JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z NAM clown map. I expect this will probably be the farthest NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And the 12z GFS tells the 12z NAM it's crazy. Biggest snows in SE MO into N-Central Arkansas. E-OK and W-AR a bit less than the 06z GFS run. The 12z NAM looked very Dec 23-24, 2002. This event was among the top 2 on the CIPS analog guidance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Why are the NAM and GFS so completely different? Something's gotta give... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Man springfield sounds really confident already and posted a snow totals map up on their site, I think its a bit to early for that in my opinion as this thing seems to have jumped NW a tad. Still has aways to go, this is the time I wish I lived further south lol. NAM says 8-9" for my county GFS says 1"....amazing difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Why are the NAM and GFS so completely different? Something's gotta give... Because it's the NAM. lol From a quick glance... The NAM is farther north and stronger with a tighter 700 MB low. The GFS is farther south and has a weaker 700 MB low until it gets farther east. The 12z GGEM is going to look like that one Euro run with the heaviest snow falling across SE OK, SW and central to northeast Arkansas it looks like. Euro runs in an hour. I wouldn't completely discount the NAM. If the system comes out stronger and farther north and gets it's act together quicker, it'll probably end up pretty close to the NAM solution. The last system we just had ended up farther northwest, closer to what the NAM was showing at the time. I remember the Euro was too far SE, the GFS had the low tracking over Joplin and the NAM had it tracking NW of Joplin. The end result was that it tracked NW of Joplin but not as far as the NAM had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And all the while the EURO decides to not join the NW bump party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z Euro looks like it remains pretty similar to it's earlier runs, maybe a hair farther NW as it now has extreme NW Arkansas getting in on some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At this rate will the NAM put AR into the warm sector, lol? Anyway,It certainly is a stretch to believe the NAM when it stands alone, BUT....Remember the "Highway 412" snow of February 2011 (I think) where the NAM stood alone against the model world and won? All along AR 412 between Siloam and well east into Newton County amounts were 20+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NWS SGF has a briefing video up. They are calling for 1-2" along and south of I-44 with 4-7" in SC MO. Areas of SC and SE MO are now under a Winter Storm Watch: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM puts some Eminem "Won't Back Down" on it's iPod and sticks with it's northern solution. Dumps over 2 feet near in N Central OK. A little bit lesser amounts than the 12z run for the rest of the area. HPC is not discounting it's more northern solution. I just looked and I'd say the system won't be onshore until at least the 12z run tomorrow and maybe not until the 18z will be it fully sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Winter Storm Watch out for most of NW Arkansas now (except Benton county) from TSA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NWS Tulsa sticking with the southern route for now and is issuing a WSW primarily south of 1-40. They are still discounting the NAM for now. Take this for what it's worth, but www.4029tv.com has as interactive radar that has a "Futurecast" feature. This currently goes out to 2:00 PM on Christmas Day. The majority of snow at the end of the run is in N.Ok with 3-6 inches in some spots. It doesn't go out far enough yet to reach So. MO and NWA. I have no clue how accurate this is but it's interesting that it seems to be mirroring the NAM way more than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Starting to see Norman, Tulsa, and Dodge City offices go with some sort of winter weather product ahead of this storm. What does everyone think, will the other models come to the NAM or is it on an island all its own and why? EDIT: Wichita WFO completely discounting NAM due to its inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Starting to see Norman, Tulsa, and Dodge City offices go with some sort of winter weather product ahead of this storm. What does everyone think, will the other models come to the NAM or is it on an island all its own and why? I'm sticking with what I said last night. My 37 years of experience living in this area says that these storms almost always track NW of where the models set up a few days out. I'm not saying the NAM total snowfall amounts are accurate but the track isn't too far fetched in my opinion. Maybe that's wishful thinking. I'm in Benton County so I'll probably see some snow regardless of what pans out unless it shifts way south. