JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 00z NAM is in and it says... This sucks. It did move things south a bit. Looks to be on the line here, still. I think NwWhiteOut looks a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 00z NAM is in and it says... This sucks. It did move things south a bit. Looks to be on the line here, still. I think NwWhiteOut looks a little better. Its the nam though which I dont have much faith in lol. Hell at this point though ill take any models south shift haha Man dougs newest post on facebook(well nick was posting it) has me now in the 5-8" area.....just barely but im in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What are everyone's thoughts this morning? Is there a chance the low is tracking further south? It's hard to tell on radar/satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I was just wondering the same thing. It's really hard to tell on satellite...almost looks due east. Maybe some other trained mod can let us know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ugh, the differences on the snow output of the 12z NAM/GFS are crazy for this event to be ongoing. GFS is farther SE with the snow while the NAM bumped the snow back to the NW. The difference for some places (like here) is < 1" on the NAM up to 3-6" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Maybe I'm being an eternal optimist but it still looks like the low is heading south and east. There's still a long way to go before it gets close enough to tell, but if it can track 75-100 miles or more south of Fort Smith we should be in decent shape. That's assuming we don't get dry slotted as TUL NWS suggested earlier. How's that for ignorant bliss optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There's the GFS SE shift. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This jog SE is fantastic. This is such an incredibly dynamic system. Who knows what will happen. I wouldn't be too surprised if we overperform in the TUL-JLN corridor. How this SE movement of the low will affect our region's relationship to any drier air being pulled up remains to be seen. I, for one, am optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tulsa has new briefing out. http://ht.ly/i1Z3g Hint: Don't get too excited. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOST IMPORTANTLY...PAWNEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA...HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD WARNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH PRECIP TYPES WEST OF THE AREA...INDICATE A LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS OF OSAGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...ROBBING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO THE AREA MOST AFFECTED BY THE DRY SLOT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF EITHER LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME PERIODS AFFECTED. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH DESPITE THE DRIZZLE INCLUSION...AS THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD WITH THE WRAP AROUND WHERE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE. AS A RESULT...NO OTHER HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOST IMPORTANTLY...PAWNEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA...HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD WARNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH PRECIP TYPES WEST OF THE AREA...INDICATE A LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS OF OSAGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...ROBBING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO THE AREA MOST AFFECTED BY THE DRY SLOT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF EITHER LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME PERIODS AFFECTED. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH DESPITE THE DRIZZLE INCLUSION...AS THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD WITH THE WRAP AROUND WHERE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE. AS A RESULT...NO OTHER HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It's snowing(mixed with rain) in Pittsburg, KS. That wasn't expected this early. Looks like wet-bulbing as Joplin is falling as well. Down to 35 outside, when models say we should be higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 does that mean more snow or ice for us JOMO ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Just had a heavier shower come through Rogers. We were at 41 and dropped to 36 within 10 minutes or less. This was unofficial since it's from my car but it's always been pretty accurate. We're definitely not making it up to 46 like NWS had forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still reporting heavy snow in Pitt that switches between rain and snow depending on how intense the precip is. The 18z NAM 6 hour forecast shoved the 850 MB line farther east. Rain mixing with snow here in Joplin as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 nasty line of tstorms in ar and la. Didn't see a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Rain is mixing with Sleet here in Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still reporting heavy snow in Pitt that switches between rain and snow depending on how intense the precip is. The 18z NAM 6 hour forecast shoved the 850 MB line farther east. Rain mixing with snow here in Joplin as well. Crazy!!!! Its sleeting here in the more intense waves that come and go....when its light its rain and the temp spikes back up. The intense bands of sleet it drops suddenly. Gonna be hard to nail down what this storm does i think, could possibly do anything anywhere maybe lol. There was no mention of sleet just rain over to snow tonight. Currently 37 outside with a real light rain. When that sleet happens i drop to around 33-34 real fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 nasty line of tstorms in ar and la. Didn't see a thread. andyhb was talking a bit about that in the blizzard thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39477-february-25th-26th-plains-blizzard/page-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Crazy!!!! Its sleeting here in the more intense waves that come and go....when its light its rain and the temp spikes back up. The intense bands of sleet it drops suddenly. Gonna be hard to nail down what this storm does i think, could possibly do anything anywhere maybe lol. There was no mention of sleet just rain over to snow tonight. Currently 37 outside with a real light rain. When that sleet happens i drop to around 33-34 real fast There was under-sampled dry air present so it's wetbulbing down. You will probably end up with a decent amount of snow out of this system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There was under-sampled dry air present so it's wetbulbing down. You will probably end up with a decent amount of snow out of this system though. Yea forecast ammounts vary from place to place, 4-8 from some 2-5 from others and 1-3 from springfield. Will wait and see. I dont know if its just me and wishful thinking but looking at different radar composites and satelite imagery etc it looks to be wobbling more south southeast then progged? But then again I dont understand everything in details of how these monsters work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Springfield updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Springfield updated. Yep and wow man that 6-10" is knocking on my door now on that map. Kc's map says 4-6 for me and so close to their 6-8. My temp is still falling now down to 33.8 and raining....was snowing heavily for about 30 minutes. It keeps changing so rapidly back and forth between snow or rain. Just insane!!! I dont know whether to keep posting in this forum or the other its so confusing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Springfield updated. From reading through the last couple of pages of this thread, seems the trends are in you favor down there right now. Whatcha ya thinking? Believe it? Good luck to you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 From reading through the last couple of pages of this thread, seems the trends are in you favor down there right now. Whatcha ya thinking? Believe it? Good luck to you all. I think I'm going to be right on the edge, which sucks... lol I'd rather be solidly in the areas getting snowfall. Plus, I'm not sure how much of an impact the dryslot is going to have. It gets really close, if not, over me based on the latest RAP. Nw, min look like they'll be getting some good snow. Oh and here's Doug's latest forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yep just saw dougs....6-8 according to him. Hes usually almost spot on too, at least so far he has been. Hes one hell of a meteoroligist! He was posting in here but hasnt been, wonder why...maybe just to busy with all the blogs he does who knows. I cant tell if thats 2-4 or 4-6 for you though jomo lol...people saying the same thing on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think I'm going to be right on the edge, which sucks... lol I'd rather be solidly in the areas getting snowfall. Plus, I'm not sure how much of an impact the dryslot is going to have. It gets really close, if not, over me based on the latest RAP. Nw, min look like they'll be getting some good snow. Oh and here's Doug's latest forecast: I know about the riding the edge, lol, never fun. Hopefully the dry slot moves south of you...then things can get a lot better. Hang in there, and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yep just saw dougs....6-8 according to him. Hes usually almost spot on too, at least so far he has been. Hes one hell of a meteoroligist! He was posting in here but hasnt been, wonder why...maybe just to busy with all the blogs he does who knows. I cant tell if thats 2-4 or 4-6 for you though jomo lol...people saying the same thing on facebook I'm thinking 3" here, although it could be more or less since there will be a tight gradient. The RAP keeps playing with more north and south and where it places the redeveloping deformation band and the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm thinking 3" here, although it could be more or less since there will be a tight gradient. The RAP keeps playing with more north and south and where it places the redeveloping deformation band and the dryslot. I dont know man I got a gut feeling about this one in a good way lol. But the dryslot is always showing its ugly face, i noticed last time it was a big donut hole right around us lol...went from me down to you and east a lil bit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That puppy needs to keep pushing east and south...Tulsa is gonna be cutting it too dang close!!! I live directly on 1-44...so it needs to push south!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The trend is our friend as long as it keeps trending that way. RAP seems to indicate so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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