MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JoMo you seen any precip numbers off today's Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JoMo you seen any precip numbers off today's Euro? No, just using the Wunderground maps. That deformation band looks pretty strong over central Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still tracking this thing. Its fun, Euro is trying to shift nw.. which is good. But still not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro doesn't have any snow for your area on todays run for this storm. It would have to trend pretty far NW to get you in the deformation zone. Unless the Euro just doesn't have enough precip on the NW side of the system. Thats what I was thinking. Think the cold air that comes down on the back side of this is going to force everything southeast of our area. Though, there is a pretty interesting blog entry on how the models may not be correctly forecasting this system. Read about it here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-forecast-of-christmas-boxing-day.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Me and a few others still need it to come pretty far NW still. Im right on the borderline it looked like for where the precip would cutoff or be realllly light in nature. Still its a NW trend which this time can be a good thing lol. Id be happy just to see it snow on xmas day or night. Things are definitely looking up for you guys in far south MO though Ehhhh why is it underlining, sorry guys lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I havent this place this active in such a long time. Its a welcome change for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thats what I was thinking. Think the cold air that comes down on the back side of this is going to force everything southeast of our area. Though, there is a pretty interesting blog entry on how the models may not be correctly forecasting this system. Read about it here: http://meteorologica...boxing-day.html Interesting read for sure. Tks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From NWS Tulsa: NOW TO THE CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM ATTM. SEVERAL EMBEDDED PV MAXES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE SYSTEM...ONE CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CA/OR...AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LOCATED ROUGHLY 44N 153W DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. IT IS THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE BY MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE UNTIL IT EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND DIVES DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. AS PV IS ADVECTED DOWN INTO THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL CYCLONGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP...A PRETTY DECENT TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM...TRANSLATING INTO A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT THE SURFACE WITH TIME. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN SOME PLACES. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE ARKLATEX...IT APPEARS THAT THE BAND OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW WILL SET UP FROM SE OK AND THEN INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AR AS THE UPPER LOW THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD MEMPHIS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PIVOT POINT OVER SE OK OR W CNTRL AR WHERE THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT CHANGES FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. IF THAT HAPPENS...LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE OK AND WRN AR WILL LIKELY PICK UP HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE ARE 2 MAIN UNCERTAINTIES THAT MAY HOLD BACK SNOW AMOUNTS SOME. 1) SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOUTH WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR A TIME WHICH COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS AND 2) THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWIFT JET STREAM FLOW AND WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY. NONETHELESS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME PLACES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE STATE OF AR WILL GET HAMMERED BY THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBYS. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here is the HPC 4"+ snowfall graphic for Christmas: If we could bring that just about 50 miles further north I think most of us would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If we could bring that just about 50 miles further north I think most of us would be happy with that. i would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z GFS holds serve - too far south with the best snows. Central AR looks to be the jackpot for a nice Christmas snowstorm. I'm officially waving the white flag on this one for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Is anybody holding out any hope for a more NW track? I will say this, I grew up in Ft. Smith and lived there for the 1st 22 years of life. I can't tell you how many storms were forecasted to hit FSM for them only to track into NWA/So. MO. Used to piss me off something fierce. Not sure we will get lucky this but we can still hope. Although SRAIN posted in another thread that NWS DFW discussing a potential even further south track. The next 36 hours will probably tell all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think most of us are hoping for a more NW track but even the NAM isn't showing that. The last system did come out a bit farther NW than it was supposed to so I am hopeful that something similar happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00z Euro is deeper and farther west at hr 72 than the GFS. GFS has a 998 over east Mississippi and the Euro has a 996 over SE Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i just waved the white flag for anything here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro still too far south despite a small bump NW in overall snow compared to the 12z. NE TX/SE OK up through N Central Arkansas win this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00z Euro now has some consolation snows on Friday/Saturday to be determined. The Experimental FIM model has it as well, almost like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 too far east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You never know where it'll end up. Some of the 00z GFS ensembles do have precip farther north. I personally like P003 for the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You never know where it'll end up. Some of the 00z GFS ensembles do have precip farther north. I personally like P003 for the Christmas storm. There's the positive outlook I was looking for earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 JoMo was talking about the Friday storm...not only does it have support from the FIM, ECMWF and to a lessor extent the GFS...the Canadian has it as well and its mostly all snow for everybody in the forum. Screenshot below is from the 00z Sunday run valid at 132 hours (12z Friday 12/28) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And there's the big jump north on the 06z NAM. Absolutely crushes NW AR and E OK. 2+ feet in parts of E and NE OK and NW Arkansas this run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And there's the big jump north on the 06z NAM. Absolutely crushes NW AR and E OK. 2+ feet in parts of E and NE OK and NW Arkansas this run, lol That is very interesting. I still am not buying the sharp western and southern cutoff to the precip as it relates to us in south-central Kansas. It will be very interesting to see if the 06z GFS and subsequent model runs continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That is very interesting. I still am not buying the sharp western and southern cutoff to the precip as it relates to us in south-central Kansas. It will be very interesting to see if the 06z GFS and subsequent model runs continue the trend. 06z GFS bumped northward a bit and increased QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 06z GFS bumped northward a bit and increased QPF. Yeah and delivers a good hit for most of W KS, OK, N AR and SE MO. I am very interested in seeing the ensembles and morning data. Kinda thought a jump could happen as only now the storm is being sampled by rawinsondes. Could be a nasty tornado outbreak across the southeast U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think the next couple of runs (12z and 00z) will truly show us if this track is locked in or if the NW shift will commence. NWS in TSA and SGF seem pretty confident for being two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think I'll take this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Through hour 54, the 12z NAM is farther northwest when compared to the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This NAM has got to be considered a clown map. What is that 2'+ over XNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It pushed farther NW on this run of the NAM. Along and south of I-44 gets rocked up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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