The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No, I haven't reached that level of grief yet. LOL!!! I figured I'd get it over with. I am hoping all of the models are on crack and the actual results are back in our favor. Ignorance is bliss for a few more hours so we can still wish for a Christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I guess I'm just ready to move on to Christmas with my kids tomorrow and my partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Even the KOAM weather guys (Nick) on his 7PM update is still calling for accumulations across the area tomorrow. What am I missing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Even the KOAM weather guys (Nick) on his 7PM update is still calling for accumulations across the area tomorrow. What am I missing here? The Christmas Miracle factor and the fact that Nick is a snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looking at the 00z GFS... yep, lots of busted forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Springfield latest disco, they are saying that totals for most of Missouri except southern extreme areas will have to be lowered if other models follow the south trend....Im lost for words. This is gonna disappoint and probly piss off a lot of people who wanted snow, flurries anyone lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yep GFS and NAM very similar now. Cancel watches and warnings. The rest of winter ignore all models and just wait and see what you get. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This is why I was watching the satellite imagery earlier. Maybe I'm onto something! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 927 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012 .UPDATE... THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BRINGING ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. GIVEN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NAM INITIALIZATION...WE BUY THE SOUTHWARD TREND. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT SO SURE ABOUT THIS DRASTIC OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. WHILE WE AWAIT THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FILTER IN...IT DOES APPEAR THAT EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. STILL SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ONCE THE GLOBAL MODELS COME IN...WE`LL MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND THE HEADLINES. STAY TUNED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hi guys...Merry Christmas. FYI 'bubba hotpe' posted this AFD from DFW in the TX thread. I thought it was a good read and tells why the trend south may be in the making. FXUS64 KFWD 250312 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 912 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012 .UPDATE... WE HAVE ANALYZED THE 00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND HAVE WATCHED THE SURFACE OBS CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ANY DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THEM AND THE MODEL DATA. THE BIG THING THAT STANDS OUT ARE THAT THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 6PM WAS ABOUT 80 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAD FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. WHEN DEALING WITH A SWINGING/DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND PRESSURE TENDENCIES OFFER ENORMOUS CLUES ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY BEFORE IT CLOSES OFF TO BECOME A FULL FLEDGED UPPER LOW. THE 3PM AND 6PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT CAN BE DETERMINED WITHOUT EVEN LOOKING AT A FORECAST MODEL THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS NOT FINISHED DIGGING SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE UPPER LOW MAKE IT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SWING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS HOUR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE IN THE REGION FROM LUBBOCK TO MIDLAND...WITH ANOTHER PRESSURE FALL AREA DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EXTRAPOLATING SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK BY SUNRISE AND TO NEAR WACO BY SUNSET. AS THE LOW APPROACHES WACO...A WARM FRONT WILL BE ORGANIZING OUT OF THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SAN ANTONIO TO HOUSTON. BAROCLINIC QG THEORY SUGGESTS THAT ONCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MORNING...IT WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO CLOSE OFF AND FINISH DIGGING SOUTH...AND START ITS GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TOMORROW EVENING I WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK FROM NEAR WACO TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. IN SUMMARY THE USUAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALIGN WELL WITH THE RAP FORECAST WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL OTHER MODELS...SO WE WILL USE THE RAP HEAVILY. OUR FORECAST HAS BEEN ON THE SOUTHERLY SIDE AND SNOWIER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING AN EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK COME TO FRUITION...THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS NEED TO BE AMENDED MUCH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN GETTING THE COLDER/SUBFREEZING AIR FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS MORE PRECIP WILL FALL IN SUBFREEZING AIR. DUE TO THE TERRAIN EFFECTS HERE...COLD AIR HAS AN EASY TIME GETTING INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN WE HAVE A NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND. HAVE EXPANDED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE YOUNG/JACK/WISE COUNTIES...AND HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN. THE NORTHEAST ZONES LIKELY WONT SWITCH TO SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AS COLD AIR WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE LEE SHADOW WARMING EFFECT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS THERE WILL BE AFTER 6 PM AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER MESOSCALE BANDING CAN SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE NEW NAM HAS FINALLY FORECAST SOME SIGNIFICANT BANDING TO OCCUR...THUS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY ALONE IN THIS AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR 2+ INCHES OF SNOW. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY...FOR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STILL BE A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR EVENT WITH NOT ENOUGH TIME TO GET ACCUMULATIONS OVER AN INCH. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S BY SUNSET...ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND EVEN SURFACE STREETS WILL LIKELY RE- FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE USING 1+ INCH AS CRITERIA FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...WE MAY EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT DUE SOLELY TO TRAVEL IMPACTS. FINALLY CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER TREAT. