Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12z GFS has some snow again around the 18th or so.... weird.

 

I am newbie to this regional forum (as my name suggests, I am from NJ), but I am in Oklahoma City for a few days, and I was shocked to catch the tail end of the weather on the local news.  They were talking about snow by Thursday getting almost (not quite but almost) as far south and east as Oklahoma City.  I only had time for a quick glance at the models but it does appear to be a (slim) possibility.  I am very curious to see if it pans out.         

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am newbie to this regional forum (as my name suggests, I am from NJ), but I am in Oklahoma City for a few days, and I was shocked to catch the tail end of the weather on the local news.  They were talking about snow by Thursday getting almost (not quite but almost) as far south and east as Oklahoma City.  I only had time for a quick glance at the models but it does appear to be a (slim) possibility.  I am very curious to see if it pans out.         

Welcome to the crazy Midwest weather! Im from jersey also, millville to be exact(not to far from cherry hill). Moved here about 6yrs ago, weather is definately nutty out this way for sure!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Slight risk for severe weather today. Looks like hail should be the biggest threat again today. Thoughts?

 

Also the risk of an isolated tornado it looks like, but I think that would be confined to NE OK and SE KS early on in the event.

 

The big question mark is Wednesday with the GFS/NAM returning the warm front north, and the Euro pushing the front across as a squall line. If the GFS/NAM are right, we may be in trouble. But my money is on the Euro right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the setup is coming together for a big severe weather event on Wednesday, especially across OK. It is not every day you see probabilities like this coming out from the SPC during a day three outlook: day3prob_0730.gif

 

There are some differences in the models that will hopefully be ironed out in the next few runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Tulsa's afternoon discussion:

 

JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE..
BOTH GFS / ECMWF BRING ANOTHER DEEP H5 LOW INTO
THE PLAINS. GFS CENTERED MORE IN CENTRAL PLAINS
00Z MAY 3RD. ECMWF DIRECTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. HOPE
GFS IS CLOSER..OR WE`LL BE LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW.

 

...Are you kidding me? If this happens, it will be the greatest day in my weather-geek life.

 

What a strange pattern.

 

Can you imagine the temperatures we would be experiencing with these departures occuring in late January?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone have any thoughts on the rain Friday/Saturday?  I'm playing golf in Hot Springs first thing Saturday morning.  Sounds like it may be a little wet early on but pushing out.  What are the chances of teeing off at 8 am? 

 

And snow would be crazy in May!  Even if it doesn't stick.  That would be nuts.  I read Tulsa's comments this afternoon at work and laughed.  Stranger things have happened and nothing surprises me anymore.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is snow really possible? Is the NAM out to lunch again? Is the GFS trending toward the NAM a head fake? Find out next time on "As The Model Runs Turn."

LOL springfield is saying a possible change from rain to snow on thursday evening into friday morning am before changing back over to rain. CRAZYYYY weather for sure, and its gonna get downright cold for may!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, it is really quiet in here. I figured it would be hopping with this potentially historic event on the verge of unfolding. Or maybe it is just these pain meds from my surgery talking. :) Either way, it will be interesting to see what plays out.

 

NW... I will driving through your area tomorrow up 13 toward Clinton for the weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, it is really quiet in here. I figured it would be hopping with this potentially historic event on the verge of unfolding. Or maybe it is just these pain meds from my surgery talking. :) Either way, it will be interesting to see what plays out.

 

NW... I will driving through your area tomorrow up 13 toward Clinton for the weekend.

Be careful cause heading north and west there will be more of a snow impact. Im right on the county line here almost and thats where the winter weather advisory starts from st,clair northwards. Springfield says 1-3 inches possible lol. They also said the snow may be really heavy so yep really be careful ok! I know polk county here does a horrid job on roads and the overpass right by our rental here gets bad quickly. Im right at the humansville/caplinger mills overpass. Beep your horn tomorrow Ill probly be able to hear you lol beings I can see that overpass from our rental. Oh and also be careful on 13 these people drive like maniacs in the snow lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah, I gotta say it's pretty crazy that I'm probably going to get some snow on May 3rd. Doesn't seem real. 

 

You guys are under the H5 low. Good chance you'll be able to get something on grassy surfaces before the sun angle melts it during the day tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The fact that we're even talking snow much less under a WWA is nuts.  Even if it doesn't amount to anything it's quite amazing.  I have barely seen 1 inch of snow all season long as you all know from my constant whining.  How hilarious would it be for my largest snowfall to be on May 3rd!!!  Even if it's on the grass that's still cool.  I barely need an inch to double what I've seen so far!  LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Tulsa:

 

DISCUSSION...
IT IS OFFICIAL...SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT WFO TULSA THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LATEST TRACE OF SNOW ON RECORD! SOME OTHER REPORTS
OF SLEET OR SNOW AROUND THE AREA AS WELL MAINLY WITHIN HEAVIER
BANDS OF PRECIP. SNOW ALSO REPORTED IN LAST HOUR IN SE KANSAS
WITH SECOND BAND OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH.

DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING AS MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE
EAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL NO GUARANTEE THAT THE COLUMN WILL COOL
ENOUGH AT THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BUT
DO THINK MORE SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF PRECIP STAND A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. MOST RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
TARGETED EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS CONSISTENTLY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WHILE THE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY MUCH TOO
HIGH...WE ARE CONCERNED ENOUGH ABOUT AT LEAST LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF FAR NW ARKANSAS. EVEN THOUGH TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY AS SFC TEMPS STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE DAMAGING. THUS
WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA AND
MUCH OF NW ARKANSAS...KNOWING FULL WELL THAT YES...IT IS MAY.

ALREADY SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WHILE THE LOW
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF AND PUTS THE BRAKES ON THAT...FELL ENOUGH
CLEARING FROM TULSA WEST TONIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO 32 OR A
LITTLE BELOW. THUS WILL UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING...INCLUDING
TULSA METRO. THAT WOULD BREAK A RECORD FOR LATEST FREEZE AT TUL BY
ONE DAY...PREVIOUS MAY 2 1909. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
AREAS FARTHER EAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE AT THIS TIME...HOPEFULLY EVENING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON IT.

UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE US BEHIND KEEPING A VERY COOL AND
WET REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY. AS THE LOW
WRAPS UP IT WILL TAP BETTER MOISTURE TO THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW ON THE GULF COAST...THUS WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY. WITH UPPER LOW MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD...SNOW POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN SOME AREAS AFTER DARK. FREEZE WATCH WILL BE LEFT FOR
NW ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...