The Waterboy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The DGEX snowfall map looks NUTS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 lol, yeah that's cause the DGEX is basically the extended NAM. 00z GFS has another storm system approaching in 9-10 days or so.... but we have a storm to focus on that's closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 LOL!! People wonder why we have this weather forum!! They don't call it an "I-44 Special" for nothing!!! GFS is going nuts on the amounts too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Amounts from Canada, eh? And probably ice and sleet just to the south of the snow on this map. Doesn't look like it has a 2nd system for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does anyone have a map of the Euro yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 00z Euro ... looks to be a bit heavier on Thursday and a band of precip is showing up in MO... looks to be just SE of the I-44 corridor. There's another one from around Ft. Smith to S-Central MO. After this, it looks as though it doesn't have as much precip, and it's a bit farther south with the precip for the second wave... Still a good hit for all the area though. Little more precip late Saturday night and Sunday with the 2nd system. Not much else through hour 198 as the trough is shearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well jomo I guess I will take back what I said about lockin it in so early lol. Sounds like things could get really nasty here, tulsa and local news here saying this starts as maybe rain right over zr earlier then expected now on thursday morning sometime! Then over to sleet and snow, this is nuts but I wont lie if I say im not excited. Then it sounds like round 2 on sunday possibly!!! Crazy crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does anyone have a map of the Euro yet? Not supposed to post Euro maps If you are looking for specific Euro amounts according to the Weatherbell map for all events through hour 204: (i have no idea if it's correct or not) Tulsa: Looks like 4.5, with 5.2 just off to the NE. Joplin: 4.7" Pittsburg, KS: 2.7" Monett: 7.6" Springdale/Bentonville etc..: 6.9" or so Ft. Smith: 7.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ok thanks Jomo! That whole can't post Euro maps is so stupid! I've done it before, I just don't have access on my phone...but I can see them on my computer. I'm just being lazy tonight. 7.7 for Fort Smith? Is that with ice too?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ok thanks Jomo! That whole can't post Euro maps is so stupid! I've done it before, I just don't have access on my phone...but I can see them on my computer. I'm just being lazy tonight. 7.7 for Fort Smith? Is that with ice too?? The forum mods have said not to post the Euro maps. I don't know if that is with sleet or ice or not. It's just what the Weatherbell Euro "Total Accumulation" map shows though hour 204. Was it accurate on the predictions on the amount of snow with the eastern snowstorm not long ago? I don't think it's accurate, and I don't think the GFS map is accurate either. I think it's possibly calculating the ice in with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 As an example, here's the GFS and "Clown" map Accumulated snow at 144. You can see the difference, so it would appear there's possibly a calculation issue (different way of calculating the snowfall?) with one of these maps, or it's taking sleet/ice into account or something. I've just been using it as a general guide to where the heaviest frozen precip will fall. WxBell: "Clown": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Tulsa weather office has backed the snow off a couple inches here overnight for Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Tulsa weather office has backed the snow off a couple inches here overnight for Thursday/Friday. I would not be too concerned about specifics as this stage. As Steve Piltz said on FB yesterday, "the amounts in the Decision Support page are not important, what is important is that they are there at all". Having said that, I think those of us along the "412 Corridor" in Arkansas have to be liking the setup, and after 2012-3 believe we are quite quite overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 OUN has issued a special weather statement for their forecast area. Completely understandably, they aren't touching accumulations or the ice/sleet/snow lines with a 10-foot pole at this point. They are just sticking with the vaguest generalities that winter weather is increasingly likely with mostly snow in NW Oklahoma, freezing rain then sleet then snow in central Oklahoma and, possibly moderate to heavy ice accumulations in southern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of north Texas. Hopefully, in another day or so, all of the players will be in locations where they can be sampled and the data incorporated into the models so we can start to dial in the details a bit. Regardless, I think somebody is in for a nice dump here. I am not ready to bet on who it will be, but there will almost certainly be fairly large a swath of 6"+ snows across the southern plains and heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 OUN has issued a special weather statement for their forecast area. Completely understandably, they aren't touching accumulations or the ice/sleet/snow lines with a 10-foot pole at this point. They are just sticking with the vaguest generalities that winter weather is increasingly likely with mostly snow in NW Oklahoma, freezing rain then sleet then snow in central Oklahoma and, possibly moderate to heavy ice accumulations in southern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of north Texas. Hopefully, in another day or so, all of the players will be in locations where they can be sampled and the data incorporated into the models so we can start to dial in the details a bit. Regardless, I think somebody is in for a nice dump here. I am not ready to bet on who it will be, but there will almost certainly be fairly large a swath of 6"+ snows across the southern plains and heading east. 6+ inches of snow is significant for us as you know. That will make travel hazardous especially if we get any sleet or ice. Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 OK, I've held in my enthusiasm long enough. I'm pretty excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Getting into the NAM range now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah. I'm very impressed with the model agreements on totals and track. Not often do they all agree so closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah. I'm very impressed with the model agreements on totals and track. Not often do they all agree so closely. Yes I think we have a shot with this upcoming week. Although it is the NAM and not sure how much of that is ice built into those accums it still appears things are looking up for some accumulating snows by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 You wanted to know how much of that "SNOW" from the NAM could be ice...take a look at this! UGLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That was my fear as it appears the NAM came in a bit warmer in the upper levels, leading to more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That was my fear as it appears the NAM came in a bit warmer in the upper levels, leading to more ice. 12z GFS did the same. Lots 'o sleet with the initial precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Based on past experience I don't get the feeling this setup is one for a major fz rain/ice storm concern. We typically have an ice storm when the arctic air is extremely shallow and WAA wins out over the top of the cold air. The forecasted temps with this front up into KS, Neb, CO (and for our area by Friday) are frigid. As we've all stated many times the models suck at forecasting how quickly the cold air moves in. Sleet may be an issue at the onset but I think a transition to snow happens fairly quick for most of us. West Central and Central Ark (Fort Smith down to Little Rock) should have more concern for icing because 1) the Ozark mountains slow the cold front/cold air down and 2) it may be a race between the cold air and the precip. My gut tells me that the cold air will be in place near the onset of precip. I could be wrong, but as cold as this arctic front is I would be extremely surprised to see anyone in SW Mo, NE Ok, or NWA get hammered by ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Quick peek at the 12z Euro shows it's a bit farther east and south with everything again for the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Based on past experience I don't get the feeling this setup is one for a major fz rain/ice storm concern. We typically have an ice storm when the arctic air is extremely shallow and WAA wins out over the top of the cold air. The forecasted temps with this front up into KS, Neb, CO (and for our area by Friday) are frigid. As we've all stated many times the models suck at forecasting how quickly the cold air moves in. Sleet may be an issue at the onset but I think a transition to snow happens fairly quick for most of us. West Central and Central Ark (Fort Smith down to Little Rock) should have more concern for icing because 1) the Ozark mountains slow the cold front/cold air down and 2) it may be a race between the cold air and the precip. My gut tells me that the cold air will be in place near the onset of precip. I could be wrong, but as cold as this arctic front is I would be extremely surprised to see anyone in SW Mo, NE Ok, or NWA get hammered by ice. I agree. I think any risk of severe icing to the north of I-40 will be fairly limited/non-existent. If the cold was coming out of east-central Canada instead of western Canada/Alaska and overrunning deep gulf moisture I would say it would be horrible but not in this situation. Just too many things missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like a clear-cut sleet forecast for many of us with the first batch on Thursday, judging by soundings. At least the models aren't even teasing us with illusions it will be anything else. Personally, I'd much prefer 70 and sunny to sleet. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 For what it's worth, one national private weather outfit (who shall remain nameless) is placing the Thursday night bullseye pretty much along I-44 for much of Oklahoma. They are calling for 3" to 6" of snow from Lawton to Oklahoma City to Tulsa. Their forecast has a tight gradient (they show Norman, a few miles south of OKC, and Guthrie, a few miles to the north of OKC, both getting only 1" to 3"), which means the bullseye will almost certainly shift at least a bit between now and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well, Tulsa NWS finally decided to draw their bullseye and it looks pretty good for where I'm at. I'll take 6.5 inches of snow through next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well, Tulsa NWS finally decided to draw their bullseye and it looks pretty good for where I'm at. I'll take 6.5 inches of snow through next Monday. They also took the ice accumulations out of their grids for everyone north and west of Fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 They also took the ice accumulations out of their grids for everyone north and west of Fayetteville. That's never bad news either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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