Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Good I hope it all verifies! This is boring so far lol. Springfield mentioning some light snow/mix maybe from late christmas evening into monday morning, but over to rain monday morning. Wouldnt that be cool if we could get some more flurries christmas night lol. Dont know when I'll be back on here so merry christmas to you and everyone else on the forum!!! The 12z NAM (I know, I know... it's the NAM) is picking up on that feature, too, with some minor accumulations possible SE of I-44. I haven't checked yet to see if the GFS is doing anything with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The 12z NAM (I know, I know... it's the NAM) is picking up on that feature, too, with some minor accumulations possible SE of I-44. I haven't checked yet to see if the GFS is doing anything with that. Yea i think springfield was saying the gfs was also I cant remember now sorry. The nam really isnt bad bad when its within its time range but I noticed anything beyond 12-24 hours out forget it ya know lol. Would be neat to see though for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 0z NAM bumping up the snow east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 0z NAM bumping up the snow east of us. Eh, not sure about temps, but the 00z GFS did slow things down and push the system a bit farther south, and strange things happen under strong upper lows but we need cold air! 00z GGEM @ 84 looks somewhat interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Eh, not sure about temps, but the 00z GFS did slow things down and push the system a bit farther south, and strange things happen under strong upper lows but we need cold air! 00z GGEM @ 84 looks somewhat interesting Yes and colder than the 12z GEM for the same time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks like this storm is stronger than expected back in W. Texas. I've lived in NW Ark for 36 years and history says this is a decent setup for a few inches of snow. I know the 12z models still didn't latch on to snow for us but my guy says this may change. That's my best attempt at Christmas cheer! Thoughts from someone smarter than me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks like this storm is stronger than expected back in W. Texas. I've lived in NW Ark for 36 years and history says this is a decent setup for a few inches of snow. I know the 12z models still didn't latch on to snow for us but my guy says this may change. That's my best attempt at Christmas cheer! Thoughts from someone smarter than me? I think it's an interesting situation to watch over the next day or so. 12z Euro is cooler with surface temps when compared to the 12z GFS but it doesn't have as much precip. Strange things happen under strong upper lows though, you can get a changeover with marginal conditions due to dynamic cooling and other processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Meanwhile, what a beautful day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 yeah it's nice out there. It's quiet enough to hear a pin drop, or me yelling at the Chiefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The 384 12z/18z GFS today are showing what is probably the expected pattern change around Jan 9th. The GFS typically goes bonkers when the pattern is expected to change. This fits well with what HM, Euro Weeklies, Joplinmet, etc.. think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 00z NAM really slowed the system down and is farther south. Shows snowfall in S MO and N AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 If we could get the NAM to crank up just a bit further west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 00z GFS has a bit of snow in N AR, S MO. Not a big deal overall but it would be pretty cool to see some snow. Merry Christmas from Joplin everyone! Edit: NORAD said Santa was just here... I got coal. "Current location Joplin, Missouri, United States" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas to all my weather friends!!!! God bless you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Many thanks to all the posters here who help make this a useful and enjoyable place to be! Merry Christmas and Seasons Greetings to all! And for all the snow lovers, here is my Christmas wish for you....... :snowing: :snowing: :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Many thanks to all the posters here who help make this a useful and enjoyable place to be! Merry Christmas and Seasons Greetings to all! And for all the snow lovers, here is my Christmas wish for you....... :snowing: :snowing: :snowing: Merry Christmas everybody! Despite all our wishes for snow and cold it's hard not to like this beautiful day out today. Everybody have a wonderful day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Hope you all have had a Merry Christmas. I am hoping we see some flakes here tomorrow. Best bet looks to be just east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looking like we might be in better shape for snow here in Perryville, MO south of St. Louis. Still expecting only a dusting followed by rain. We'll see. Merry Christmas all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looking like we might be in better shape for snow here in Perryville, MO south of St. Louis. Still expecting only a dusting followed by rain. We'll see. Merry Christmas all! 00z NAM wasn't as into it as it was in previous runs, but it would probably be the kind of snow that looks cool coming down but doesn't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Had a bit of sleet this morning due to evaporative cooling. We have warmed to 37º here now. I hope I get to see a few flakes later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Lol dont know if I've ever seen probability maps quite that extreme this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yeah, it may be wrong as the 12z Euro wants to bring down some cold air and a trough into the eastern 1/2 of the country. The 12z GFS isn't as strong with it. We'd be on the west edge which means colder air but not much else probably but don't have precip maps that go out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 00z Euro is persistent with the deep trough. Quite a huge difference in temps between the 00z GFS and 00z Euro would be present. Looking at hour 168, there would probably be a 20+ temp difference between the Euro and GFS in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 In the near term, there are huge differences between the 00/12z GFS and the 00z Euro. These are 850 temps from the 00z GFS and 00z Euro @ 168. 00z Euro: 00z GFS: The GGEM lost the trough last night and had more of a 00z GFS look to it, but today's 12z run has the trough back. It's interesting to see such huge differences and I'm curious to see if the 12z Euro backs down. Around Jan 9th, the 12z GFS is still indicating a pattern change possibility, it takes a few days for it to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12z Euro held. Either the Euro or GFS is going to be extremely wrong even as close to 96 hours out. 12z GFS 850 MB temps at 144: Euro same time. If you extend that out to 240. Euro still has a trough in the east while the GFS has much of the nation basking in zonal flow. 240 GFS: 240 Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NWS SGF mentions Cross Polar Flow in their write up this afternoon. Let's hope the Euro wins the battle!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NWS SGF mentions Cross Polar Flow in their write up this afternoon. Let's hope the Euro wins the battle!!! Yeah it's a weird setup. GGEM/EURO in one camp.. GFS/UKMET in another camp. The trough positioning doesn't really help us in the precip chances department no matter what solution though. In other news, 18z GFS, you so crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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