JoMo Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like the front is slightly ahead of schedule. Probably won't make much difference as the majority of the precip will want to stay out ahead of it. Still looking at light icing issues possible primarily in SE KS and NE OK depending on how far SE the front makes it before precip ends. The NAM is still developing more precip behind the front but the local NWS offices aren't buying it, saying the NAM sometimes develops precip too far back into the cold air. Also snow/icing issues whenever the upper low kicks out... probably around Sunday/Monday primarily OK/AR with that one as the low is going to be pretty far south. NOAA released their winter forecast today. *yawn* Doug Heady's forecast will be out Nov 25th. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20131121_winteroutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like the front is slightly ahead of schedule. Probably won't make much difference as the majority of the precip will want to stay out ahead of it. Still looking at light icing issues possible primarily in SE KS and NE OK depending on how far SE the front makes it before precip ends. The NAM is still developing more precip behind the front but the local NWS offices aren't buying it, saying the NAM sometimes develops precip too far back into the cold air. Also snow/icing issues whenever the upper low kicks out... probably around Sunday/Monday primarily OK/AR with that one as the low is going to be pretty far south. NOAA released their winter forecast today. *yawn* Doug Heady's forecast will be out Nov 25th. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20131121_winteroutlook.html For whatever it is worth, the front passed through Oklahoma City in the past hour. It was 68 F at around 12:15 pm when I left for lunch and 55 F with a howling north wind less than an hour later when I returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This doesn't look fun if it verifies: Good grief...just say no to sleet!! This is through Tuesday....yah...I pray this is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 On the flip side...the GEM is showing some snow as the low ejects out. Totals are overdoing it, but it's looking better. This would be at 120 hours. And I have no clue what that equates to in inches..maybe someone else knows:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This doesn't look fun if it verifies: Good grief...just say no to sleet!! This is through Tuesday....yah...I pray this is wrong. HOLY COW! Impressive! I would take sleet over ice any day though. Also as reference, 10mm equals 0.39 inches. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 On the flip side...the GEM is showing some snow as the low ejects out. Totals are overdoing it, but it's looking better. This would be at 120 hours. And I have no clue what that equates to in inches..maybe someone else knows:) Of course, we have to qualify it by pointing out it is the GEM, but, taken verbatim (unless my metric conversion skills have left me... and that is a distinct possibility), it would appear it is showing on the order of 3" to 6" of snow for most of the northwestern 2/3 of Oklahoma including not only OKC and Tulsa, but maybe even Lawton, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Correct. Models are starting to agree on low tracking straight through OK. Am still hoping the totals go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 32 and drizzle here now. Anyone see how crazy the long range 00z GFS is? Big swings from run to run and 'extreme' solutions usually means a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 32 and drizzle here now. Anyone see how crazy the long range 00z GFS is? Big swings from run to run and 'extreme' solutions usually means a pattern change. Yeah. Its weird. Maybe west based ridge developing in a couple of weeks? Cold shifting east. Wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 yeah the big storm developing on the 300 hour panel, followed by the Arctic hounds unleashed all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. It's an extreme solution so it's more than likely wrong, but it signals some sort of change. I'm just excited to see continued cold, and weather systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 yeah the big storm developing on the 300 hour panel, followed by the Arctic hounds unleashed all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. It's an extreme solution so it's more than likely wrong, but it signals some sort of change. I'm just excited to see continued cold, and weather systems. I agree. I like east based cold over west based. Better for snow chances in eastern OK and your area. As long as the STJ keeps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 What's everyone's thoughts on our area getting some snow? Models seems to be keeping the heaviest precip south and west of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 What's everyone's thoughts on our area getting some snow? Models seems to be keeping the heaviest precip south and west of our area. I am no expert, but it sure looks like Sunday's storm is going to skirt to our south. Of course, these kinds of storms are notoriously difficult to predict so there is still time for changes. Still, if I was betting, I would say Dallas gets a couple of inches of sleet, while we see a few flurries. On the plus side, the 12z GFS seems to be hinting at an interesting pattern for the next few weeks so there may well be additional chances for snow in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 What's everyone's thoughts on our area getting some snow? Models seems to be keeping the heaviest precip south and west of our area. Late Sunday night and into Monday morning. It could possibly be a light mix though. Onset would probably be snow or sleet. Best chances for precip in OK. 12z GFS is very cold long range with a possible storm around Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 One thing is for sure, once this thing finally ejects out...someone is gonna get pummeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Those in NE OK and NW AR and maybe far far SW MO may see