JoMo Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 The 12z GFS today is now cutting the 2nd system featured above off over the desert SW and Baja. (This has been the Euro solution for days) This results in light rain chances across primarily OK and AR and points south for a few days. When it does bring the system out, the snow would be mostly north of here. There are more systems digging into the west after this and it looks like it could be pretty active around Christmas. This is the total snowfall through the entire run, I just posted this cause I thought the area with less snow near I-44 seemed about right, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Well, that sucks!!!! I want snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z Euro doesn't sever the cold connection like the 12z GFS to that storm. Arctic air coming down the Plains and it looks like it might be ready to spin a big storm up sometime after 180 over the S. Plains. Looks like it's going to be a battle with the SE Ridge and the storm system so that of course puts this area right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 At least maybe something to keep an eye on the next few days. Been too boring for me lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 At least maybe something to keep an eye on the next few days. Been too boring for me lately. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Defin some potential there.. just in time for Christmas, too. I think we'll get fairly active here over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Which website did you pull that Euro map from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 yeah it does look like it will get active. GFS is indicating multiple storms possible after this. Joplinmet says we get into an active pattern the 2nd half of Dec. And I got the map from this site, heh http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html I can't wait until we get a legit threat on the Euro within 180 hrs so I can compare the GFS/Euro on Wunderground. I'm comparing them now since they both have the same maps, but there isn't a legit threat within the 180 Euro window on wunderground yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 OK tks. I'm trying to get back into the flow of modeling and all my old website favorites. Yeah that Wunderground is gonna be interesting with the Euro snowmap, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Awful runs tonight on the 00z models. The Euro bowed down to the GFS pretty much. It's just... terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Day 4-8 from SPC mentions this region in particular... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011 VALID 141200Z - 191200Z ...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY MIDWEEK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH A SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY. SOME GUIDANCE...THE 11/00Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR... SUGGESTS THAT A DRY LINE OR DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE COULD FORM BENEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THIS CASE...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI REMAINS UNCLEAR. IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... MAINTAINING STABLE NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...ALONG WITH LINGERING DISCREPANCIES/SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THIS UNCERTAINTY GROWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AS SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR. ..KERR.. 12/11/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Still looks pretty active long range just not as cold. That could change on today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 At least it is an active period ahead. That is better than all those sunny dry days. Rain is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Been some changes on the 12z GFS on the system of interest (Day 7ish). There's a stronger high pressure system with a bit colder air with it, this results in the freezing line being farther south. At the same time, the system is not as closed off and has a slight positive tilt to it until it eventually wraps up, the end result would be primarily freezing rain and sleet north of the 0 deg blue line. When it does come out, it's rain.... but there will be a lot of rain with this system as modeled on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Dangit..still no snow!!! On to January I say!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 yep and the Euro keeps it cutoff over the SW. Bah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 yep and the Euro keeps it cutoff over the SW. Bah... Things can change but damn its gonna be one of those years again? Storm comes and it gets warm, storm leaves and it gets cold lol. Same crap just a different year lol. Or the things come to far north. Just like this week, storm comes and its warm storm goes then it cools down....rinse, wash and repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Things can change but damn its gonna be one of those years again? Storm comes and it gets warm, storm leaves and it gets cold lol. Same crap just a different year lol. Or the things come to far north. Just like this week, storm comes and its warm storm goes then it cools down....rinse, wash and repeat! So far it's looking like that. It's a weird split flow kind of pattern that we usually see during El Nino. I'm hoping tonights 00z runs go back to showing cold air and a lot of storms but I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 So far it's looking like that. It's a weird split flow kind of pattern that we usually see during El Nino. I'm hoping tonights 00z runs go back to showing cold air and a lot of storms but I'm not counting on it. The way the storms are so far it reminds me of 07 with the ice storm storm patterns how they ejected into multiple pieces? Dont know or understand much but to me it just seems that way idk. Whats also weird is we are in a la nina pattern still arent we? Since I moved out here 6 years ago this is how every year seems to play out, take this with a grain of salt and just my rantings lol. Seems like we have 2 months that are extremely hot(july and august) then 2 weeks in september that are in between, then we get a break and its really nice for the last 2 weeks in september through the first 2 weeks of november...then we get weird weather with warm and semi cold. Then the last 2 weeks in december through the end of Feb. are cold. March it does the same thing until the last 2 weeks then it gets weird again then nice through june. Confusing i know but this is how it seems to setup almost every year now i been here and what my brain can remember. Its kinda like these cycle things that doug talks about in his blogs but his are written better and explained more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Don't look now but the 12z Euro today says it's going to be very white at 174-180 and probably past that as well. Big Winter storm. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ The reason is a stronger N stream system that drops colder air down through the area as the wave kicks out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ha!! I just saw that...and lucky you Jomo...Joplin right in the middle of it!!! LOL Is the Euro the better model to go with when it comes to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ha!! I just saw that...and lucky you Jomo...Joplin right in the middle of it!!! LOL Is the Euro the better model to go with when it comes to snow? It's too far out right now to tell. The GFS just has rain. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It's too far out right now to tell. The GFS just has rain. We'll see. Looks good for now at least. Keep it coming JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I like the new wunderground stuff....did you guys know there was some coupon code thing floating around the internet recently to upgrade your account free for a whole year? Dont know if its still available or not,,,,someone sent it to me and it did work and no ads or crap now so its nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I like the new wunderground stuff....did you guys know there was some coupon code thing floating around the internet recently to upgrade your account free for a whole year? Dont know if its still available or not,,,,someone sent it to me and it did work and no ads or crap now so its nice. yeah I saw that, don't think it worked for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 yeah I saw that, don't think it worked for me though. It was a lil finicky for me to get working but once i figured out where to put the code in it worked....hold on and ill see if i can find one that works....mine did and its add free for a year now, so much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ok Jomo I dont know if it still works but this is the code i used. FMUYZ But for the life of me i cant remember where i entered it now sorry man. Somewhere under account when you log in ok. If it dont work sorry but I will keep my eye open for another and let you know in the future if one comes up Ok heres what i did because I allready had a membership with them. If you have an existing account, click on "Settings" and then enter the code at the renew membership screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ok Jomo I dont know if it still works but this is the code i used. FMUYZ But for the life of me i cant remember where i entered it now sorry man. Somewhere under account when you log in ok. If it dont work sorry but I will keep my eye open for another and let you know in the future if one comes up Ok heres what i did because I allready had a membership with them. If you have an existing account, click on "Settings" and then enter the code at the renew membership screen. Well that was quick and easy, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Looks good for now at least. Keep it coming JoMo. Last time there was a storm at this range, the Euro backed off and went more towards the GFS. Nothing showing up really on the 18z GFS or it's ensembles. This seems like a tough 'thread the needle' type of situation since everything has to be in the proper place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ok Jomo I dont know if it still works but this is the code i used. FMUYZ But for the life of me i cant remember where i entered it now sorry man. Somewhere under account when you log in ok. If it dont work sorry but I will keep my eye open for another and let you know in the future if one comes up Ok heres what i did because I allready had a membership with them. If you have an existing account, click on "Settings" and then enter the code at the renew membership screen. It worked here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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