B-Rent Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes this could be torture for the MO contingent on here. I guess you don't want to see this: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1941848 :whistle: In all honesty, we normally go see family at Lake of the Ozarks in this week. Glad were not this year. Looks nasty all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z GFS backs down to the mighty Euro. Farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Geez what a deal. Better sampling now I assume and we're back to the Euro. I'm back to throwing in the towel lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Geez what a deal. Better sampling now I assume and we're back to the Euro. I'm back to throwing in the towel lol. Looks to be onshore now. BREAKING NEWS: The NAM is still completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess this was an AR and E OK storm all along. Just a lot of variation and noise along the way as usual. The frustrating thing is if it were sitting right on us 5 days out it would without a doubt trend NW when we dont need it to. When we need a shift we can't get it. That threading the needle thing is hard to get I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 All the interest in this storm has crashed the Instant weather site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Still time guys.. Im on the northern end of snow as per 12z GFS.. IF it tracks futher south then I'll get a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Still time guys.. Im on the northern end of snow as per 12z GFS.. IF it tracks futher south then I'll get a dusting. I think you're probably good to go. You get screwed so many times, I'm glad this one is yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Still time guys.. Im on the northern end of snow as per 12z GFS.. IF it tracks futher south then I'll get a dusting. Well I hope you get a good Christmas snow down there. It's a rarity for sure so I hope a lot of us on here can see it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is reminding me all too well of Christmas 2004. Big storm across N and C AR to the bootheel up the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you're probably good to go. You get screwed so many times, I'm glad this one is yours. Maybe so,,, But there is going to be somewhat of a cut off of precip to close to me for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 9z SREF continues to be impressive. Is it normally very reliable? The SREF is basically the NAM ensemble. Still can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm in Benton County which is the far NW corner of AR. I may get screwed too and end up on the very northern fringe and get very little. At least I'm in the very southernmost part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The SREF is basically the NAM ensemble. Still can't rule it out. I hope things pan out for everybody but the latest trends this morning suggest there may be more room to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Did this last snowstorm that hit the midwest end up well NW of where a lot of the modeling had it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Congrats to those of you who usually do get missed if this all verifies! Id still like to at least see some snow falling to be honest on xmas night but its gonna be a fight with the dry air. Also such a huge quick cutoff in precip on this thing, hell it looks like if I go one county se im good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Did this last snowstorm that hit the midwest end up well NW of where a lot of the modeling had it? I don't remember exact runs, but I remember the NAM being the farthest NW and the Euro the farthest SE with the GFS in the middle. It went a bit northwest of the GFS and the Euro corrected late in the game. No two systems are alike but I'm hoping for a faster turn northeast of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I don't remember exact runs, but I remember the NAM being the farthest NW and the Euro the farthest SE with the GFS in the middle. It went a bit northwest of the GFS and the Euro corrected late in the game. No two systems are alike but I'm hoping for a faster turn northeast of course. Im looking for anything that will at least let me see snow falling at this point, don't care about accums. you guys who don't get that can have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I....I don't even have words for that, JoMo. If that 8.9 inches happens, I'll fall over from shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ' Fort Smith metro bullseye.. Isnt there someone on here that lives there? Maybe they will get the jackpot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I....I don't even have words for that, JoMo. If that 8.9 inches happens, I'll fall over from shock. Ahh there you are.. lol.. Maybe u will get the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Impressive for the River valley for sure. Enjoy guys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Where is Sebo? Haven't seen him on here in awhile. I think he lives right around Ft Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Out of SGF earlier this morning - before the GFS run: ...PRELIM MORNING WINTER STORM UPDATE... .UPDATE... WANTED TO PROVIDE A VERY PRELIMINARY UPDATE REGARDING THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 12Z NAM HAS ARRIVED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS NOT CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...SAVE FOR A VERY SLIGHT (30 MILES AT MOST) SHIFT SOUTH. QPF FROM I-44 SOUTH REMAINS HEAVY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. BASED ON THE 12Z NAM...MAY NEED TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS. THAT SAID...HERE IS AN OUTLINE OF THE GAME PLAN FOR TODAY: GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS STORM...AND THE FACT THAT THIS MORNING`S 12Z GUIDANCE WILL HAVE THE BEST UPPER AIR DATA COVERAGE SO FAR...WILL WAIT ON THE 12Z GFS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE OPTIMISTIC HOPE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDS A HAIR NORTH...BRINGING THE GFS AND NAM INTO NEAR LOCK-STEP. ONCE THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN EVALUATED...WILL ALLOW ANY CHANGES TO GOING WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO "FALL OUT" OF THE FORECAST. HOPEFULLY...HEADLINE DECISIONS CAN BE MADE BY MIDDAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yea, saw that from last night. I'll believe it when I see it,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ahh there you are.. lol.. Maybe u will get the jackpot. Not that I wouldn't love it, but I wish it would wait until later Christmas afternoon. We have to drive to Alma tomorrow morning and come back tomorrow afternoon. If the roads get iffy before we head back home, we're staying overnight. Our kids will love that, but my husband does NOT want to stay overnight at his mom's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 New map just out of the SGF office. Hope this comes close to panning out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's a question for someone (JoMo maybe). In looking at the surface low placement on the 12z NAM and GFS they are very similar in placement especially at H42 where the low is in NE MS in dang near the exact same place. However, the NAM brings the heavier precip further NW than the GFS does. Anybody have any good insight into that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's a question for someone (JoMo maybe). In looking at the surface low placement on the 12z NAM and GFS they are very similar in placement especially at H42 where the low is in NE MS in dang near the exact same place. However, the NAM brings the heavier precip further NW than the GFS does. Anybody have any good insight into that? The NAM continues to eject the upper level low farther N than the GFS as the system departs the Rockies. Shows up nice in a 30 hour 12Z NAM/GFS 500 hpa comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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