NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Quick peek at the 00z NAM reveals the continued southward trend, colder surface temps. Yea man this was something kc was mentioning as well in their late afternoon disco. Radar is really filling in along the immediate border it looks like, it just looks like everything is going due east(was watching the local radar pop up on tv during a show) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That's what we call a warm nose at 850 MB on a 60 kt jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well, the OKC metro is 0 for 2 this month on significant threats that have materialized on the short-term models ~6-12 hours out, so I'm not sure why I even bothered looking again tonight. But the RAP and HRRR are yet again putting forecasters on edge, this time for icing prospects. Forecast soundings between 9z-15z look convincingly in the ZR category, especially from about I-44 NW to El Reno and Guthrie, and there are persistent convective QPF signals coinciding with that spatial and temporal window.With surface temperatures and dew points hovering just above freezing almost statewide, I'll take a skeptical wait-and-see approach on whether low-level backing overnight can really sneak subfreezing air south of the sleet profiles in N OK and beneath the stronger/deeper warm nose down here. If so, it could get nasty for someone, though I imagine it will take some "luck" to end up in a spot that racks up >0.5" LE during any window of subfreezing sfc temps. Still, some of these HRRR/RAP soundings are almost dead ringers for the December 2007 event I'm sure we all remember well.The soundings for you SW MO folk look like nailbiters between PL vs. ZR to me, but there should be a band somewhere in NW AR, possibly into MO, that gets nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thunder sleeting in Tulsa currently:( Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well, the OKC metro is 0 for 2 this month on significant threats that have materialized on the short-term models ~6-12 hours out, so I'm not sure why I even bothered looking again tonight. But the RAP and HRRR are yet again putting forecasters on edge, this time for icing prospects. Forecast soundings between 9z-15z look convincingly in the ZR category, especially from about I-44 NW to El Reno and Guthrie, and there are persistent convective QPF signals coinciding with that spatial and temporal window. With surface temperatures and dew points hovering just above freezing almost statewide, I'll take a skeptical wait-and-see approach on whether low-level backing overnight can really sneak subfreezing air south of the sleet profiles in N OK and beneath the stronger/deeper warm nose down here. If so, it could get nasty for someone, though I imagine it will take some "luck" to end up in a spot that racks up >0.5" LE during any window of subfreezing sfc temps. Still, some of these HRRR/RAP soundings are almost dead ringers for the December 2007 event I'm sure we all remember well. The soundings for you SW MO folk look like nailbiters between PL vs. ZR to me, but there should be a band somewhere in NW AR, possibly into MO, that gets nailed. You think you'll get something down there? I'm more concerned with freezing rain. These systems always tend to have a much stronger warm nose than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The biggest warm nose will be at 800 MB from the looks of the extracted data off the NAM for Joplin. It reaches 3.5 C by 12z, (around the time of heaviest precip) and even climbs up to 4.3 C by 15z before crashing down. It's 1.7 C at 850 MB, and 1.5 at 750 MB at 12z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The biggest warm nose will be at 800 MB from the looks of the extracted data off the NAM for Joplin. It reaches 3.5 C by 12z, (around the time of heaviest precip) and even climbs up to 4.3 C by 15z before crashing down. It's 1.7 C at 850 MB, and 1.5 at 750 MB at 12z as well. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What does this mean? Trying to determine precip type based on how big the layer of warm air is and where it is located in the atmosphere as well as how warm it is when compared to the air below it which will be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think it means the warm air transport around 5000' + is really strong, putting the kibosh on snow for sure. This would theoretically translate to freezing rain or rain for Joplin, depending on the surface temperatures. How did I do JoMo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Pretty good, The snow chances are pretty much not a happening thing from here south. I was looking around Fayetteville as well, looks like it could be sleet or freezing rain. It really is a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is an incredible forecast sounding for tomorrow morning around Fort Smith. 10C+ inversion, and really impressive elevated instability. From a parcel around 800mb, elevated CAPE of that magnitude is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1000 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A FEW COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED...AND AREAS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING ARE UNLIKELY TO RISE OVERNIGHT...MAKING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION PLAUSIBLE. SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT SOME POINT...BUT WITH THIS WAVE OF PRECIP ENDING...WILL LET THE ONCOMING SHIFT EVALUATE TEMPS PRIOR TO THE NEXT WAVE COMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Man it looks to be a slop bag mix of a mess up this way tomorrow. A couple relatives and friends in kc and northern kc said they are expecting a lot of snow up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wish this storm would keep trending south so that we all could just get snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wish this storm would keep trending south so that we all could just get snow! Me too!!!! That heavy snow shield looks to be just northwest of me tomorrow by 3 or so counties lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea, we are getting absolutely slammed here in Ft. Smith. We've got anywhere from 5-7 inches of snow around town and everything is solidified in ice already from the freezing rain that has been hitting for hours. The wind is howling incredibly crazy out there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I was curious about Ft. Smith when I saw that bright band had set up over you all for hours earlier today. Lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea, we are getting absolutely slammed here in Ft. Smith. We've got anywhere from 5-7 inches of snow around town and everything is solidified in ice already from the freezing rain that has been hitting for hours. The wind is howling incredibly crazy out there as well. Stay safe, and hope your power stays intact. And send some snow up our way haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How much ice would you say has accumulated so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 4z RAP for Norman. WHAT?? That's 0-3km helicity over 1400, elevated CAPE over 1000. And heavy freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Snowing here, huge fat flakes! Coming down pretty good also and everything is covered.....28 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Everything here is already very slick. It is going to be a long next 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Doug just updated. Calling for 1/2" -1" of freezing rain south of I-44. That's what I suspected as the warm nose is stronger than the models indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Doug just updated. Calling for 1/2" -1" of freezing rain south of I-44. That's what I suspected as the warm nose is stronger than the models indicate. Bleh not good, keep that junk down there lol. I just hate zr, bad expieriences with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Doug just updated. Calling for 1/2" -1" of freezing rain south of I-44. That's what I suspected as the warm nose is stronger than the models indicate. I just saw that. Plus, the radar is really getting intense across Oklahoma. I wonder about surface temps toward noon. Could they warm above freezing during this time? I think that is the big question. The one major thing that was a saving grace during the ice storm of 2007 was that the roads never got bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 yeah the RAP is putting down 1-1.25" or so of precip before the dry slot moves in for parts of the area. Temps may climb above freezing in the afternoon.... or they might not if there is a lot of ice built up on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Got a mix of snow and freezing rain here temps have jumped a degree and up to 29 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I've seen more lightning and heard more thunder from this event than some of the severe thunderstorm warnings SGF has put us under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I've seen more lightning and heard more thunder from this event than some of the severe thunderstorm warnings SGF has put us under. I know its thundering like crazy up this way, no lightning yet. The snow was short lived and is all freezing rain/sleet mix here now. Go 5 miles to my north and its all snow with some sleet haha....the town of collins is always the cutoff line(so weird) at highway 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Jeez is it pouring down freezing rain here now! Tons and tons of thunder, temp dropped down to 26. Everything allready has a thick glaze, roads are a mess. Just saw some lightning! First time for seeing that during a winter storm in a longggg time, awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.