JoMo Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Welcome back everyone!! Hope everyone had a great summer! I'm really enjoying this fall weather. On topic though, what the heck is up with the Euro...I got a good chuckle out of seeing this this morning! It will NOT happen...but fun to look at:) Enjoy Yep, that's the crazy stuff the Euro was showing. Develops a second system to the west and kind of meanders it to our south. The 12z GFS and its ensembles doesn't have that at all, and I'd expect the 12z Euro will come in without it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And the fantasy storm is gone of course, but there's still a chance of rain mixing with snow late Monday Night as the Arctic front blasts through. It will then be cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Ready for the cold? It's on it's way. Today's 12z GFS finally had an interesting look in the long range. It had been pretty warm and uneventful (and that still may happen) but it appears that after a brief warmup after this cold spell, the next wave of cold will hit around the 19th. This one sticks around a few days before another round of cold hits as a trough takes shape in the west and over us. It may get kind of exciting right before Thanksgiving. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Hey everyone... I am back, too. Long range is definitely looking better. Usually we can have a moderate impact winter event around Thanksgiving. That often tells us what kind of winter to expect. I hope the long range trends continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Hey everyone... I am back, too. Long range is definitely looking better. Usually we can have a moderate impact winter event around Thanksgiving. That often tells us what kind of winter to expect. I hope the long range trends continue... I hope so. I guess the 12z Euro ensembles are similar to the 12z GFS in the long range developing a trough over us and throwing cold air our way. There's still the SE Ridge which will actually help us somewhat if anything were to develop. The AO is supposed to drop like a rock which is good: The CFS backed off on the warmth and dryness across the region this winter, but it's pretty useless and changes a lot but it's nice to see anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Nice cold front overnight! Brrrrrr. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Does anyone know when Doug Heady will be issuing his winter forecast? I haven't seen it posted here so I'm assuming he hasn't done so yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Nice cold front overnight! Brrrrrr. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Does anyone know when Doug Heady will be issuing his winter forecast? I haven't seen it posted here so I'm assuming he hasn't done so yet. He usually issues it at the end of November so next week or the week after probably. Looks like temps will warm up before falling again in a week or so. Still looks like things could get more interesting around Thanksgiving into December. I've heard 1978-79 mentioned as an analog. The AO was very positive in November like it has been so far this year. For around here... Dec 1978 was somewhat uneventful after some early snow... Then the end of the month came and the last few days of December and most of January 1979 was very snowy and cold. February had snowy days as well. The AO looks to drop off a cliff after Nov 16th or so. And even if the AO is positive, this cold air intrusion we are having now is proof we can still get cold air down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Thought I would post this here as well for anyone curious about weather bell. ouamber posted one of their Euro snow maps a few posts above this. Weather Bell has a 7 day trial so I thought I would try it out today. Just talking about the models and features in general on my first 00z run of using the site. I didn't really look at the short range models since nothing is going on weather wise at this time. The user interface is not very well organized but you can probably see that here: http://models.weatherbell.com/ You would think the Euro precip/2mt maps would be under the general Euro model link, but they are on a different page than the rest of the Euro fields. Each model has multiple ways to view the maps. You can view it via thumbnails and you click on the thumbnail to get the full size view. There's a java animation of the model, and there is a PSU Ewall style of rolling your mouse over the hour and that pulls up the model panel so you can move your mouse back and forth to create a type of animation. The NAM updated at about the same rate as the MAG site. The first 192 hours of the GFS updates at the same rate, if not a little bit faster than the MAG site. After that, the rest of the run takes at least 30 minutes longer than the MAG site to complete. The GEM updates at about the same speed as other sites. The Euro updates slower than the instantweathermaps site. (of course you get maps every 6 hours instead of 24 hours on there) (and it might just be that I'm looking at precip/2mt which may update slower) There are a lot of maps to display, and I'm not going to even attempt to list them all. You get snowfall, precip, upper air, temp, and numerous other fields for each model. (GEM, Euro, GFS, NAM) The maps are beautiful. There's a ton of data available. You also get multiple views depending on the model. Some at the regional level and even some zoomed into the state and even zoomed in to the city level. Other countries, and overall many many different views. You also get the GEM/Euro/GFS Ensembles. The GEM and GFS Ensembles have more options, such as viewing individual members. It looks like the Euro ensemble just has the 16 day means in 6 hour increments. The confusing layout makes finding things like that difficult, since on one Euro page it has a set of options and then you go to another Euro page and it has different options. It should all be on one page. The Euro (and Ensemble data out to 10 days)/GFS (out to 8 days) data has station plots that have 2m max/min temps and precip plotted on a graph. There's like 2,400 stations for Euro data and 3,900 for the GFS. The CFS v2 maps update regularly but I find them somewhat useless because they appear to change wildly from run to run. The teleconnections page has: AO (GFS, GEFS, GEM) PNA, (GFS, GEFS, Euro, Euro Ensemble) NAO (GFS, GEFS, Euro, Euro Ensemble, GEM) EPO & WPO (GFS, GEFS, Euro, Euro Ensemble) The data is in graph form with previous runs also plotted. The GEFS and Euro Ensemble is plotted using the means and a range. It's a very cool, clean way of showing these indices. Overall, from my first look at the site, I like the maps and the way the data is presented for the most part. The main issue I have is with the navigation to all the different pages and why certain pages for the same model run have different options than other pages. It should all be included on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 And once again the Euro has a southern snowstorm 10 days out. However, could this be the same storm the GFS has been hinting at between the 24-28? