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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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tornado warning here in fayetteville.....i hear no sirens which makes me nervous after relying on them back home in missouri....just happened to check nws and noticed the warning. Really need to get a shelter for the parents here!!!! Really scary to not have a siren that can wake me up while sleeping....gonna go outside and have a looksy and check the radazr.....mind my typing guys i hate this tablet!!! lol

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Same thing every night it seems with an MCS rolling through. This is typical in June and early July sometimes but not in late July and August. Everything is green and I have to mow more often, usually by this time everything is brown, and we'd be waiting for it to green up in September or October. 

 

I'm a little worried all this rain now may switch us back to a dry spell by this winter. The models are showing neutral to possibly weak El-Nino conditions this winter so that may help. 

 

I'm glad football is starting again, looking for my Chiefs to have a good start with Andy Reid... wooooooooooo!

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Yes, what is it with the MCS highway running through S. MO on a daily basis?  We get our hits, but not like the day in day out storms you guys get.

 

I am trying to figure which model has the best handle on these nightly MCS events....I am thinking maybe the HRRR????

 

And as for Reid "saving" the Chiefs....that may take a while.

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Yes, what is it with the MCS highway running through S. MO on a daily basis?  We get our hits, but not like the day in day out storms you guys get.

 

I am trying to figure which model has the best handle on these nightly MCS events....I am thinking maybe the HRRR????

 

And as for Reid "saving" the Chiefs....that may take a while.

 

A front that's hung up and northwest flow off the Rockies. This is June MCS type weather.  Looks like you may have got some rain this evening but looks like I'll get more though. Although the rain did develop farther south so maybe you'll get it all. I'm getting kind of tired of it, and I never thought I'd say that. 

 

The HRRR has been doing the best with the nightly storms.

 

And, I think the Chiefs have talent. I think the WR position is lacking though and hopefully they can find some better receivers. 

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Just an incredible stretch of wet weather for sure.  Not sure I've seen anything this wet, this late in the summer.  Up to 14" IMBY now since all of this began back on July 20, which is about 1/3 of our annual avg.  I'm like JoMo I hope this doesn't affect us negatively come winter after having all of this late summer rain.  Maybe this will be a repeating pattern of colder and wetter than normal the next few months.

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Just an incredible stretch of wet weather for sure.  Not sure I've seen anything this wet, this late in the summer.  Up to 14" IMBY now since all of this began back on July 20, which is about 1/3 of our annual avg.  I'm like JoMo I hope this doesn't affect us negatively come winter after having all of this late summer rain.  Maybe this will be a repeating pattern of colder and wetter than normal the next few months.

Yea man this is nuts for sure, I have never seen this much rain out here since moving back to missouri(well now arkansas) 8yrs ago! Here in fayetteville has been just tons and tons of rain!!! Bellavista which is right on the border has been getting hit so hard, we drive up there alot and the creeks up there are so flooded and sometimes up to the edge of the highway. Should have seen the golf courses they were just under water, all you could see was the tee poles or whatever they are lol.

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  • 1 month later...

Happy Fall! 

 

Now it's time to get ready for winter. CirrusWx and WxSouth released outlooks on this winter, both had an east coast trough look to them with a west coast ridge. Not the greatest thing to see for winter around these parts as we get NW-flow from that and everything happens to our south and east across SE MO and NE AR and points east. It'll just depend on where the ridge sets up if that happens. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

2007-2008 wasn't a great year for snowfall.  Tulsa only had 3.3 inches that winter. 

 

Outside of that news I'm excited for winter to get here.  This forum has been dead for too long.  We need to spur some excitement and conversation! 

 

Good luck to everyone.  I hope this doesn't jinx us all but surely this winter can't be as bad as the last two...

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2007-2008 wasn't a great year for snowfall.  Tulsa only had 3.3 inches that winter. 

 

Outside of that news I'm excited for winter to get here.  This forum has been dead for too long.  We need to spur some excitement and conversation! 

 

Good luck to everyone.  I hope this doesn't jinx us all but surely this winter can't be as bad as the last two...

 

yes, it's time to begin the migration back to the board for winter. lol

 

2007-2008 was the year of the ice storm up this way. We had several big ones. A couple snow events as well. 

