wildweatherman179 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Fun? It's the worst hobby ever! Just wait until we have a legit threat and you find yourself waking up in the middle of the night to check the models only to see that the 6-12" of snow that you were supposed to get has turned into rain as the system is going to move farther NW. Sure, you'll hold out hope that it was just a fluke run and the next model run in 6 hours will bring your snow back.... but it doesn't... but hey that model run didn't have new data, so surely the next model run will bring your snow back... but it doesn't... and you end up with a temp of 34 degrees with rain. Geez, you're giving me flashbacks from last year. I think the only model that was even close to verifying here last year was the May snow event and I gave that one a snowflakes chance in may of happening. Lol. They totally missed at least 3 times last year. It was a whole winter of hope and sadness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Fun? It's the worst hobby ever! Just wait until we have a legit threat and you find yourself waking up in the middle of the night to check the models only to see that the 6-12" of snow that you were supposed to get has turned into rain as the system is going to move farther NW. Sure, you'll hold out hope that it was just a fluke run and the next model run in 6 hours will bring your snow back.... but it doesn't... but hey that model run didn't have new data, so surely the next model run will bring your snow back... but it doesn't... and you end up with a temp of 34 degrees with rain. Works the other way though. The 2" dusting you were supposed to get turns into 8" as the low slows to a crawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 We can only hope for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Works the other way though. The 2" dusting you were supposed to get turns into 8" as the low slows to a crawl. Almost never, lol BTW, Euro and GEM back to producing snowfall again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Almost never, lol BTW, Euro and GEM back to producing snowfall again..... Have some faith JoMo! Man that wind was something this morning wasn't it? My anemometer had a peak wind gust of 47 mph. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Have some faith JoMo! Man that wind was something this morning wasn't it? My anemometer had a peak wind gust of 47 mph. Wow! I'm hoping for some early season snow but totally expecting cold air followed by a warmup followed by the cutoff kicking out of the SW and giving us rain. Yeah it was scary windy. I know Springfield had a gust of 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Since we were talking about teleconnections... This site has all of them plotted and the temperature anomalies by month associated with the positive, neutral, negative state. http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/ For the coldest... Looks like a -AO, -NAO...-EPO...-WPO +/- PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Since we were talking about teleconnections... This site has all of them plotted and the temperature anomalies by month associated with the positive, neutral, negative state. http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/ For the coldest... Looks like a -AO, -NAO...-EPO...-WPO +/- PNA Thank you for more info! I just cannot give up on the snow yet. I may be wishcasting a little but I just can't believe how solid the euro is. It really hasn't changed from run to run in the last couple of days. The GEM continuously shows 'something wintry' happening this far east. Hope its not ice. Occasionally they work a decent band of ice and sleet into the storm as well. Any thoughts on the GEM? I never really hear it being used in professional met discussion. Is it just really inaccurate or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Thank you for more info! I just cannot give up on the snow yet. I may be wishcasting a little but I just can't believe how solid the euro is. It really hasn't changed from run to run in the last couple of days. The GEM continuously shows 'something wintry' happening this far east. Hope its not ice. Occasionally they work a decent band of ice and sleet into the storm as well. Any thoughts on the GEM? I never really hear it being used in professional met discussion. Is it just really inaccurate or what? Yeah it's not very good. It gets lucky every now and then, but not very often. Tonights GFS looked really decent long range. As far as the upcoming storm systems, the GFS was colder tonight and thanks to the cutoff... It gives Western and Central Texas a good dumping of snow. Ugh... It may show some ice as well for up our way... temps are really close. Euro starts in 30 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah it's not very good. It gets lucky every now and then, but not very often. Tonights GFS looked really decent long range. As far as the upcoming storm systems, the GFS was colder tonight and thanks to the cutoff... It gives Western and Central Texas a good dumping of snow. Ugh... It may show some ice as well for up our way... temps are really close. Euro starts in 30 minutes or so. Yeah, I'm anxiously waiting on it to run so I can go to sleep. Lol. I do very much like the pattern it seems like we're headed into. I like a classic winter and I think this will be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah, I'm anxiously waiting on it to run so I can go to sleep. Lol. I do very much like the pattern it seems like we're headed into. I like a classic winter and I think this will be one. Well the 00z Euro is close enough that it still needs to be watched still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well the 00z Euro is close enough that it still needs to be watched still. Yeah. 00z GFS showing a little more agreement as well for at least 1 run. Has west TX getting hammered with 12in snow. Still looking good in the extended ranges also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z GFS brought down the Arctic in the long range as we head into December. It probably won't happen but it's much better seeing that, than seeing warmth all the way up to Canada. As far as the system in the 4-5 day range... The 12z GFS has all the snow up over Nebraska, and extreme N Kansas for the most part. The Euro is farther south covering much of Kansas in snow. We would be on the far SE edge of lighter snows if the Euro is correct. This is important because that snow reinforces the cold airmass for the next event..... (if that snow isn't there, it's probably warmer) The Euro slowly kicks out the upper low that's sitting over the SW on Monday-Tues across N OK into SW MO.... It wants to keep temps generally at or below freezing through this entire event. Let's just say that by the end of the run, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri (minus the bootheel), Arkansas (minus the far eastern edge) have all received snow. The snow maximum areas are over SW into Central KS.... and another max over SE KS/SW MO as the system lifts off to the northeast. Of course none of this will probably happen on the next run in 12 hours but it's really neat to look at, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 00z GFS is still bringing down the Arctic in the long range. 