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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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All that rain so sudden has my backyard under water lol. The stream down the road is also roaring like niagra falls! Its so neat but odd cause that thing has been bone dry lately. Picked up just shy of 2" of rain here, springfield is saying light rain(currently doing again) over to maybe some light snow through afternoon with a dusting possible

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So it turns out we had a presumed tornado about a mile from my house at around 4pm yesterday.  Here is a snippet from our neighbor's description on FB:

Tornado a little to close for comfort. Lucky no damage here but a few trees on the hill. Neighbors on the hill not so lucky but could have been so much worse. The tornado came within 10 or 15 feet of their homes. They lost barns, cattle, fence and sheds. As far as I know they are all safe. Rex took off to help find cattle and fix fence at Jeff's farm. He is still looking for cattle and has to get the fence back up to keep them in. Not sure if he lost hay. You can't even tell there was a barn there. No trusses, no sign of the metal roof as far as the eye can see. Crazy.

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There was an EF-1 tornado yesterday up by NwWhiteOut. Another tornado in NW Arkansas in Crawford county. They saw what they thought was debris on dual-pol with that one.

Was it near lowry city do you know? One of my friends said the nado sirens were going off in the town up there...I havent heard back from my friend yet so I dont know for sure what happened

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Was it near lowry city do you know? One of my friends said the nado sirens were going off in the town up there...I havent heard back from my friend yet so I dont know for sure what happened

 

4 miles NNE of Gerster, which would have put it near Quincy or about halfway between Lowry City and Wheatland. 

 

Looks like there was another one, or the one before the Gerster one 2 miles SSE of Cedar Springs.

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4 miles NNE of Gerster, which would have put it near Quincy or about halfway between Lowry City and Wheatland. 

 

Looks like there was another one, or the one before the Gerster one 2 miles SSE of Cedar Springs.

Crazy and it was 75 the other day! Now its like 27 out lol. I never ceased to be amazed out here with the weather. Did you guys have any snow down that way? Snowed off and on for a bit here throughout the morning but did not accumulate to anything as usual

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I feel like we will start to see a better pattern here by mid-February, based on projected MJO phase and what some of the experts are thinking and is now showing up on some long-range modeling.  The mean trough position will hopefully shift back to the western and central parts of the country and put us in a wetter pattern.  We have to get out of the persistent and dry NW flow.  With the PV still on our side of the globe there will be sufficient arctic air to be tapped into.  The next big storm of interest on the GFS appears to be in the Feb 10 timeframe, which would fit well in Doug's 48-50 day pattern this winter.  If you project forward in time 48-50 days from the big Christmas Eve storm you end up close to the 10th-12th of Feb.  Not saying it will happen but I could see a big storm crossing the country in that period, whether it makes us all happy or not.

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Agree.

I feel like we will start to see a better pattern here by mid-February, based on projected MJO phase and what some of the experts are thinking and is now showing up on some long-range modeling.  The mean trough position will hopefully shift back to the western and central parts of the country and put us in a wetter pattern.  We have to get out of the persistent and dry NW flow.  With the PV still on our side of the globe there will be sufficient arctic air to be tapped into.  The next big storm of interest on the GFS appears to be in the Feb 10 timeframe, which would fit well in Doug's 48-50 day pattern this winter.  If you project forward in time 48-50 days from the big Christmas Eve storm you end up close to the 10th-12th of Feb.  Not saying it will happen but I could see a big storm crossing the country in that period, whether it makes us all happy or not.

The 11-15 day charts remind me of December. Winter weather in the Heartland. Split flow could deliver the cold from the north and southern stream systems. Yes, the cycle is due to shift back in favor of the Heartland. Good luck!

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For a bit of optimism now... here's a snippet from Larry Cosgrove's latest newletter. He basically thinks cold in the heartland from mid-Feb into March.

Another storm should organize over Texas and the western Gulf Coast around February 12. This feature will form as a result of a "left behind" cold pool and energy which separates from the major disturbance predicted to occur in the medium range. The trajectory of the extended period low pressure system looks to be along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains or through the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain. This type of path would allow for significant snowfall from the Ozark Plateau through much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, before the low moves into Quebec by February 15. I would not rule out a third, weaker impulse along the trailing frontal structure in Dixie and the East Coast around February 17 - 19.

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For a bit of optimism now... here's a snippet from Larry Cosgrove's latest newletter. He basically thinks cold in the heartland from mid-Feb into March.

Another storm should organize over Texas and the western Gulf Coast around February 12. This feature will form as a result of a "left behind" cold pool and energy which separates from the major disturbance predicted to occur in the medium range. The trajectory of the extended period low pressure system looks to be along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains or through the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain. This type of path would allow for significant snowfall from the Ozark Plateau through much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, before the low moves into Quebec by February 15. I would not rule out a third, weaker impulse along the trailing frontal structure in Dixie and the East Coast around February 17 - 19.

Man I really do hope something happens cause we are almost out of time now with the sun angle getting higher. This is probly the worst winter season I have ever seen, I thought last year was bad but wow this one takes them all! Its definately colder but just so dry during the colder days

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NWS Springfield this morning:

 

INTERESTINGLY...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG DIGGING OF ENERGY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FATE OF THIS ENERGY IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT IT WILL HAVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO WORK WITH
VERSUS THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

 

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Nice run of the 0z GFS tonite for next week's system.  Shows a good area-wide snow for much of this region.  Need the Euro to come on now.

 

I haven't looked a model run in the last 2 plus weeks and decided tonight to pull the 0z GFS.  I was surprised and happy to see something to potentially get excited about.  Let's hope this trend continues.  We need some action on here.  It's been way too boring recently.  Is everyone that is normally on here out playing golf?  

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