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you Tulsa, SE KS, So Mo friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 SGF going with a Winter Storm Watch for SC MO... interesting write up in relation to the NAM: THE FIRST OUTCOME...AND THE OUTCOME WITH THE MOST MODEL SUPPORT AT THIS TIME...IS FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...PIVOT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE HEAVY SNOW SWATH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS STORM TRACK WOULD CLIP SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...HOWELL/OREGON/SHANNON COUNTIES...WITH GRADUALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS TAPERING TO THE NORTHWEST (AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR). THE MODELS THAT SUPPORT THIS OUTCOME ARE THE OPERATIONAL VERSIONS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM. THE SECOND OUTCOME...ONE THAT HAS LESS MODEL SUPPORT BUT PHYSICALLY MAKES SENSE AND REMAINS POSSIBLE...FEATURES A STORM TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...BY ABOUT 50 OR SO MILES. WHILE 50 MILES DOES NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH...WITH A STRONG WINTER SYSTEM LIKE THIS IT MEANS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LITTLE TO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IN THIS CASE...THE HEAVY SNOW TRACK WOULD EDGE MUCH CLOSER TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THE MODEL RUNS THAT SUPPORT THIS OUTCOME ARE THE NAM...SREF MEAN AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS. THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STOPS DIGGING...PIVOTS AND BEGINS A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW GETTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HAVING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO BE SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK THE HOPE IS THAT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL BE MORE DEFINITIVE. LOOKING AT THE SLU/CIPS ANALOGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OUTPUT HAS FAVORED A SLIGHT NORTHWEST JOG IN THE FORECAST STORM TRACK...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI (HOWELL...OREGON AND SHANNON COUNTIES) TO RECEIVE SIX INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND TAKING THE CONSENSUS OF THE TWO POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE IN A WINTER STORM WATCH. FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY. IT CANNOT BE OVERSTATED THAT EVERYONE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS NEEDS TO BE WEATHER AWARE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY TO THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE FORECAST IS ALMOST ASSURED TO BE ALTERED IN SOME FASHION BASED ON NEW MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah the 15z SREF favors N OK into SW MO as being the heaviest area of snow. It lessens farther east. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z GFS coming in a bit wetter and a bit farther northwest. I would like this trend. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Smack-dab in the middle of the watch here. We're monitoring for travel plans...we have to go to inlaws' about 22 miles east of us near Alma, AR Christmas morning, then return home Christmas afternoon. From the forecasts I've seen, the snow won't start until afternoon, so our morning trip *should* be ok. We're packing overnight bags just in case, but would prefer to get back home before the roads get nasty. We'll stay if we have to, we won't risk hazardous roads, especially with the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol I wouldnt be surprised if it tracks up I-44. The way it keeps moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Interesting change in the 18z GFS mean. Wetter and farther NW with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Most of the 18z GFS ensemble members do have increased precip across S MO and N AR. I like P10 the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAM is an I-44'er. Looks like 15-18" for Tulsa, Probably 10-12" for Joplin. 12-15" for Monett. Heaviest snow band is right along I-44. 18z GFS is a bit farther south. Looks like 5-6" for Tulsa. 2" for Joplin. Fayetteville would have 6-8", Mountain Home 8-10" Heaviest south of I-44 in OK and N of I-40 in Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We better get something good here in Ft. Smith or I will go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We better get something good here in Ft. Smith or I will go crazy. I think you will get some snow.. How much still ''up in the air''... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you will get some snow.. How much still ''up in the air''... lol After last year's year long spring, I forgot what snow looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Been up in KC today watching the Colts pull one out against the Chiefs so getting caught up tonite. Wow what is going on here? Did I throw the towel too soon last nite or is this just a big tease by the NAM. I know not to trust the NAM but perhaps the NW trend is really commencing, as per the midday GFS. The Euro is so consistent it worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z NAM just started. We'll see in a few minutes how crazy it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The surface low is further south at H36 on the NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Maybe a tad slower but holding course so far. But maybe a tad south too as mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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