The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow. The snowfall map is impressive! Near a foot even into southern OK. About 16-17 inches in Bentonville and higher amounts north and west. Let's hope the Euro has something similar and this trend continues over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 andyhb, should I worry about severe weather Wednesday? Timmer seems to be calling for severe weather across mainly Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I think you should be fine, the instability will be hard to come by that far north (it is looking hard to come by even further south ), but as always with strong kinematics, trends will have to be watched. I do think a squall line is possible up there, SGF seems to agree with this idea (And lol Timmer). Oh, and by the way...the 12z Euro puts down 30-35" with that thing, just throwing that out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z euro crawls the L from s MO due north to n MO from hrs 192-228...MO, IA & most of MN has snow falling during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z euro crawls the L from s MO due north to n MO from hrs 192-228...MO, IA & most of MN has snow falling during that period. Yeah this run worries me. Good thing it's still so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah this run worries me. Good thing it's still so far out. euro has a strip of 2.5 qpf from your location north into IA...start out as rain for you but alot of it will be snow if the euro verifys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 euro has a strip of 2.5 qpf from your location north into IA...start out as rain for you but alot of it will be snow if the euro verifys. It was more about the GFS and Euro jumping west from their previous runs. We all know how these things like to trend NW in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It was more about the GFS and Euro jumping west from their previous runs. We all know how these things like to trend NW in time. yeah, i know....atleast we have something to track compared to last year. I need less than a inch of snow to beat my total of last winter which was a big 17"...unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 yeah, i know....atleast we have something to track compared to last year. I need less than a inch of snow to beat my total of last winter which was a big 17"...unreal. 17" is higher than the average amount we get in a year here.. How much do you average up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 17" is higher than the average amount we get in a year here.. How much do you average up there? the norm is around 45 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Edit: Un-f'ing believable as the 12z Euro goes way north. That storm is a beast. I did notice the 12z GFS did come in a bit colder for Christmas. The 850 MB freezing line is farther north than the temps, which leads one to believe that there may be some type of frozen precip or drizzle. It was also a little slower in ejecting the storm out of the west and the storm is a bit deeper. Christmas morning: Main system coming out and deepening as it heads across Arkansas and starts to lift north: And the next snowstorm may arrive by New Years with another "reload" at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Oh wouldn't this be nice for a change guys we need something to talk about. That track seems like an odd one to me or is it just me(the late xmas storm)? Things are gonna change for sure but I hope its for the better this time, Im sick of this warmth lol. Springfield hinting at some slop here tomorrow night into Thursday am, maybe a dusting to a half inch of slop snow possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 New euro sucks. Looks like the same damn storm that's moving through this week. Rain rain rain..then cold. It better not happen like that..geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 New euro sucks. Looks like the same damn storm that's moving through this week. Rain rain rain..then cold. It better not happen like that..geez. That was a vomit inducing run for sure. What's a couple hundred miles between runs though? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ...A LARGE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT... A RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STORM THEN APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BE PREPARED TO HAVE YOUR TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS CANCELLED OR CHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That was a by far the worst run I have seen from the Euro in quite some time...it was completely out to lunch and has to be considered the outlier for now...we can all hope, right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just looked at it. Way crazy run. Hope it was out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Does anyone have access to the Euro ensembles? Curious as to what they show, since the 12z op was so different than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That was a vomit inducing run for sure. What's a couple hundred miles between runs though? lol Yeah that was a stinker for sure, although I have my suspicions, the most obvious being the several hundred mile shift between two runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 All model guidance has been nothing short of atrocious here lately. Some credence is due for next week however as most of the global models are showing something in that timeframe. At the 7-9 day range I would cautiously side with the GFS as the Euro usually plays catch-up with the GFS. Inside of 5 days my money always rides with the Euro, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z gfs keeps the post christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 All model guidance has been nothing short of atrocious here lately. Some credence is due for next week however as most of the global models are showing something in that timeframe. At the 7-9 day range I would cautiously side with the GFS as the Euro usually plays catch-up with the GFS. Inside of 5 days my money always rides with the Euro, though. The good Dr. has been having issues as well. On the upcoming storm, it was the farthest southeast until last night's 00z run when it jumped back to being pretty close to the GFS position which had been more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Does anyone have access to the Euro ensembles? Curious as to what they show, since the 12z op was so different than prior runs. From another weather forum just read the euro ens have a deepening Memphis low with a lot of backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 00z GFS sucks as well...The storm forms well south and east due to the northern stream screwing things up. Congrats Mississippi this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 00z GFS sucks as well...The storm forms well south and east due to the northern stream screwing things up. Congrats Mississippi this run. what we do is take the 12z euro (way north), and the 00z gfs (way south) and average them out... so it puts it just right for us LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What the crap? That was a horrible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lol what terrible continuity between 12z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 See post #1461 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Now of course the GGEM has a 993 over SE MO at 192, tracking north and getting stronger like the earlier model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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