NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Glad it still works, enjoy guys and your welcome...merry early xmas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z GFS took a slight step in the Euro direction. Both models would now take the snow NW of here though. A couple of the ensembles are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z Euro has snowfall along and north of I-44 from 156-168. It's going to depend on the speed of the systems. One system is the cutoff over the SW, the other system is in the N. Stream and it's going to feed the southern system cold air and keep it from lifting northward too quickly. I hope the N Stream comes in faster or is colder, then we can all get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That would be nice!! I'm new to all this, obviously, but which is a better model to use 7 days out? GFS or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That would be nice!! I'm new to all this, obviously, but which is a better model to use 7 days out? GFS or Euro? That would probably be the Euro since the Day 6 scores show it currently crushing the GFS @ 500 MB. The UKIE is in 2nd and GFS 3rd with the Canadian bringing up the rear not too far off the GFS score. But I do caution that timing differences this far out can be pretty huge and this all depends on getting the N stream in here before the S low kicks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z GFS took a slight step in the Euro direction. Both models would now take the snow NW of here though. A couple of the ensembles are interesting. Ha is this any shocker, nope. The good ole track to the north or northwest lol. I hope this changes cause its a pretty dull so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Hope more action happens soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Wow...Wichita and across the middle of KS looks good for the 19/20th timeframe for some snow. I wish and sure hope the models start bringing that storm a little farther south...for all of us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Well, just saw that Ron Hearst said that there is no chance of a White Christmas this year. Well that is settled then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Man dougs blog posting has me down tonight bleh lol. Hes predicting below average snowfall this season for most of us, basically saying most the snows will stay nw of all of us and we will be rain for most of the storms unless colder air can get involved.....I hope this isnt true or its gonna be one long bleak and boring winter. Stranger things have happened though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Man dougs blog posting has me down tonight bleh lol. Hes predicting below average snowfall this season for most of us, basically saying most the snows will stay nw of all of us and we will be rain for most of the storms unless colder air can get involved.....I hope this isnt true or its gonna be one long bleak and boring winter. Stranger things have happened though Best time will probably be January on since we may get blocking that brings colder air down, of course the wavelengths between the storms should be farther apart by that time. I'm still interested in the storm I've been following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Best time will probably be January on since we may get blocking that brings colder air down, of course the wavelengths between the storms should be farther apart by that time. I'm still interested in the storm I've been following. Yep usually january is our coldest month. But man if my memory serves me right havent we gotten our biggest snow the past few years in feb. or march? And which storm you referring to the one on the 21st you mentioned above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yep usually january is our coldest month. But man if my memory serves me right havent we gotten our biggest snow the past few years in feb. or march? And which storm you referring to the one on the 21st you mentioned above? Yeah, we typically don't get a lot of storms around here in Jan. It picks up in Feb and March again though. The system I've been watching has been bouncing around a bit. It would be next week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yeah, we typically don't get a lot of storms around here in Jan. It picks up in Feb and March again though. The system I've been watching has been bouncing around a bit. It would be next week though. yea man january is usually bland and just cold as hell....feb is ok but march forget it unless its a night storm cause of that big fireball in the sky is getting back higher in the sky lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 00z GFS is getting better with the system in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 00z GFS is getting better with the system in question. Looks like the last 3 runs of the GFS have all trended colder and have all moved the snowfall southeast. The 12z had snow in N. Kansas/S. Neb. The 18z was similar but with heavier snow totals. The 00z JoMo just posted above. Hopefully this trend continues. Hopefully the 00z Euro will continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Like I said earlier, Wichita is apparently is in the sweet spot...we need to move that about 100 miles to the SE:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I don't like the lack of cold air with this system, regardless of track. There's no pre-existing surface high, and the polar jet is zonal and stretched across friggin' Canada from coast to coast. The Euro does look better in this regard, but only slightly. If anything, this looks more reminiscent of a late March or early April bowling bowl closed low where some area out in W TX gets half a foot of heavy cement overnight at 32.4 F that melts the next morning. I fear that the area in the cold sector with below-freezing thermal profiles could ultimately be smaller than the GFS suggests, but that depends largely on the strength of the upper low. The good news for me is that heavy, wet snow with near-freezing temperatures is my favorite kind, so the best-case scenario would be rather awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 yep, it wouldn't stick around long, but I just need to see it coming down to get my fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Aaaanndd...the Euro took the snow in half and waaay far north:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, just saw that Ron Hearst said that there is no chance of a White Christmas this year. Well that is settled then. Looks like Tulsa agrees pretty strongly this morning: OF NOTE IS THE EXTREME LACK OF A COLD AIR SOURCE ANYWHERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO REMAIN LIQUID UNLESS WE CAN GET A "PERFECT STORM" SCENARIO OF AN IDEAL STORM TRACK COUPLED WITH A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO MANUFACTURE ITS OWN COLD AIR. WITH NONE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST MODELS DEPICTING THIS OCCURRING...WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID AS CHANCES OF ANYTHING ELSE IS VERY REMOTE AS OF THIS POINT IN TIME. IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A DREAM FOR AN UNUSUALLY HIGH PRECENTAGE OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS.... So wish we had cold air...... This would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS.... So wish we had cold air...... This would be huge. No kidding... Tulsa gets hammered with 4"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 WHY CAN'T WE HAVE COLD AIR!?!...I'M SOOOOO DEPRESSED....TULSA COULDA, WOULDA, SHOULDA HAD THE BIGGEST SNOW EVER!!! (( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Is it cold enough (but shallow) to where fz rain/sleet are an issue or is it simply showing a cold rain right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Is it cold enough (but shallow) to where fz rain/sleet are an issue or is it simply showing a cold rain right now? There's a freezing rain/sleet threat as well. Freezing rain is pink and sleet is orange and snow is blue and rain is green on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Is it cold enough (but shallow) to where fz rain/sleet are an issue or is it simply showing a cold rain right now? At least how the models depict the system now, with the "bowling ball" look, ice is very unlikely for anyone. Significant freezing rain would be almost out of the question. Sleet might be possible, but more likely mixed in with rain or snow wherever it were to happen. Basically, I would not expect an ice storm for anyone unless the models change drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 At least how the models depict the system now, with the "bowling ball" look, ice is very unlikely for anyone. Significant freezing rain would be almost out of the question. Sleet might be possible, but more likely mixed in with rain or snow wherever it were to happen. Basically, I would not expect an ice storm for anyone unless the models change drastically. Totally agree with everything said here. This reminds me of an early Spring winter storm setup for the Southern Plains, when sources for cold air are lacking and a perfect low pressure track is required to produce a heavy, wet snow. Definitely doesn't look like a late December setup at all. These types of setups are generally more tricky than usual to forecast, as models tend to have a very difficult time getting the vertical temperature profiles correct. It will be interesting to see how this evolves, becuase this type of setup has produced big-time snowfalls in NW/NC/NE OK in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Totally agree with everything said here. This reminds me of an early Spring winter storm setup for the Southern Plains, when sources for cold air are lacking and a perfect low pressure track is required to produce a heavy, wet snow. Definitely doesn't look like a late December setup at all. These types of setups are generally more tricky than usual to forecast, as models tend to have a very difficult time getting the vertical temperature profiles correct. It will be interesting to see how this evolves, becuase this type of setup has produced big-time snowfalls in NW/NC/NE OK in the past. March 20, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The Euro starts pretty soon...maybe it will sheds some light on where exactly that cold air is at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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