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 No support from any other model. GEM has a weak system well north of here and GFS doesn't have anything. One GFS ensemble does show a system but it looks like rain. Unless the other models show something, it looks like just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I was wondering something. I see a lot of discussion about the AO/NAO and the potential for them to be positive this year. If positive or negative, what are the possible effects if any on the temperature/storm track here in the south central US. Is it possible that the PNA is a larger prognosticator for the weather in this part of the nation this year than the NAO? It may be a completely stupid question altogether because I do understand what the AO tends to do for temperatures here but the other 2 oscillations I'm a little more unsure of. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I was wondering something. I see a lot of discussion about the AO/NAO and the potential for them to be positive this year. If positive or negative, what are the possible effects if any on the temperature/storm track here in the south central US. Is it possible that the PNA is a larger prognosticator for the weather in this part of the nation this year than the NAO? It may be a completely stupid question altogether because I do understand what the AO tends to do for temperatures here but the other 2 oscillations I'm a little more unsure of. Thanks. Hey there. This is a subject I have been studying up on lately. A -AO helps deliver cold air farther south so it's almost always good it would seem unless it is too strong. It seems in this part of the country we can benefit from both a -NAO and a -PNA setup. I'm unsure of what values give us our best chances for winter weather, however. (My guess would be a close to neutral PNA, Neg AO, neutral to neg NAO) There is also the EPO, which, when negative works to bring cold air down as well. A -PNA typically results in a western trough and a SE ridge. This can be really good for us unless it's too negative, then we will be warm as the SE ridge flexes it's muscle. A negative NAO delivers cold air. You can read more about the indices and their effects here: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Edit: If I ever get into a completely weather OCD type of mood, I would probably look up and see what each of the indices were during some of our big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 What does "destruction is imminient," mean as the subtitle of this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 What does "destruction is imminient," mean as the subtitle of this thread? I suspect it was due to Spring Severe season coming up back when this thread was a Spring thread. I haven't seen the thread starter on in a long time. Looks like he was last online Nov 9th though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Thanks. That pretty much goes in line with what I thought. But it helped clarify as well. I hope things work out for the season this year. It is looking pretty decent so far but i have a little fear that we may get 'bookend' snows. One to start winter and one to finish. I have a bet going on at least 3 good snows and I would hate to lose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Thanks. That pretty much goes in line with what I thought. But it helped clarify as well. I hope things work out for the season this year. It is looking pretty decent so far but i have a little fear that we may get 'bookend' snows. One to start winter and one to finish. I have a bet going on at least 3 good snows and I would hate to lose! I just want to get some snow. I like some snow before Christmas to get me in the holiday spirit. I'm one of those people that likes the snow falling, but I don't need snow on the ground the entire winter. I think things are going to get a bit more exciting around Thanksgiving and into the first week or so of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I just want to get some snow. I like some snow before Christmas to get me in the holiday spirit. I'm one of those people that likes the snow falling, but I don't need snow on the ground the entire winter. I think things are going to get a bit more exciting around Thanksgiving and into the first week or so of December. I would have to agree with you on all points except that I like the snow to stick around for a day or 3 before it disappears. I wish the GFS could hurry and get its act together on this pattern we are in. Its driving me crazy. Also, any thoughts on the subtropical jet setting up around southern California and driving storms right down I-40 in the next month or so? I don't think the npac heights are going anywhere anytime soon so it seems like a definite possibility to me. Usually makes for a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I would have to agree with you on all points except that I like the snow to stick around for a day or 3 before it disappears. I wish the GFS could hurry and get its act together on this pattern we are in. Its driving me crazy. Also, any thoughts on the subtropical jet setting up around southern California and driving storms right down I-40 in the next month or so? I don't think the npac heights are going anywhere anytime soon so it seems like a definite possibility to me. Usually makes for a fun winter. That's probably up in the air.. It's been looking kind of ridgy off the west coast. As of right now, the GFS Ensemble mean has been dropping the AO to neutral to negative around the 24th and keeping it negative through Dec 1st at least. This has been really consistent. Last nights CFS keeps it negative through Dec 16th at least. (but probably too negative, and too quickly) The NAO is forecast to go negative around the 21st by both the Euro Ensembles and the GFS Ensembles. This has also been fairly consistent. CFS again keeps it negative through Dec 16th. The PNA is forecast to go positive.. perhaps by the 23rd... however, each successive run of the Euro/EPS, GFS/GEFS has had less of a positive spike. Looking at past history of the model runs, they have spiked positive only to come up well short of the forecast mark, and still in the negative range. In either case, the CFS has it hanging out around neutral in the long range. So it looks like we will get colder but timing the individual storms and where they track is up in the air. Brett Anderson has posted the Euro weeklies into Mid-December. