JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Too far N still for my comfort. May have to endure a couple of misses to the north to get us going this winter. Well it is south of the previous storm today, just not far enough south. There's still time and more model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Got some very light snow falling here, right around 35 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas PM snow in parts of NE Oklahoma. Based on latest model data, the storm system looks to be potent and capable of major travel problems in the area. Too soon to talk specific amounts, but stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 00z euro was south again, as was the 06 gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Light to moderate wind driven snow here for the past hour or so. Not quite a dusting though. Wind is ferocious this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Light to moderate wind driven snow here for the past hour or so. Not quite a dusting though. Wind is ferocious this morning. Its nice to see for a change isn't it? Grass is just about covered here now, temp still dropping down to 32 now. I love snow but man you aren't kidding, that wind is nuts! I'll just sit and watch it inside for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Picked up almost 4” of snowfall here in my part of Kansas City. Winds are out of the North at 34 and gusting to 46. Highest gust so far has been 49 that occurred at 3:56 AM. White out conditions and of course wrecks everywhere. Also approximately 36,000 customers without power in the metro area at this hour. Back edge of the snow looks to be moving into the area within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 All the 12z models went south and produce a storm over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 All the 12z models went south and produce a storm over the southeast. Discouraging for sure but way too early to write this one off. HPC still favoring a snow track from NW OK across KS and MO into OH Valley next week. The way the models have been on the last few systems we may have it where we want it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Discouraging for sure but way too early to write this one off. HPC still favoring a snow track from NW OK across KS and MO into OH Valley next week. The way the models have been on the last few systems we may have it where we want it right now. Yeah by the time it gets done with the NW trend, it'll be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good synopsis from NWS Springfield on next week: THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES THOUGH MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR NEXT WEEK. 5-WAVE CHARTS ARE SHOWING CONTINUING DIFFICULTIES WITH THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS STREAMS WITH THE LATEST TREND INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR CUTOFF ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wichita is kind of throwing in the towel it sounds like. I saw some flurries this morning so that should hold me over. A storm around New Years has been pretty consistent as well if this one doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here is TSA's take: FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE PUSHED THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCIES...THOUGH DETAILS/FORECASTER CONFIDENCE SHOULD IMPROVE AS DATA COMES IN. Definitely hope the models begin to hone in on some sort of a solution by the weekend. Next week will be a busy travel time for many across the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 00z GFS: Annnnd back to a closed storm with snow in NE OK and especially NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hoping this is the start of a deeper storm, more NW trend vs the flat progressive look. Euro tonite could be telling if it follows this trend. While not money, Euro becomes much more plausible within 4-5 days IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I've got a bad feeling about one. Bad in the sense the one day I really really don't want it to snow - the 26th when I leave for AZ from XNA - is looking more plausible. Reminds of my my last AZ trip which took off on Christmas eve 2010, just missing the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Your feeling may be right. 00z Euro has a closed 500 MB low over SW Arkansas with a 998 low over SE Arkansas on Christmas evening. And the 850 MB low is over southern Arkansas. But it may not have a neg tilt yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Your feeling may be right. 00z Euro has a closed 500 MB low over SW Arkansas with a 998 low over SE Arkansas on Christmas evening. And the 850 MB low is over southern Arkansas. But it may not have a neg tilt yet. JoMo, Translate this for me into something I can understand. Like many, I'm a novice and although I think what you said is a good thing I'm not 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 JoMo, Translate this for me into something I can understand. Like many, I'm a novice and although I think what you said is a good thing I'm not 100% sure. Doesn't look like it's phased though. Basically has snow from SE OK into central and northern Arkansas into SE Missouri. NW Arkansas may get flurries. Still, when you compare it to last nights run which had an open wave. It's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is certainly looking better for most of N AR and E OK. For the rest of us we need a bit more latitude coming out of the S Plains which can be gained by earlier phasing, negative tilt and strengthening of this system. Probably some more NW correction to come on the models. I would hope a consensus is close by early this weekend. As of now my guess is all of N AR, N and E OK, and anywhere SE of I-44 in MO would be in pretty good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GFS has a pretty good hit for NE OK/ NW AR/ SW MO this run. 6+ inches in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Something to check up on... finally.. lol I wonder where this thing will end up.. if it forms. Seems complex to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Congrats in advance guys. Much like three years ago around this time, clearing out most of us weenies from the OU met school for the holidays allows magical things to happen in the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yes indeed 12z looking much better now. Hope the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Tulsa has a briefing up. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=camtasiaBriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Still a pretty varied look on the 12z GFS ensembles today. If that lead wave and pre-christmas storm is stronger, than it will flatten things out and the next storm (ours) won't amplify as much. Hoping the Euro looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 And the 12z Euro is south with snow in SE Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Damn the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GGEM suppressed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'll take Henry's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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