Spot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This scares me I never want to be in a bullseye or axis thing this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Crap, Henry posted that map? It's not going to do anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I bet I jinxed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I bet I jinxed us. Nah you didn't, its just how it is living where we all do lol. We have to be extremely lucky and have that perfect track around here. Don't get me wrong some snow on Christmas night would be awesome but hey at least its looking to be cold instead of warm! Im sure these models are gonna continue to flop around until sunday I'm betting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 From what I'm reading the Euro ensembles are all similar to the operational. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Todays Euro looks awful for us.. Lets hope it does not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Springfields afternoon disco is an interesting read. They said a storm looks likely but beings the models keep flopping around they are very uncertain of the track right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS vs pretty much every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z gfs seems better in terms of qpf here but still south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z gfs seems better in terms of qpf here but still south If anything you are in the sweetspot up there in McPherson. Lesser amounts in SC KS into Oklahoma and Missouri. I'm eagerly awaiting the 00z set of runs and what the NAM does with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NWS Tulsa is now updating their snowfall forecast decision support page. I know it's early, but it will interesting to watch to get their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00z GFS delivers a good hit for the SW 3/4 of Oklahoma and the NW 3/4 of Arkansas minus extreme NW Arkansas. Totally need that NW trend to kick in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00z GFS delivers a good hit for the SW 3/4 of Oklahoma and the NW 3/4 of Arkansas minus extreme NW Arkansas. Totally need that NW trend to kick in a bit. Yep by what models I just looked at that sampled 00z all looked to far south still, but what do I know I cant understand these things like you guys can. Some sample at different times then others right JoMo? I feel like a noob here and outta place sometimes. And the nam only goes out to 84hrs right? And yea its funny cause these suckers all seem to trend NW lol, maybe later runs will who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yep by what models I just looked at that sampled 00z all looked to far south still, but what do I know I cant understand these things like you guys can. Some sample at different times then others right JoMo? I feel like a noob here and outta place sometimes. And the nam only goes out to 84hrs right? Yeah, NAM out to 84. The GFS is running now. It's out to about 153. All too far south of here at this time for the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah, NAM out to 84. The GFS is running now. It's out to about 153. All too far south of here at this time for the big snows. Ok guess that explains why the GFS maps I was looking at were still in orange for some time runs, guess it was sampling and still is. Don't want it to far NW but jeez its just way way to far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Time Sensitive 00z GFS "Clown Map" of snow on the ground right after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm not throwing in the towel on this one until tomorrow nite. The last couple of storms have all had shifts NW from model progs 3-4 days out so that is conceivable again with this one. Too many factors still to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I like MoWeather Guy's positive outlook! Let's not give up quite yet. So, I got curious and wanted to look back at the last 3 days of GFS runs using Twisterdata.com. Here's a brief recap of where the heavier snows set up. A couple of runs showed no storm at all. Again, I'm not extremely knowledgable on the meteorology side of things so this isn't extremely in depth but gives us an idea that the GFS has been all over the place with almost zero consistency run to run. Dec. 18 12z - 1-44 storm - 12+ inches for most of I-44. Dec. 18 18z - Huge storm for everybody from N. Tx, OK, AR, KS, and MO Dec. 19 00z - Shifted the storm way down to MS/TN Dec. 19 12z - Back to 1-44 storm with less QPF than previous 12z run. Dec. 19 18z - N. OK to Central KS primary area for heavier snow. Dec. 20 00z - SE KS to Central MO bullseye - 1-44 and north again. Dec. 20 06z - No storm. No snow. Nothing. Nada. Dec. 20 12z - Central Ark 1-3 inches only Dec. 20 18z - No storm. See 06z run from earlier. Dec. 21 00z - NW Ark and Eastern OK 1-3 inches Dec. 21 06z - Very little snow for anyone. Dec. 21 12z - Eastern OK, Southern Mo/ NW Arkansas - This one is the jackpot if we all want decent snows. Dec. 21 18z - Very little snow for anyone Dec. 22 00z - Current run showing heaviest snow from Poteau, OK to Fort Smith to Little Rock I can't really see a trend here other than the southward shift from the Dec. 18 1-44 runs to the latest, more southern routes. Anyone else have any additional insight they want to throw out. I don't know if this is helpful info or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The prior runs all had to do with phasing and if a wave to the north was going to be in the wrong position to allow it to happen. The big runs were when things phased and it turned the storm negative tilt. The other runs were when a lead wave or northern stream wave obstructed the system from developing. The more recent runs have just shown a closed low passing by and it doesn't turn negative tilt or phase until it has passed most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There was a slight shift N on the 6z GFS last nite FWIW. And the 6z DGEX (NAM) brings quite a bit more snow northward, although this could include totals from a system expected to affect the area next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here is a good snowfall forecast summary webpage if anyone is interested. Only the American models. DGEX as well as the GFS and NAM overlays (Earl Barker) and updates automatically. Provides a quick snapshot of what the latest model runs are forecasting. https://sites.google.com/site/forecastmodels/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z NAM trying to ease ever so slightly N this morning. This is the NAM so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would take this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Fairly noticeable shift NW on the 12z models today (minus the GGEM). Looking at the last 3 runs of the Euro on Wunderground. It has increased snow amounts and taken the heaviest snow band from SE Arkansas into W TN on yesterdays 12z run to SW to NE Arkansas on todays run. Another jump NW like that and we'd all be looking pretty good, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro appears to be further NW on the 12z. Still prolly not enough for some of us on here but its a start. Oz took the low from New Orleans to Roanoke, 12z from San Antonio to Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro appears to be further NW on the 12z. Still prolly not enough for some of us on here but its a start. Oz took the low from New Orleans to Roanoke, 12z from San Antonio to Nashville. NW trend has began, I hope. Tomorrow's 12z runs will all look just like the map okie posted. Except the GGEM which will still amplify the lead wave too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Does the northwest trend take accumulating snow into SC KS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Does the northwest trend take accumulating snow into SC KS? Gonna take a pretty good NW shift to get it up that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Does the northwest trend take accumulating snow into SC KS? The Euro doesn't have any snow for your area on todays run for this storm. It would have to trend pretty far NW to get you in the deformation zone. Unless the Euro just doesn't have enough precip on the NW side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NW trend has began, I hope. Tomorrow's 12z runs will all look just like the map okie posted. Except the GGEM which will still amplify the lead wave too much. I would take just a 75 mile shift at this point. Dont want to be shut out on this one. I got a lot of friends over in the bootheel that are licking their chops at this point and ready to rub this one in my face. Would be great to see some snow on the ground Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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