a mix of stuff from time to time this afternoon/tonight and probably again Sunday night. Better chances the farther south and west you go. The next event to watch for after this event will be around the 10 day mark (240 hours). The 12z GFS is wanting more interaction between a system in the northern stream and a new cutoff over the SW. The 12z Euro keeps them separate and the northern stream dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Those in NE OK and NW AR and maybe far far SW MO may see a mix of stuff from time to time this afternoon/tonight and probably again Sunday night. Better chances the farther south and west you go. I am under that blob of precip in Central OK now and it is steady (though not overly heavy) sleet and freezing rain. Everybody to our northeast (Tulsa, Joplin and NW AR) is probably in line for an interesting evening rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am under that blob of precip in Central OK now and it is steady (though not overly heavy) sleet and freezing rain. Everybody to our northeast (Tulsa, Joplin and NW AR) is probably in line for an interesting evening rush hour. Yeah, that stuff is going to make it a lot further east than previously expected. It looks like I'll get under it right as temps start falling again here if they don't fall again as soon as precipitation starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You Tulsa peeps getting freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Freezing Rain/Sleet coming down here on the north side of Tulsa...pretty steady...temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 OKC already showing pictures of glazed over cars and several car accidents..a 10 car pileup on I-40 right now. State football playoffs have been cancelled tonight. If these batches of freezing rain/sleet don't hurry up and get out quickly, Tulsa to the NE is gonna get a surprise. Tulsa mets weren't expecting anything this far east...at least not anything frozen this soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 OKC already showing pictures of glazed over cars and several car accidents..a 10 car pileup on I-40 right now. State football playoffs have been cancelled tonight. If these batches of freezing rain/sleet don't hurry up and get out quickly, Tulsa to the NE is gonna get a surprise. Tulsa mets weren't expecting anything this far east...at least not anything frozen this soon. I kinda knew better. They always downplay ice until its happening. Anyone remember 1/27-29 2009. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You all realize it's just Nov 22nd right and we're getting frozen precip? This year is so much different than last year. It continues to look good in the extended with the -EPO hanging tight and delivering cold air. We're just going to need these systems to be timed right for a big storm over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 OKC already showing pictures of glazed over cars and several car accidents..a 10 car pileup on I-40 right now. State football playoffs have been cancelled tonight. If these batches of freezing rain/sleet don't hurry up and get out quickly, Tulsa to the NE is gonna get a surprise. Tulsa mets weren't expecting anything this far east...at least not anything frozen this soon. If the local news is to be believed, road conditions are pretty awful in spots around the OKC metro with lots of accidents. Ironically, the highways seem to be in worse shape than the back streets because, of course, highways have lots of elevated sections. Just about all of the reported accidents are on the interstates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You all realize it's just Nov 22nd right and we're getting frozen precip? This year is so much different than last year. It continues to look good in the extended with the -EPO hanging tight and delivering cold air. We're just going to need these systems to be timed right for a big storm over the area. Yes sir. Pretty exciting isn't it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yes sir. Pretty exciting isn't it?! Yes it is, just need to work on getting a system at the same time as the cold. If this type of pattern holds up, it's only a matter of time. Euro Ensembles after Day 10 show the cold air rebuilding over SW Canada and dropping SE again towards us. The persistent ridge near Alaska stays put funneling the cold air into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yes it is, just need to work on getting a system at the same time as the cold. If this type of pattern holds up, it's only a matter of time. Euro Ensembles after Day 10 show the cold air rebuilding over SW Canada and dropping SE again towards us. The persistent ridge near Alaska stays put funneling the cold air into the US. Awesome. Just hoping the air is already here in full force. No more of this maybe this precip type or maybe that type. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm hearing ppl saying the main low will go directly south instead of coming through OK..so that will definately keep our area out of the snow. Guess this was just not our storm..but maybe soon:) Hate to see cold air go to waste but instead dump ice on ppl who have no clue how to deal with it. I have a lot of family in southern OK, and even they are frightened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Winter weather advisory in effect here until 4am.....light drizzle right now 32.4 degrees. I can see a little bit of glazing on the tree branches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Best chance for a mix of precip in the next few days will be over far south portions of NE OK and NW AR and it should be rather light. Thanksgiving still looks seasonably cool with high temps in the 40's. 12z GFS switched back to very cold in the long range after having a not as cold look last night. 00z Euro Ensembles last night for the Day 10+ range still had the -EPO look with cold air sliding down the east side of the Rockies and spreading out. Towards the end of the run though, they did try to retrograde the ridge back a bit to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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