don't think it was the change itself that was crazy, it appears the magnitude of the shift is what's thrown a wrench into things. From what I'm reading/inferring, the sure-fire 100% event that's been on tap for OKC on Thursday may not happen at all if the models are right and the storm pushes off farther east"

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He goes on to elaborate:

 

"Latest GFS has snow band basically only SE of OKC area and only dumping measurable amounts in SC OK.

Latest NAM has snow band up in KS and MO.


So basically the GFS is trending slightly further east and the NAM is trending way northeast (it thinks the low will not track this far south and thus won't get going with sufficient moisture until reaching MO.


This afternoon and tonight's runs will help clear some things up. "

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The Thursday event may not happen at all for OKC...that's what one met on another site was saying.  I don't believe that. However, the GFS and NAM both did move the main amounts of precip further east for Thursday.  I think it's delaying it till Friday according to what I can see.

 

Here's what the met said. I will leave him nameless.

 

" don't think it was the change itself that was crazy, it appears the magnitude of the shift is what's thrown a wrench into things. From what I'm reading/inferring, the sure-fire 100% event that's been on tap for OKC on Thursday may not happen at all if the models are right and the storm pushes off farther east"

 

For whatever it is worth, Thursday (daytime) was not really considered the "main event" here in OKC... at least not based on what I was seeing (and I am definitely not an expert so take it with a grain of salt).  As I understood it, the thinking was that Thursday's "event" was going to be a bit of fairly light freezing rain and sleet in OKC.  Then, Thursday night into Friday there would be a second heavier period of precipitation with the potential for several inches of sleet and/or snow.  

 

Regardless, this plays right into my concerns.  My fear all along (for Central OK) has been that the Arctic push ends up stronger than what the models are predicting (which is a pretty standard model error) and it pushes the front and the precipitation further to the south and east.      

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Unless the Euro pulls a significant move today I certainly wouldn't knee jerk any one solution right now.  Steady the course.

 

Yeah, only a 30 minute wait, heh... the 12z GFS did move a bit south today, but north or south movements can be expected from run to run.

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He goes on to elaborate:

 

"Latest GFS has snow band basically only SE of OKC area and only dumping measurable amounts in SC OK.

Latest NAM has snow band up in KS and MO.

So basically the GFS is trending slightly further east and the NAM is trending way northeast (it thinks the low will not track this far south and thus won't get going with sufficient moisture until reaching MO.

This afternoon and tonight's runs will help clear some things up. "

 

We are still a bit far out for the NAM, and, if we are being brutally honest, even inside of 24 hours, the NAM isn't exactly a prize pig.  Still, it definitely bears watching, especially for us folks down here in Central OK.  It doesn't sound quite so disconerting up toward Tulsa and points north and east of there.   

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NJ_Ken: I agree completely.  The NAM is well...The NAM.  On a different subject...has anyone noticed how flipping COLD it's going to be next week?? At first I looked at the GFS, thinking the map was in Celcius...ugh NO! For December 11, it has OKC in the -10s...yes, that is in F.   :axe:

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12z Euro "Snowfall" numbers...  The first round is still kind of meh, so most of this comes during the second round.

 

Chanute, KS: 2.1"

Bartlesville, OK: 4.0"

Tulsa: 6.0"

OKC area: 5.5-6.0"

Joplin: 5.6"

Monett: 7.8"

Springfield: 7.4"

NW Arkansas conglomeration: 6.5-7.1"

Ft. Smith: 8.6"

Harrison, AR has around 10.2"

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Geez, I feel like a crack addict...  Why do we love this so much???

 

I don't know. I like tracking the storms and then watching the snow fall. I'm not someone that needs to see it on the ground for an extended period of time... not that we get a lot of that happening here anyway....

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12z Euro "Snowfall" numbers...  The first round is still kind of meh, so most of this comes during the second round.

 

Chanute, KS: 2.1"

Bartlesville, OK: 4.0"

Tulsa: 6.0"

OKC area: 5.5-6.0"

Joplin: 5.6"

Monett: 7.8"

Springfield: 7.4"

NW Arkansas conglomeration: 6.5-7.1"

Ft. Smith: 8.6"

Harrison, AR has around 10.2"

 

Thanks man I'll take it.

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Thanks man I'll take it.

 

Yeah that's probably a mix of snow and sleet so it won't be that much probably... but you can get precip amounts from that. 

 

Actually looking at QPF from the GFS/Euro/NAM through hour 84.....

 

The NAM has the most QPF... .. Throwing back 0.9" QPF over Joplin..... The Euro has 0.6" QPF.... The GFS comes in at 0.4-0.5"

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