00z Euro remains somewhat consistent from it's previous run. On the far SE side of the snow in the day 4 or so system.... Then the low kicks out of the SW. It's more sheared this run and a bit warmer so the snow isn't as heavy though... Heaviest over SC Kansas and NC OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yeah. I saw that as well. I'm going to have to go ahead and discredit the gfs at this point. It seems to remain the most shaky at this time. It looks like here in eastern OK I'm going to have some sleet and freezing rain to get through before I get to see a little snow. I think it will be cool to see the short range models get their hands on it and see what they do with it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The NWS Tulsa and Springfield write-ups overnight were pretty different. Tulsa seems to be biting on the snow/sleet/fzra scenario more than Springfield is at this point. Sounds like the NAM at 84h is also starting to confirm what the Euro and Canadian are showing. The GFS is an outlier at this point. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The NWS Tulsa and Springfield write-ups overnight were pretty different. Tulsa seems to be biting on the snow/sleet/fzra scenario more than Springfield is at this point. Sounds like the NAM at 84h is also starting to confirm what the Euro and Canadian are showing. The GFS is an outlier at this point. We shall see... That's exactly what I had figured. Looks interesting to say the least. I hope we get out of the frzra pretty quickly here in NE OK but I'm afraid we may get stuck in it for at least a day before snow shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 NAM simulations are looking really good so far. Waiting on 12z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 12z GFS is being goofy! It brings the cold air mass down to OKC by 9am, and then retreats it back to NW KS and Nebraska...before bringing it back down again after most of the moisture has passed. I'm no expert, but something about that seems fishy. I am leaning towards what the NWS out of Tulsa is saying: combine Euro and Canadian as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 12z GFS is being goofy! It brings the cold air mass down to OKC by 9am, and then retreats it back to NW KS and Nebraska...before bringing it back down again after most of the moisture has passed. I'm no expert, but something about that seems fishy. I am leaning towards what the NWS out of Tulsa is saying: combine Euro and Canadian as well. Totally agree. Simple logic tells me this is not likely. If storm motion holds up in the next couple of runs of the NAM, it looks to carry the storm straight east across OK with decent amounts of snow and sufficient cold all across the state undo western AR before turning more ENE. I like this outcome a lot. I'd settle for any snow but I'd take a good 4-6in snowvember storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Major ice storm looks to be unfolding over OK at the end of the 12z NAM integration period, presumably spreading NE along I-44 afterwards. Given the depth and magnitude of the warm nose, I don't like the chances for significant snowfall accumulations anywhere close to here. Haven't looked in any detail for MO/AR, though. I think for much of OK, presuming the wetter NAM solution wins out, it will come down to the typical conundrum of where the 50-75 mile wide band of ZR sets up, with PL predominant over a large area northwest of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Major ice storm looks to be unfolding over OK at the end of the 12z NAM integration period, presumably spreading NE along I-44 afterwards. Given the depth and magnitude of the warm nose, I don't like the chances for significant snowfall accumulations anywhere close to here. Haven't looked in any detail for MO/AR, though. I think for much of OK, presuming the wetter NAM solution wins out, it will come down to the typical conundrum of where the 50-75 mile wide band of ZR sets up, with PL predominant over a large area northwest of there. It's the NAM vs GEM/GFS/Euro as the Euro backed off this run. Still may get some frozen stuff, but the amounts don't look anywhere near what the NAM shows at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It's the NAM vs GEM/GFS/Euro as the Euro backed off this run. Still may get some frozen stuff, but the amounts don't look anywhere near what the NAM shows at the end of the run. Yeah I think we need to temper the excitement a bit. After all, it is the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Trusting the NAM beyond 48 hours is a very very bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Trusting the NAM beyond 48 hours is a very very bad idea. Until we see how they handle this upcoming week, trusting any of them with these southern storms is a bad idea. Lol. BUT, that being said, I have to apply a little reasoning to this instead of just taking a model for what it says. I'd hedge bets right now for a stretch of ice 50 miles wide along I-40 with sleet and snow north of that right now. Just my thoughts at this time. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 These arctic airmasses are usually shallow and they usually move south a bit quicker than the models think they will. It looks like it wants to dive down the eastern slope of the Rockies and down into Texas.The question is how far east will the coldest of this airmass make it? I'd feel good about wintry weather prospects over the western 1/2 of KS, OK, TX. This far east.. I'm not so sure about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 These arctic airmasses are usually shallow and they usually move south a bit quicker than the models think they will. It looks like it wants to dive down the eastern slope of the Rockies and down into Texas.The question is how far east will the coldest of this airmass make it? I'd feel good about wintry weather prospects over the western 1/2 of KS, OK, TX. This far east.. I'm not so sure about. I'm skeptical that surface temperatures will be a limiting factor for any of us on here come late Friday into early Saturday. I think the bigger issue is the fact that the NAM is far wetter than the remaining guidance, as you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The discrepancy between Tulsa's morning and afternoon AFD= lol. They are suddenly advertising both chances as non-events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The discrepancy between Tulsa's morning and afternoon AFD= lol. They are suddenly advertising both chances as non-events. Lol. Yeah, I saw that. Must mean its going to snow like crazy. Haha. No wonder people are never prepared for stuff like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The discrepancy between Tulsa's morning and afternoon AFD= lol. They are suddenly advertising both chances as non-events. Tulsa rides the Euro a lot, so when it fell in line with the other globals, they backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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