 

I'd like 2002-2003, that was a good year for snow, but I'd take 2007-2008 for some winter excitement.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's model silly season. The 00z GFS paints a nice pre-halloween snowstorm the day before Halloween for OK/AR/MO. 

You've got to be kidding lol!!! Its a bit to early for this jomo take it down a notch there man haha j/k. It did snow in davenport today, my friend up there sent me a few pics!!! I was in utter shock, leaves still on the trees and all. The flakes were as round as soda pop cans! Not sure how much he got though maybe and inch or 2.

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It's gone now of course but it's neat to see. I want an early start to winter. The end of November and into December would be nice. It looks like we're going to be getting a lot of rain around Halloween time. Not a good time for rain with the trick or treaters. 

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The halloween rain has been plentiful for sure.  November is on our doorstep.  What is everyone's take on the coming winter?  I'm seeing a lot of mixed signals from all I'm reading.  Doug seems to think we could have a decent winter so that's a good sign.

 

I'm not sure. It was looking pretty good early on and now it's more uncertain. It does appear it will be another ENSO neutral year. Some of the big name mets on the forum have been predicting a +AO this winter so that doesn't bode too well for us but if we get a -EPO we can also get cold air so I don't know. I do know the GFS keeps us fairly active with rain off and on through the middle of November with a trough hanging out over the west. There is talk of a SE Ridge this winter as well, which can be good for us as long as it isn't too strong. 

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I'm not sure. It was looking pretty good early on and now it's more uncertain. It does appear it will be another ENSO neutral year. Some of the big name mets on the forum have been predicting a +AO this winter so that doesn't bode too well for us but if we get a -EPO we can also get cold air so I don't know. I do know the GFS keeps us fairly active with rain off and on through the middle of November with a trough hanging out over the west. There is talk of a SE Ridge this winter as well, which can be good for us as long as it isn't too strong.

Yes I think we will avg out ok this yr. Not a bonus yr in snow but some decent shots at least. If this current pattern is any indication it could be a good sign IMO.
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Chris from Tulsa checking in for the winter.

 

Interesting pattern we're in. A local meteorologist is starting to discount the CPC's prediction of above-normal temps over the next couple of weeks. Models are starting to paint a chillier picture for our neck of the woods (hallelujah).

 

Anyway, it seems like there is a particularly high amount of uncertainty regarding what type of winter we'll have. It's certainly promising to be experiencing the active storm track through this part of the country.

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Chris from Tulsa checking in for the winter.

 

Interesting pattern we're in. A local meteorologist is starting to discount the CPC's prediction of above-normal temps over the next couple of weeks. Models are starting to paint a chillier picture for our neck of the woods (hallelujah).

 

Anyway, it seems like there is a particularly high amount of uncertainty regarding what type of winter we'll have. It's certainly promising to be experiencing the active storm track through this part of the country.

I totally concur on your statement about the recent storm track.  The long range continues to look colder and stormy across the mid-section of the country.  If this continues, and the winter has any memory at all of this time of year, we could see a wild ride this winter.  I'm pretty optomistic at this point.  Of course I always am before the winter.

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I totally concur on your statement about the recent storm track.  The long range continues to look colder and stormy across the mid-section of the country.  If this continues, and the winter has any memory at all of this time of year, we could see a wild ride this winter.  I'm pretty optomistic at this point.  Of course I always am before the winter.

 

The recent storm track is NW of the area though. If that continues we get stuck on the rainy side of things. The CFS v2 and Euro Weeklies have been pretty useless. No idea what's going to happen as we go into Dec. 

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00z GFS has a very very strong cold front slamming through around the 12th. Looks like there would be flurries or drizzle along with it. Interesting. 

 

EDIT: 00z Euro has the cold as well.... and some other crazy stuff right after.... 

 

Looks interesting.

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Welcome back everyone!! Hope everyone had a great summer! I'm really enjoying this fall weather.  On topic though, what the heck is up with the Euro...I got a good chuckle out of seeing this this morning! It will NOT happen...but fun to look at:) Enjoy

 

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I'm the most excited that finally we all can gather around again and pray like crazy for something good to happen.  Regardless, it will be fun to watch and discuss.  I love logging in and seeing multiple posts to read through.  Let's keep it going.  I add absolutely ZERO value from a weather perspective but I'm a weather nerd so I'll be on here daily checking out the latest updates from JoMo and company! 

 

Good luck to everyone!!! 

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