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-outlook-into-middecember/19966475 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I would take neutral if its all we can get. At least it doesn't look look like we're going to get torched like some are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 An interesting thing to watch will be the development of what could be a snow maker in the 7-10 day range. It's showing up on both the Euro and GGEM. It looks like a cutoff gets left in the west and moves east. The GFS has the system as well, but it has another system on the Canada/US border that kind of screws things up while the GEM/Euro have NW upper flow. It would appear to just be cold enough for snow. The GEM has the heaviest snow over the NW 1/2 of OK into far NW Arkansas and points north..... while the Euro has the heaviest farther south in much of OK (minus along the KS/OK border) and into Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yeah. I was wondering about that as well. It sucks because the only model I have access to at this point is twisterdata gfs which isn't too bad sometimes I guess but others its horrible. Any euro model/gem sites or apps for android that I may look into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yeah. I was wondering about that as well. It sucks because the only model I have access to at this point is twisterdata gfs which isn't too bad sometimes I guess but others its horrible. Any euro model/gem sites or apps for android that I may look into? You can get the Euro (850 MB temps/winds, 500 MB heights, Pressure) from: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php And you can get the GEM (basically everything you could want) from: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb You can get the GFS Ensemble members from: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 That's awesome. Thank you! Yeah, the pre-thanksgiving storm has the looks of a classic snow maker at certain points but there's a lot of time between now and then so it will be fun to watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 NWS Tulsa starting to make mention of a winter type event coming Friday. Not enough detail yet but it is nice to see it in the forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 NWS Tulsa starting to make mention of a winter type event coming Friday. Not enough detail yet but it is nice to see it in the forecast discussion. It really is great to see. Even if this event doesn't pan out, we still have reason to be optimistic about the upcoming pattern. Our local mets seem to be taking this chance fairly seriously. Climo is certainly more supportive now and the pattern looks more conducive to a winter precip event. Trying to keep my excitement at bay, but I'm liking what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The trend definitely needs to be monitored as we head into next weekend. My sister is having a baby on Friday so it would only make sense for their to be some sort of calamity around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 NWS Tulsa starting to make mention of a winter type event coming Friday. Not enough detail yet but it is nice to see it in the forecast discussion. Unfortunately it looks like the airmass isn't going to be cold enough this far east for snow. Temps have been trending warmer and the Euro keeps the snow across all but far SE KS and the NW 1/3rd or so of OK. Much less of it this run as well. It plants a cutoff over N Mexico for a long time giving SW Texas and eventually central Texas snow..... lol On to the next model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I would have to agree. This is the type of pattern that snow lovers in northeast Oklahoma like myself love. Slow moving cold core cutoff lows. Hopefully there are a lot of them coming. I don't think cold air or available moisture will be a concern as we head further into December. The one concern that will stay in my mind until at least mid January is having only shallow cold air masses being overran by gulf moisture plume. I know that thought is a little out of range for the medium range thought but I definitely feel that its a risk worth mentioning in this pattern. Ice is not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Sorry. Above was in reply to Westhope 84. JoMo, hoping the models are just a little west biased at the moment. I don't really foresee the rich moisture being that far west. I've been wrong a time or two but I think in a day or two of runs, we should see it shift back east some. I really can't thank you enough for the resources you listed for me. Makes this a heck of a lot more fun. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Sorry. Above was in reply to Westhope 84. JoMo, hoping the models are just a little west biased at the moment. I don't really foresee the rich moisture being that far west. I've been wrong a time or two but I think in a day or two of runs, we should see it shift back east some. I really can't thank you enough for the resources you listed for me. Makes this a heck of a lot more fun. :-) Fun? It's the worst hobby ever! Just wait until we have a legit threat and you find yourself waking up in the middle of the night to check the models only to see that the 6-12" of snow that you were supposed to get has turned into rain as the system is going to move farther NW. Sure, you'll hold out hope that it was just a fluke run and the next model run in 6 hours will bring your snow back.... but it doesn't... but hey that model run didn't have new data, so surely the next model run will bring your snow back... but it doesn't... and you end up with a temp of 34 degrees with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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