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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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yeah, I'm more interested in the weekend system as it'll have more cold air to work with and a strengthening low pressure area. The farther north you are the better chance of snow you will have with this next system.

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The drought will be gone soon enough. Seeing multiple systems in the long range taking a track pretty far south so we'll get a lot of rain coming up. 

 

Doug's forecasting a slightly above average Spring with 8-10 severe weather events, a summer that won't be as hot as last year, and next year will be wetter.

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Oh i love the sound of a not as hot summer! I love winter, fall and spring but hate the heat and humidity out here!!! My jersey blood still hasn't adjusted even after 7 yrs now lol

 

Doug sounds like hes getting really interested in saturday night/sundays storm. So whats all your totals looking like so far this season guys? Im siting just shy of 11.5" now! Amazing what a few weeks can do out here.

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Oh i love the sound of a not as hot summer! I love winter, fall and spring but hate the heat and humidity out here!!! My jersey blood still hasn't adjusted even after 7 yrs now lol

 

Doug sounds like hes getting really interested in saturday night/sundays storm. So whats all your totals looking like so far this season guys? Im siting just shy of 11.5" now! Amazing what a few weeks can do out here.

 

Yeah it looks like you'll be in a good spot for the next storm. It needs to come farther south for me though or I'll end up with just a little bit again.

 

NW Arkansas will probably get screwed again.

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Yeah it looks like you'll be in a good spot for the next storm. It needs to come farther south for me though or I'll end up with just a little bit again.

 

NW Arkansas will probably get screwed again.

 

Why do I even bother to watch anymore?   :axe: 

 

It snowed pretty good in Rogers/Bentonville today but was still about 33 or 34 degrees so not much stuck.  Just barely covered the ground.  I'm now sitting at .00000000001 inches for the year.  LOL.   Better than a shutout. 

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Why do I even bother to watch anymore?   :axe: 

 

It snowed pretty good in Rogers/Bentonville today but was still about 33 or 34 degrees so not much stuck.  Just barely covered the ground.  I'm now sitting at .00000000001 inches for the year.  LOL.   Better than a shutout. 

Bleh I need to let that reality sink into my forgetfull brain lol, I will soon be living down there and its looking more likely gonna be in rogers or springdale.

 

And Jomo did you see dougs recent posting of his snowmap for saturday nights storm? Id like to see it come south a lil more lol, Im right on that darn edge again of 6-10, 3-6 inches on his map. Hes been pretty good with his totals with all these storms so far! We picked up about 3-3.5" here, I heard bolivar(about 16 miles south of me) got like 5-7" lol

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Looks like down here we're gonna be on the sidelines again with this weekend storm. Picked up close to an inch yesterday as most of the snow fell N and E of here. So got missed to the east on the last one and gonna miss to the north on the next one. I'm ready for severe season. BTW my unofficial total this winter is right at 11" - counting our sleet storm in February.

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12z Euro is a bit farther south with the weekend system when compared to the NAM/GFS. 

 

Snowfall for here (including sleet/ice) is 5.7" for the Winter. 

I didnt include my sleet so tack another almost 3" of that slop onto my 11.5" so far. Is such a late outbreak of all this stuff it seems to me i dont know. Hopefully things keep tracking further south, to be honest Im definately satisfied for the season now.

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GFS appears to be the northern outlier now among the globals.  Both the Ukie and GEM bring the deform area across S MO pretty nicely.  Not sure if the Euro is that far S or not.

 

yeah SGF is going with the farther south Euro and mentioned a heavier burst farther south as well.

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yeah SGF is going with the farther south Euro and mentioned a heavier burst farther south as well.

My problem is this sounds to happen now closer to sunrise instead of overnight now on saturday, stupid daytime is gonna hurt us for sure....my gut tells me this has got to happen at night now or we are screwed. And the temp high for sunday here is 34....unless a wetbulb can happen and some mega heavy snows take place I just dont see much accumulating again.

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yeah, we shall see. There may be some heavy amounts near the upper low itself. I don't think you are in too bad a spot up there.

 

And MoWeatherGuy... I do think Severe Season will start around April 1st or certainly the first week of April sometime. 

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06z GFS brought things south a bit more.

 

I really do think Spring will start around April 1st, and the 6z GFS still has an active pattern.  This is the kind of pattern the CFS v2 showed happening back in December and January that never happened with storms forming on the Lee of the Rockies and moving south or over us.

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I think this storm has a chance of verifying even further south.  The latest SREF has a bullseye coming right over the SW corner of MO tomorrow morning.  The NAM has been north on recent storms.  The GEM/UK are both holding their ground on a southern path of the deform snows tomorrow AM.  I think there may be some S adjustment to snow totals later today per official forecasts.

 

And the latest RAP digs the upper low much more S than the NAM by 6z tonite. 

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Tulsa, haha. Latest GFS scary white. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013.DISCUSSION...NOT QUITE A STELLAR DAY TODAY.  THICK CLOUD COVER ANDAPPROACHING PRECIP WILL LIMIT MUCH IF ANY TEMPERATURERANGE. LOWERED MAX TEMP SEVERAL DEGREES ALL LOCATIONS.RAISED POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES FAR SOUTH AS NORTH TXTHUNDER ALREADY ACROSS THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OK.LATEST GFS SCARY WHITE. PUBLIC FORECASTER WILL WRESTLENEXT 5 HOURS WITH INCOMING DATA TO ARRIVE AT A CREDIBLEFORECAST SOLUTION GIVEN GREAT MODEL VARIANCE.GW

 

GFS_3_2013032312_F30_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

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