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THIS MEANS THERE IS LESS OF A CHANCE OF THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AS IT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 3 AM...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE TONED DOWN THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT FROM OUR PRODUCTS...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HAIL STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Cape Girardeau has a blizzard watch 100% chance of 9-13 inches of snow. I would hate to be falling off that cliff come tomorrow AM, if this south move keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm probably beating a dead horse here. But regarding the DFW post above it says they expect the low to track from Waco to Shreveport and that the models are too far north. However, both the GFS and NAM runs have the low tracking south of these locations. IT WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO CLOSE OFF AND FINISH DIGGING SOUTH...AND START ITS GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TOMORROW EVENING I WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK FROM NEAR WACO TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. IN SUMMARY THE USUAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALIGN WELL WITH THE RAP FORECAST WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL OTHER MODELS...SO WE WILL USE THE RAP HEAVILY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Cape Girardeau has a blizzard watch 100% chance of 9-13 inches of snow. I would hate to be falling off that cliff come tomorrow AM, if this south move keeps going. Busting a forecast is never good, but busting the freaking Christmas forecast, ouch. On the other hand, if you are a kid in Hot Springs, AR or Tunica, MS things are definitely looking up for that once in a childhood white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I haven't looked long range... any prospects? We are really dry and need moisture. Due to this southward shift issue... we should start looking for storms that are expected to hit around Denver to Minneapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Busting a forecast is never good, but busting the freaking Christmas forecast, ouch. On the other hand, if you are a kid in Hot Springs, AR or Tunica, MS things are definitely looking up for that once in a childhood white Christmas. Yep thats what my point was earlier too, especially busting a Christmas storm ouch the guilt on my mind lol. I think the worst would be people that cancel to go see family or something special and then a forecast busts that bad....ooooh Id be pissed I know that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah I remember going to bed as a kid with a 100% chance for snow that night, a winter storm warning with 6+ inches of accumulation, only to wake up to find that it didn't snow at all, and instead it's 35 with drizzle. I also remember the Spring morning I woke up and I was curious why my mom had not woke me up for school. I looked out the window and there was 5" of snow on everything. There was no chance of snow the night before. You win some you lose some. Edit: But you'd think forecasting would improve in 15+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I haven't looked long range... any prospects? We are really dry and need moisture. Due to this southward shift issue... we should start looking for storms that are expected to hit around Denver to Minneapolis Some flurries or drizzle on Friday, but later runs will probably take it out completely. After that, boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im not a met, but maybe the Canadian looks further north with precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well all... goodnight. Hope you have a wonderful Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Have a Merry Christmas to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmt Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah I remember going to bed as a kid with a 100% chance for snow that night, a winter storm warning with 6+ inches of accumulation, only to wake up to find that it didn't snow at all, and instead it's 35 with drizzle. I also remember the Spring morning I woke up and I was curious why my mom had not woke me up for school. I looked out the window and there was 5" of snow on everything. There was no chance of snow the night before. You win some you lose some. Edit: But you'd think forecasting would improve in 15+ years. Ah...the infamous "Lee George flurries forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I sliced my forecast amounts for Tulsa and OKC and probably did not slice them enough if the 06Z NAM and the RAP are right now. RAP can have a south/east bias at times but goodness, both places may see nothing if some of these models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I sliced my forecast amounts for Tulsa and OKC and probably did not slice them enough if the 06Z NAM and the RAP are right now. RAP can have a south/east bias at times but goodness, both places may see nothing if some of these models are correct. It has been interesting watching this event unfold, I always felt a southern ejection was going to happen, but not to this extreme. Leeside ejections in some type of N-NW upper level jet flows almost always end up farther S due to PV conservation laws associated with terrain interaction. Most models do not have sufficient vertical levels...especially the NAM....which is highly deficient in this area. ECMWF leads the pack, and the new Canadian RGEM is close behind. Both of these numerical models suggested a much farther S ejection through this event. Even then, they did not simulate a far enough S solution, which goes to show how far we still are in terms of vertical resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is it just me or did the low not dive as far south as it was forecasted to... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not sure but I know the 12z models have shifted a bit further N. Maybe not enough for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest RAP run brings .10" of precip well into SW MO... good sign I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It appears all that precip in AR is really hitting a lot of dry air as it tries to come northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 nws sgf just said we're screwed not much in the way of snow at all maybe if any at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I am mildly disturbed by this .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hard to believe anything you read anymore with this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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