The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The above is the Futurecast function on the www.4029tv.com website. I emailed the met and asked about the accuracy of this. Here is her response: Our futercast model is usually pretty accurate. We make sure it initializes well first to see if has a good handle on precip. And it preformed pretty well with our last snow. It's also following along with where we think the heaviest snow will fall. -Brittany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What is their futurecast based off of? Looks a little unreasonable for our area. Don't get me wrong, I hope it plays out like that, but I just have a hard time seeing it happen. Great product nonetheless. Thanks for sharing Waterboy. Hope to see how it does overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What is their futurecast based off of? Looks a little unreasonable for our area. Don't get me wrong, I hope it plays out like that, but I just have a hard time seeing it happen. Great product nonetheless. Thanks for sharing Waterboy. Hope to see how it does overall. Unfortunately I don't really know what data it runs off of. I thought it seemed a bit unreasonable as well which is why I emailed her. She didn't really go into a lot of detail as you saw from her response I posted above. EDIT: At 1:00 the radar had updated and now the heavier snow is just south of FSM. That makes more sense based on the models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Good luck all! Totally jealous I'm back in New Jersey and missing this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 From what I'm reading the Euro appears to have a storm center near the GFS location now at h48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Updated web briefing from SGF is up: http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=webbriefing Meanwhile Paducah has just gone up with their first ever Blizzard Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And if the trend continues and the 18z NAM is correct most of SW MO and far NE OK get shutout totally on this one. I'm getting off of this board before I blow a fuse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Blizzard north of us and now one south and east of us. Figures... hope those of you across OK and AR enjoy the storm! I will enjoy my flurries tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For once, I'm rooting for the N of 44 crowd that I always fear stealing our snow. Out of the entire winter, there's about a 60-hour period centered on Christmas Day where I can't really be in town. Three years ago I missed the all-time record snowfall for OKC and the only blizzard warning for my county in the past decade during that window. Now the potential for the largest dump since that event looks pretty high for OUN. You just can't make this stuff up. So, go JoMo/NwWhiteout and crew -- last minute NW shift FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And if the trend continues and the 18z NAM is correct most of SW MO and far NE OK get shutout totally on this one. I'm getting off of this board before I blow a fuse! Maybe this will be the nowcast type of storm? These models are making my head spin lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For once, I'm rooting for the N of 44 crowd that I always fear stealing our snow. Out of the entire winter, there's about a 60-hour period centered on Christmas Day where I can't really be in town. Three years ago I missed the all-time record snowfall for OKC and the only blizzard warning for my county in the past decade during that window. Now the potential for the largest dump since that event looks pretty high for OUN. You just can't make this stuff up. So, go JoMo/NwWhiteout and crew -- last minute NW shift FTW! lol I like your attitude! I too wouldn't mind a nice NW jog from it but I try not to sound greedy for everyone else, besides that it is Christmas and Id like for us all to see a lil something from this. I just wanna see it snow, don't care if it accumulates or not really at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like the 18z NAM finally realized it's going south. What a joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Futurecast is usually the NAM or the RPM model from WSI which is a WRF model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ummm... SGF is really gung ho on accumulations pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 yeah I just saw that I'm under a winter weather advisory. The winter storm warning is south of Cassville though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 yeah I just saw that I'm under a winter weather advisory. The winter storm warning is south of Cassville though. Same here, they are saying 1-4". I don't buy into it after viewing some of the models, dry air and how sharply it looks to cutoff from south to north. But its springfield and they always seem high and conservative or bust usually up this way lol. I think I rely on you guys more then I do them haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ugh... I hate to be missing this: IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF MUCAPE OVER THIS REGION...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL...PERHAPS EVEN THUNDERSNOW IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THIS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED IN NATURE...3-4"/HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ugh... I hate to be missing this: IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF MUCAPE OVER THIS REGION...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL...PERHAPS EVEN THUNDERSNOW IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THIS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED IN NATURE...3-4"/HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. That was a pretty detailed writeup by NWS Springfield. I'm surprised they are holding steady on this. Sure doesn't look like it's in your favor that far north. I feel like I'm right on the line. They make it sound like I'm in great shape. Bizarre... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Assuming the 18z GFS and NAM are right. Springfield is going to bust pretty hardcore. It looks like Tulsa may not even get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Assuming the 18z GFS and NAM are right. Springfield is going to bust pretty hardcore. It looks like Tulsa may not even get anything. 18z GFS.. just crazy im so close to getting hardly anything... yet also close to getting dumped on.. gawd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z GFS snow. I'm looking at you ArkieOkie.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Assuming the 18z GFS and NAM are right. Springfield is going to bust pretty hardcore. It looks like Tulsa may not even get anything. Not sure I've seen SGF bust as bad as this could possibly be so hopefully these 18z runs are screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z GFS snow. I'm looking at you ArkieOkie.... lol Bleh really one giant donut hole of nothing over mid Missouri! North has some painted in there and extreme extreme south, that map makes me wanna vomit lol. Springfield is gonna really bust bad if this verifies! Wouldn't be any shocker though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not sure I've seen SGF bust as bad as this could possibly be so hopefully these 18z runs are screwed up. Idk something don't look right to me on some of these maps and I don't even really know how to read them, just that fast and sharp of a cutoff? I guess you just really have to understand the dynamics of these things which I don't, hopefully its just a fluke run ....we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like the 18z NAM finally realized it's going south. What a joke of a model. It was a pretty easy call on this one, the NAM just never made sense with such an outlier northern ejection...as well as a farther N deformation band given the amount of moist convection expected along the elongated warm front. NAM doesn't do too hot in this type of cyclogenesis scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess y'all are gonna want pics tomorrow, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess y'all are gonna want pics tomorrow, huh? You could do a Jim Cantore report and get the thundersnow on video, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess y'all are gonna want pics tomorrow, huh? Of course... I love snow pics and knowing they are from our neighbors down south is even better. The only thing better would be snow pics from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Are any of the ensemble members still on our side or is it time to throw in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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