Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yeah, it seems to have some issues with different pieces of energy. It is pretty messy... hopefully we will come to some kind of consensus in the morning with the 12z runs. This is going to be another rough system for the local NWS offices to deal with for sure. Will wait and see what the GFS says before bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nick's accumulation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Lol. Has me close to that 6-12 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 00z euro has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 .46" for me on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 .46" for me on the euro Is that all snow for your location? And what does it printout for Wichita? Thinking mixing may be an issue down this way, unless temps cool more dramatically Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Is that all snow for your location? And what does it printout for Wichita? Thinking mixing may be an issue down this way, unless temps cool more dramatically Sunday night. all but .02 (based off thickness) should snow for here in mcpherson, 850 TEMPS say all snow here. here is ICT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 all but .02 (based off thickness) should snow for here in mcpherson, 850 TEMPS say all snow here. here is ICT Based off 850mb and surface temps, this looks to be a sleet/snow mix transitioning quickly to all snow here. Would like to see area of heaviest precip shift slightly south...perhaps it still may. Either way, think central Kansas is looking at a potentially high-end advisory/low-end warning scenario. Think the local NWS office will likely go with an advisory and upgrade area if mesoscale conditions warrant an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Based off 850mb and surface temps, this looks to be a sleet/snow mix transitioning quickly to all snow here. Would like to see area of heaviest precip shift slightly south...perhaps it still may. Either way, think central Kansas is looking at a potentially high-end advisory/low-end warning scenario. Think the local NWS office will likely go with an advisory and upgrade area if mesoscale conditions warrant an upgrade. I agree. Although based off NAM and Euro, wouldnt be surprised to see a few counties in a warning to start off.for potential of 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 *scratches head*..... From my forecast..... "Periods of rain and snow before noon, then periods of snow between noon and 3pm, then periods of rain and snow after 3pm" So apparently it's going to be rain and snow in the morning... then for some reason it's going to switch to all snow between noon and 3 PM, then it's going to go back to rain and snow after 3 pm? here is a part of Wichita, Snow likely before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and noon, then snow after noon. High near 31. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 MON-TUE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE VIGOROUS SECOND PV ANOMALY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE FIRST WAVE AND INDUCE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE SNOW INTENSITY LOOKS RAMP UP LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...THUS LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. WE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AND COORDINATION EFFORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THINKING 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. wouldnt be surprised for them to put 2-5 or 3-6 in the advisory wording though, especially with name and euro showing this likely for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 for swmo is this looking like an ice event for the KJLN area or sekan ?/ just curious on the thoughts guys for this area here ?? Jc , JOMO? ARKIE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 SGF has a web briefing up this morning: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Cutting snow accumulations due to a stronger warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Cutting snow accumulations due to a stronger warm nose Man this is another forecast by springfield thats been all over the place, is this another weird setup and hard to nail down again? I might be far enough north but who knows for sure, will wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 KOLR 10's Jamie Warriner had this to say just a bit ago on Facebook... take to heart JoMo: Should see some snow to finish the year. Thermal profile looking a little colder in the latest model runs. Think our best shot at snow will be in the morning. A quick couple of inches looks possible before we get dry slotted and temperatures warm a little above freezing in the afternoon. Drizzle will continue to be possible Monday afternoon and evening, and with temperatures falling back below freezing Monday evening that will make for slick spots on roads New Year's Eve night. Models aren't showing much snow Monday night or Tuesday, but I'm going to watch this. A trough will linger in the area with a period of lift coming through during the day. It will definitely be cold enough for snow, and I think there may be a period of light snow during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Winter weather advisory of 2-4" for the county to my northwest and northward(Im right on the county line here lol). Springfield thinks areas highway 54 north(hwy 54 is 5 miles to my north) stay all snow tomorrow then over to a snow/zr mix tom. evening. I noticed dougs blog saying they do not think this will be a freezing rain/drizzle maker at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It looks like the best chance for wintery weather in this area will be on the very front end and the tail end of this system. If enough energy hangs around tomorrow evening, it may get interesting. Otherwise, another storm misses most of us to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That has me in 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 NAM looked a bit colder on the 18z. See what tonites runs have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 So far 00z euro is much drier for me and south central ks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Down to 0.15 for McPherson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Been snowing here for a bit. Down to 33 degrees. Coming down pretty good.. have a dusting on the grass and road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anyone with obs out of the southern MO area please let us know, will be a big help here at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Must have been snowing for a bit here too, temp is down from 37 around 2am when I went to bed and is now 33. Got close to an inch on the ground but now it seems to have transitioned to a mix of sleet/rain/snow allready. Forecast from springfield is confusing to say the least lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Lite rain/snow mix now in Monett. Close to an inch on the ground from all snows earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anyone notice the new(or it seems to be anyhow) intellicast future radar on its wxmap? The last little storm it was pretty darn accurate through the times of when the snow was on and off again and then ended. According to the future res on it stays all snow here today. Also just want to say my thermometers all say 33.8 degrees to 32.2, the 33.8 one is mounted about 10 feet off the ground and the other about a foot off the ground. Really must be getting some wet bulbing? near the surface cause the snow is sticking on the roads here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The snow has started here in McPherson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.